Sometimes it becomes very easy to get caught up in the emotions of performance issues to become irrationally positive or spitefully negative without looking more closely at all of the numbers, the alternatives in-house and the available free agents who could be brought on for money alone without sacrificing player personnel in trades.
One good example would be infielder/DH Mark Vientos who is out of options and never quite fulfilled his potential based upon his hot rookie campaign. With no ability to send him to the minors anymore most folks simply want him gone for the proverbial bag of balls at best or DFA’d just to get the roster spot made available since he’d not demonstrated a fit anymore. While you could make the case for him remaining on the roster, this projected outcome is readily understandable.
Where it goes awry is when the same ice cold wrath is directed at another young Mets player by the name of Francisco Alvarez. Between his defensive inconsistencies, his large number of injuries and his ice cold end of year offensive performance you hear the same sentiments being bandied about regarding the 25 year old backstop.
People do realize that at his age and with his long ball power he would command a return in trade so the DFA him noise thankfully has not been heard, but there are a number of issues that need to be considered before this emotional and potentially hasty banishment from Citi Field becomes a reality.
No catcher should be expected to play every single day like an infielder or outfielder might do. Still, on a 162 game average he would deliver 25 HRs and 72 RBIs while hitting .231. While the batting average is certainly not impressive, the run production metrics suggest he is certainly in the upper tier across all catchers in professional baseball.
The other red flag in his offensive game is strikeouts. Over that same span he would be whiffed 156 times. That’s not a good number but it’s not in the class of sluggers who sometimes eclipse the embarrassing 200K numbers.
So if the offensive game is being falsely attributed as being not even major league level, what about the defensive side of the game? Recently someone did an analysis of the numbers between the apparently defensively superior Luis Torrens as compared to the vilified Francisco Alvarez.
Surprisingly the gap was not nearly as big as you would have expected. There is no question that Torrens is a better glove and arm but offensively he is nearly non-existent.
The other reason the push-him-out-the-door crowd seems to omit is that there is no ready catcher alternative sitting in Syracuse waiting to ascend to the majors. For awhile former top prospect Kevin Parada looked as if he was finally turning the corner with his bat but his season ending numbers are better but not exactly spectacular.
The batting average was .251 and was accompanied by 6 HRs and 38 RBIs in 311 ABs. His over .300 hitting in Syracuse certainly caught a few eyes but the man is now still awaiting his rookie call after joining the Mets organization in 2022. We have all seen Hayden Senger who also provides superior defensive skills but the reason he’s never been more than an emergency call-up due to injury is his inability to generate any offense.
Behind them you have interesting candidate Chris Suero who provides surprising base running speed for a catcher (who can also play elsewhere on the field), but his offensive game is also very much a work in progress. In 2025 he caught attention with 16 HRs, 68 RBIs and 35 SBs while hitting a modest .233 combined. In 2026 he HRs and SBs increased but the batting average dipped to just .201. Keep an eye on him but don’t pencil him into the 2027 Mets as he has not yet even reached AAA.
In free agency the top name is former Met Travis d’Arnaud who hit .158 at age 38. Another former Met, James McCann is also available. No one else on the list is a starting caliber player either.
So if you hastily bid adios to Alvarez understand that you’re either accepting the career .228 hitting Luis Torrens to bat 9th or you’re going to have to engineer a trade for a better player using up resources who might be better used to fortify the rotation or the pen or the bench. Keep the inexpensive Alvarez around and hope he has a healthy 2027 season. He’s surely better than the ready alternatives.
No reason to toss Alvarez, unless a very viable alternative existed. The only one that might make sense is Cal Raleigh, off the top of my head. His incredible 2025 was followed by a lousy 2026.
ReplyDeleteVientos Made Simple:
Power? Top 10%
Speed? Bottom 10%
Fielding? Bottom 10%
On base %? Bottom 10%
Potential blossoming? 20%.
Keeper? 10% chance. In my book.
I believe that the biggest problem with Alvarez has been the injuries. For the most part, I believe, when fully healthy he is a top ten catcher. You noted that he appears to heal quickly. I believe that he has healed enough to start playing but not fully healed to play at his full capacity. It was pointed out in other places that his caught stealing stats were poor. He hurts his knee and the stat suffers. In a deeper dive into it reveals that upon his return, the stat was poor. A knee injury will do that. Given more time, the stat starts improving.
ReplyDeletePlus, like you pointed out, how to replace what you got.
Alvarez is not the primary problem. 1B, 2B, Sp1, SP3 (innings eater), BP leverage, BP2 leverage. 3B maybe (baty to start with Rojas on his arse if Bichette walks)
ReplyDeleteAlvarez has struggled, but the upside remains. I agree, catcher is one of the stronger positions on this team right now, and at acceptable cost. Will any in-house minor leaguers be ready to replace Alvarez in a year? We will know that better NEXT October.
DeleteAlvarez is not the primary problem. I would even rank having the right 4th outfielder is a higher priority. My points about Alvarez are all aimed at showing that he is not the long term answer, that he has his greatest trade value now, that he does not know how to manage a game well, continues to make dumb plays defensively, and has horrendous mechanics that will limit his long term success. He is not the answer; and yet, it always make sense to see what other teams believe about his potential and what he might be able to bring back through a trade. I consistently argue that he is the number 1 trade chip of those we might consider trading from our major league roster.
ReplyDeleteI continue to feel that my view on this has not been fully represented accurately. I also have reason to believe that there are those within the organization who have even stronger views than I do.
I would add that I have consistently advocated that Alvarez be sent to a body movement specialist, especially one who can help someone learn how to make desirable changes stick, to help Alvarez unleash his obvious potential.
I would add that 140K's is less than 200+ but to be fair, 25 HRs accompanying that is also considerably less than 40+
I think my videos from early in the season displayed my explanation of why he is so vulnerable to high heat and anything with diagonal spin from the outer 1/2 of the plate out. That isn't because of poor judgment; it's because of a poor movement pattern. And I think the eye test shows that over the course of the season that explanation has proved to be a highly accurate prediction as well.
I am concerned with the past and the present only insofar as it is a reliable predictor of future performance. If you see his mechanics the way I do then you are not likely to be correct in your predictions of his performance. That's it.
So that is why I consistently offer a two part solution. Look what you can secure in a trade while seeing if you can find someone to help him change his movement pattern.
I agree with you Jules. If he can bring back something more valuable, net of the dip in catching output then…
DeleteI guess Alvarez stays until something better comes along
ReplyDeleteMaybe Raleigh took steroids for his magical ride in 2025
Plan your team past the ASB and dump accordingly
I’m surprised there is any talk of cutting ties with Alvarez, considering the alternatives.
ReplyDeleteMy thinking is a bit different. Right now, Alvarez is not the clear starter. If you are building a team around pitching, which I believe you must do, you need the best catcher behind the plate most of the time -- especially with the younger pitchers. The veteran pitchers need the best defensive catcher; the young pitchers the best calming and calling of a game catcher. So if someone sees Alvarez as a No1 because of their views about his offensive potential, then you would be foolish not consider what they are willing to offer. The number 2 catchers on most teams catch 40 games at most and are usually better at defense than offense. We have a couple of catchers who fit that bill in the minors now and could trade for one if the heist for Alvarez is strong enough. I doubt it will be, and if not, there is no reason to trade him. But until he improves his mechanics to a more efficient movement pattern that leaves him less vulnerable at the plate to strikeouts and double plays, do not expect to see better than you are seeing now.
ReplyDeleteThat is my view.
Also, it is true that the Mets made him available at the deadline. To be sure they put a very high price on him that no one was interested in paying. But were he the future in their mind they never would have made him available. Keep that in mind. Strong and knowledgeable voices within the family/organization have much less optimistic long term views than I do. I believe he should be sent to amovement pattern specialist. They believe he doesn't have it in him to change