Reese Kaplan -- How Have the David Stearns Draft Picks Performed?

Yesterday we took a look at the one thing David Stearns has done well since taking charge of the Mets organizational structure.  While he has not done well at all in finding major league quality players he has accurately evaluated the caliber of the players he’s traded away (none of whom is truly making anyone feel regret). 

Please bear in mind the sheer odds against draft picks advancing to one of the 30 major league teams.  Various studies have been done to determine the likelihood of the ultimate success happening.  Of the 600 players drafted in 20 rounds in June each year, 97% of them will never make it to the majors.  Of the 3% who do, that amounts to just 18 players of 600. 

Today let’s take an early look at the two years thus far he’s been in charge of the collection of high school and college players who were available in draft to become eventual major leaguers if they progressed as hoped when selected.  It’s still early in the development process so most are still toiling in the minors.
 
In 2024 two of the picks opted to go to college and did not sign.  Let’s have a brief look at most of the the rest of them.  I’m leaving out players no longer with the Mets organization: 

• Carson Benge — taken as a somewhat rare two way player who was shifted exclusively to offense, Benge has already made it into that magic 18 number and appears not to be overmatched at all after a rough start to his rookie season.

• Jonathan Santucci appears to be one who will crack the major league plateau as well.  In 37 games (35 as a starting pitcher) he has an over .500 record a 3.41 ERA, a respectable 1.205 WHIP and 206 strikeouts in iin 174 innings pitched. 

• Young Eli Serrano III has had the equivalent combined of a single major league season while working his way up the minors.  The 12 HRs and 72 RBIs are pretty good but the low batting average suggests he needs to work on consistent contact. 

• Speedy Trey Snyder has 45 stolen bases over a couple of years and 508 ABs, but that’s where most of the highlights end.  He has hit 5 HRs and drive in 60, but only has managed to hit .228.  You can’t steal regularly if you have trouble getting on base.

• Slugging Corey Collins has clubbed 13 HRs and driven in 51 in 388 minor league at bats but has done so while hitting a combined .178.  All or nothing players seldom thrive but the power is worth watching if he can work on non home run swings effectively. 

• Starting pitcher Will Watson has had a commendable if not noteworthy ascent up the ladder.  He has a career minor league 3.81 ERA with a respectable WHIP while notching 164 Ks in 174 IP.

• Reliever Ryan Lambert has indeed posted some gaudy numbers.  Over 66 games he has earned a tidy 2.61 era with a 1.261 WHIP.  Most noteworthy is his fanning 110 batters in just 69 IP. 

• Starting pitcher Brendan Girton is hanging around the fringes with a 4.29 ERA and a 1.357 WHIP.  He has fanned better than 1 per inning pitched so there is some potential there.

• Nick Roselli has done a little of everything but hit for average.  In 414 ABs he has slugged 10 HRs and driven in 60 runs while also adding 10 SBs.  Unfortunately he did all of this at a Mendoza line batting average.

• Ethan Lanthier has a minor league ERA of 7.00.  Ugh!

• Starting pitcher R.J. Gordon has a minor league ERA of 4.42 with a WHIP of 1.362 and an average of about 1 K per IP.

• Pitcher Tanner Witt has been in 17 games thus far with an ugly 7.85 ERA.

• Pitcher Josh Blum has kept his ERA a tad under 4.00 over 43 games but the WHIP is high at 1.320 and he strikes out less than 1 per inning pitched.

• Batter Jacoby Long is slightly better than Nick Roselli as his minor league average is all the way up to .203.

• Starting pitcher Jace Hampson began his Mets minor league career with flashy numbers.  Over 9 starts he had a nice 2.79 ERA and a respectable 1.190 WHIP.  He did this without striking many out, but now is on the shelf after Tommy John Surgery.

In 2025 the Mets made a collection of 20 draft picks most of whom are not far enough along to make definitive conclusions:

• Speed burner Mitch Voit has had just 279 minor league ABs and is hitting a paltry .237.  However, he also has 8 HRs and 33 RBIs in roughly an aggregate of a half season’s worth of playing time.  What really catches your eye, however are the 43 swipes he’s made as a base runner.

• Another guys whose best attribute is his legs is Antonio Jimenez who has had 275 ABs while hitting 4 HRs and driving in 27.  The good number is his total of 17 SBs, but he did all of these things while hitting a combined .198.

• Pitcher Cam Tilly over 11 starts has earned a 4.56 ERA with less than a strikeout per inning pitched accompanied by a 1.305 WHIP.

• Starting pitcher Camden Lohman is off to a 6.17 ERA earned across 6 starts.  He has a 1.671 WHIP and struck out 28 in 23 innings pitched. 

• Another base runner Anthony Frobose has notched 8 SBs in 79 ABs but also has hit a paltry .203.

• Pitcher Tyler McLoughlin in 16 games has a 9.17 ERA and a WHIP of 2.170.  The only positive thing is 26 Ks in 19 IP. 

• Draftee Wyatt Vincent in 62 ABs has a .226 average not showing much run production nor speed.

• Pitcher Frank Camarillo is off to a start that should keep him around for a little while.  His 4.07 ERA is not great but the WHIP of 1.212 is good.

• Pitcher Conner Ware has frankly not been good as a starter.  He’s got a 5.80 ERA and a WHIP of 1.395 while striking out a hair over one per inning.

• Pitcher Zack Mack has had a nice start over 13 games with a 2.16 ERA, a 1.200 WHIP and 21 strikeouts in 16 innings pitched.

• Another base stealer who can’t seem to hit is Sam Robertson who, over 193 ABs has swiped 33 bases but shows no power whatsoever and is hitting just .193. 

• Starting pitcher Dillon Stiltner is suffering through a 13.50 ERA with a horrific WHIP of 2.438. 

• Pitcher Joe Scarborough is sporting a 4.64 ERA and an ugly 1.969 WHIP while fanning just under 1 per inning pitched.

• Hurler Garrett Stratton is still working his way up but has just a 2.48 ERA accompanied by a not too good WHIP of 1.316.  He has fanned 44 in 30 IP.  There’s some potential there.