Trading Ike

Dave Rim has left a new comment on your post "Q&A: - More Mets Math": -         

Hi Mack, again, love the site. In my "math", I used WAR as a way to gauge runs created. (I regressed WAR on wins for 2010, which is small sample size but is much more conservative than other options). I don't like the RC stat which is the same exact thing but does not take into account variance in the coefficients year to year. Using last years stats, but replacing Bay and Beltran's numbers with their full season 2009 numbers, you end up with 86 wins -- but that is a somewhat conservative estimate. I used Castillo's 2010 year long stats, but replacing him with Tejada you end up with closer to 85 -- not a big difference.



photo by Rim

 However, this supposes that everyone, including Santana is healthy, and no one on the Mets pitching staff regresses. Since I believe this not to be the case, as it is now, I think the Mets probably hover around .500, if luck evens out (Bay/Beltran return to form, but Pelfrey/Niese/Dickey + bullpen regress). However, if we get really lucky, the playoffs are not out of the question, so I agree 2011 could be exciting -- just not likely in my opinion. The players most responsible for the good will remain with the Mets in 2012, however, leaving me very excited, because of the additional $50M in payroll. The reason why I dread 2011 is because of lots of things could derail 2012, e.g. trading prospects for short-term solutions, adding payroll for no good reason, and/or seeing some key rotation guys completely regress. Still a smart GM could do lots of really unpopular things in 2011 and get away with it in his honeymoon year -- so there is hope. Trading Ike for a good youngish right fielder or SP would be at the top of my to do list... Bautista? Markakis? Choo? Greinke? The worst thing for the 2012-2015 Mets may even be being a playoff team in 2011 and making moves for the sake of a pennant race.

Dave, excellent post...

The addition of saber stats has given us all a deeper look into production, and, as you pointed out, this is a .500 baseball team.

Ya know Dave, they all are .500 teams. An old coach told me once: every major league player on every major league team in every major league sport was the best in grade school, the best in the town, the best on the block, the best in high school, etc.

But some steal great players from the others, and they turn into .600 teams while the ones that lose the great players head for .400.


The Mets have around 10 great players. And, that's the amount they have had since 1996.

I'm going to stick to my sermon.

2011 will be a fun year, but NOT a playoff year. Too much old salary around. That's okay, take the garbage out, give them their check, get over it, and raise the price of hot dogs and parking.



photo by Michael G. Baron

 If you make this an exciting team, New Yorkers will go and root for them. You don't have to be a winner in New York. You have to be talented, fun, and interesting.

If Mets management stays focus, from year to year, they can get out of this rut.

Go back to the original Omar plan... two great players a year...

The holes are well known... 2B, RF, C, SP2, another SP, closer.

Fill two of them before 2011 starts. Okay, you don't have the money to do both of them via FA. So, package a deal around K-Thug with three more prospects, and go get a Grienke or whomever. Then, offer the world to Lee.

If the Yankees ace you on Lee, fine... move the bucks over to Carl Crawford.


Lastly, you got the 13th pick in the draft. Over slot. You want the best here, similar to the excellent move the Mets made with Mike Harvey. You passed on Yasmani Grandal in 2010... pick the best catcher in the country, Blake Swihart.

Either way, two of your slots are filled, the money comes off at the end of 2011, your payroll is under $110mil, and it's time to get to the phones and finish off this monster.

You can't do this in one year, but in two you could look like:

Ike Davis, Dan Uggla, Jose Reyes, David Wright, Josh Thole, Jason Bay, Angel Pagan, Carl Crawford, Johan Santana, Zack Grienke, Matt Harvey, Mike Pelfrey, Jenrry Mejia