Christopher Soto - Is R.A. Dickey the Next "Great" Knuckleballer?

Its April 2017, New York City is bustling with excitement as the Mets return for their home opener after playing the first 6 games in Florida and Atlanta winning 4 of 6. Mat Harvey, Zack Wheeler, and Jon Niese are all All-Star caliber pitchers anchoring a team that has tons of promise if they can only provide some run support for them.

However on this particular night, as I take my future son to his first game in Citi Field, its the fan favorite of many years taking the mound. He never tops 15 wins a year but he also never has over a 4.00 ERA. He's not a 98 MPH flamethrower like our closer Juerys Familia, he doesnt have a huge 12-6 curve like Niese, he's never created hype like Wheeler, Harvey, or Mejia, and he's never made more than $8MM a year. He just goes out every 5th day and throws 7 innings of good baseball.

"Starting for your 2017 New York Mets R. A. Dickeyyyyy!!!!!"

While this may be a huge stretch, it's honestly not outside of the realm of possibility. Knuckleballers have the unique ability to not only pitch deep into games regularly but to also

have long productive careers. Our most obvious comparison would be between to look at Tim Wakefield.

Wakefield, who begins his 20th season in the MLB at the tender age of 45 years old, was originally drafted in 1988 as a 1B. By 1990 it was apparent to him that he had no future in the majors at that position so he converted to a pitcher and picked up the knuckleball. He had immediate success with the pitch and helped the Pirates reach the NLCS. He also won Rookie Pitcher of the Year honors and would've been NLCS MVP had the Braves not come back late in Game 7 to win the series.

Despite his early success he was severely inconsistent and did not actually perfect the "art of knuckleballing" until he worked with famous knuckleballers Phil and Joe Niekro in 1995 when he signed with the Boston Red Sox and went on to become the leader in almost every major pitching category except wins (3rd behind Roger Clemens and Cy Young), K's (2nd behind Clemens), and appearances (2nd behind Bob Stanley).

Although this is only one example, there are 10 others who I would dub "great" knuckleballers. Amongst these greats are the two Niekros, Jim Bouton, Tom Candiotti, Eddie Cicotte, Jesse Haines, Charlie Hough, Dutch Leonard, Ted Lyons, and the ageless Hoyt Wilhelm. Amongst them the average career length is 19.5 yrs long, the average retirement age is 44 years old, and the average ERA is roughly 3.55. In fact the only knuckleballer not to retire in his 40's (Cicotte) was actually forced out of baseball after the Black Sox game fixing scandal of 1919. So according to the math above, Dickey should still have 7 years left on his arm of which perhaps 4 of them will be as an effective starter and 2 as an aging but useful reliever.

Knuckleballers have been known to be a tad bit quirky when it comes to their careers and/or personalities and Dickey is no different. Originally drafted in 1991 by the Rangers, it was determined that RA was born without a UCL which lost him over $700,000 in signing bonus money. The young Dickey was a "dime-a-dozen" prospect, 90 mph fastball, a so-so curve, and a

odd moving forkball that he referred to as "The Thing." After struggling through his first 10 years of professional baseball bouncing between the minors and the bigs, Dickey decided to look into "The Thing" a little. Turns out that the Thing was actually Dickey's most effective pitch right now, his hard knuckler.

Unlike knuckleballers of the past Dickey has developed both his hard knuckler, which clocks in at about 78-83mph, and a normal knuckler, which clocks in around 69-74mph. He has also messed around with a slow/eephus knuckler that has gone as slow as 59mph. These 3 pitches combined with his "harder than normal for a knuckleballer" 84-86mph fastball makes it almost impossible for batters to guess what pitch is coming. If the batter can pick up the speed of the pitch, the hard knuckler and fastball are so close in speed that it's hard to tell which is which until its too late. To make matters worse even if the batter picks up on the movement of the knuckler, there is 3 different speeds it could be moving at!

In the end, R.A. Dickey will NEVER be a Hall of Famer, or an ace, or even a #2 starter so Mets fans shouldn't expect it. However, I am fully confident that he can be the next great consistent year in and year out knuckleballer, anchoring and provided positive reinforcement to Generation K 2.0 from 2014 on. History is on his side and the Mets should probably cut him a deal similar to Wakefield's "rolling" 1 yr/$4MM extension in order to keep him in New York for as long as he's useful.

Fear not Mets fans there is at least some minor hope for 2012!!