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9/9/26

Reese Kaplan -- Are Mets Ready for a Bobby Bonilla Moment?


Every now and then you make a deal that simply does not work out for you.  It could be a bad trade, an ineffective manager or a questionable free agent signing. The old Mets have had a great many of them and often did very little to address the issue directly.  Yes, they did eventually terminate Bobby Bonilla but then set themselves up for an annual fat check of nearly $1.2 million bucks and they will continue doing so until 2035 when the remaining $5.9 million salary instead turned into $29.8 million with interest over the course of the 15 year payroll problem.

This past year many felt that players like Sean Manaea and Kodai Senga were mired in not even MLB-like productivity with fans and media after the front office to swallow hard and cut them loose.  Now in both cases the abilities have returned somewhat for Manaea and surprisingly well for new closer Senga, so not making the desired roster revisions actually worked out in the team’s favor.

As the Mets approach the 2027 season they have another critical roster decision to make in the form of elder second baseman Marcus Semien.  When he was acquired there was a mixed reception given the popularity of outgoing left fielder Brandon Nimmo and the alarming pay rate for Semien for dwindling output.  There was some overall payroll relief from this deal but the rate of pay for Semien did not bring warm and fuzzies to anyone looking for a silver lining to this deal.

How bad has it been for Semien?  Well, let’s start with the batting average.  For the 2026 season he’s providing a below replacement level .220.  His run production has been somewhat better with 14 home runs and 45 RBIs along with 10 stolen bases.  However, the former Gold Glover has looked pretty weak defensively.  Given that salary often dictates playing time, the Mets need to analyze where he fits not only in 2027 but in 2028 as well.

As a reminder, the guy with a 0.6 WAR is being paid $26 million this year for that paltry productivity and is due that same rate for 2027 as well.  In his upcoming age 37 season in 2028 the pay rate drops to a still nasty $20 million. 

Here’s where the issue of history versus paycheck comes into focus.  Brett Baty is an example of a player who’s never fulfilled his top draft pick status and after several years of spinning his wheels offensively his only value to the team right now is a minor league option and a minimal cost.  He is someone who the Mets may have to consider his fit as he’s proven he’s not a starting caliber player and it could be he’s either non-tendered or traded away.

The ugly flip side is Semien.  His output is not worthy of a starting role anymore yet his salary is prohibitive to try to peddle to another team as his career continues its rapid decline.  So does the front office acknowledge the reality of the situation and send him packing, taking the hit financially for the very poor decision to make that trade.

Of course, could it be that Bobby Bonilla Day becomes joined by Marcus Semien Season whereby the Mets wind up paying him off for many years simply not to have him don a Mets uniform again?  It would be an interesting development but it would seem that instead the plan is to at best turn him into the world’s most well paid bench player.  

3 comments:

  1. Two things about Marcus…he too finds Citi Field tough hitting wise: .205 at home, .230 on the. road. And Nimmo is 2.5 years younger than Semien, but owed 2 more years (thru 2030) than him.

    Semien put up his last big #s in 2023 and was very solid in 2024.

    Does Nimmo's age start to downgrade his production next year, when he turns 34 pre-season? He already is not the player, WAR-wise, that he was in 2022 and 2023? It already looks like Nimmo will have his lowest full season WAR this year (at 1.5, with just 17 games left). And his last 28 days, hitting just .186 after 0-5, with 4 Ks, last night.

    The Semien mistake started when Cohen and Stearns signed Nimmo to an 8 year, $160+ million deal running thru his age 37 season.

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    1. Stearns wasn’t around for the Nimmo signing, or the PCA trade, or the Ruf trade.

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  2. This is all the cost of the move that they made in the off-season. They knew what they had to spend and they did. Nothing can change that now, short of some other team accepting a trade to take on his salary (which won't happen). So with the cost sunk, the decision to play him or someone more productive seems easy. Have a seat, Marcus.

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