I love this time of the year. Pitchers and catches are just down the road and fans and writers are both yelling "Let's Go Mets".
Every other writer on this site has a woody and can't wait for Andres Torres to hit 80 home runs and Dillon Gee throw consecutive perfect games.
I just can't buy into it.
Matt Garrioch, of MILB Prospects Blogspot, and MLB Bonus Baby, put out a list today of the top 100 baseball players in the game... under 25.
With apologies to Matt, I'm going to print the entire list here to make a point:
Top 100 Major Leaguers 25 and Under
Name
POS
1 Justin Upton OF
2 Clayton Kershaw P
3 Stephen Strasburg P
4 Eric Hosmer 1B
5 Mike Stanton OF
6 Michael Pineda P
7 Andrew McCutchen OF
8 Mike Moustakas 3B
9 Brett Lawrie 3B
10 Pablo Sandoval 1B
11 Jeremy Hellickson P
12 Buster Posey C
13 Mat Latos P
14 Dustin Ackley 2B
15 Desmond Jennings OF
16 Jay Bruce OF
17 Rick Porcello P
18 Freddie Freeman 1B
19 Jason Heyward OF
20 Lonnie Chisenhall 3B
21 Madison Bumgarner P
22 Brandon Belt 1B
23 Wilson Ramos C
24 Trevor Cahill P
25 Elvis Andrus SS
26 Jason Kipnis 2B
27 Tommy Hanson P
28 Neftali Feliz P
29 Aroldis Chapman P
30 Brett Anderson P
31 Craig Kimbrel P
32 Drew Storen P
33 Starlin Castro SS
34 Alex Avila C
35 Travis Snider OF
36 Austin Jackson OF
37 Brandon Beachy P
38 Andrew Bailey P
39 Ryan Perry P
40 Gordon Beckham 3B
41 Justin Smoak 1B
42 Chris Sale P
43 Jordan Walden P
44 Mike Minor P
45 Daniel Hudson P
46 Jordan Lyles P
47 Colby Rasmus OF
48 Ben Revere OF
49 Aaron Crow P
50 Domonic Brown OF
51 Chris Tillman P
52 Jemile Weeks 2B
53 Jose Tabata OF
54 Dayan Viciedo 3B
55 Mike Leake P
56 Logan Morrison OF
57 Pedro Alvarez 3B
58 Kyle Drabek P
59 Rubby De La Rosa P
60 Cameron Maybin OF
61 Tyler Chatwood P
62 Ivan Nova P
63 Anthony Rizzo 1B
64 Jonathon Niese P
65 Paul Goldschmidt 1B
66 Alcides Escobar SS
67 Peter Bourjos OF
68 Ike Davis 1B
69 Alex White P
70 Danny Espinosa SS
71 Brian Matusz P
72 Dee Gordon SS
73 J.D. Martinez OF
74 Eric Thames OF
75 Brett Wallace 1B
76 Derek Holland P
77 Hank Conger C
78 Michael Brantley OF
79 Josh Reddick OF
80 Henderson Alvarez P
81 Brandon Crawford SS
82 Kyle Blanks OF
83 Vance Worley P
84 Alex Sanabia P
85 Zach Braddock P
86 Kenley Jansen P
87 Danny Duffy P
88 Michael Saunders OF
89 Juan Francisco 3B
90 Alex Cobb P
91 Gerardo Parra OF
92 Eduardo Nunez SS
93 Jhoulys Chacin P
94 Jeanmar Gomez P
95 Fernando Martinez OF
96 Andrew Cashner P
97 Jose Altuve 2B
98 Chase D'Arnaud SS
99 Sean O'Sullivan P
100 Trayvon Robinson OF
This is a good list. It doesn't include a bunch of Bryce Harper types that are still in the minors. No, these have been active members of the 25-man squad for all 30 team.
So, how do the Mets stand?
Two.
Ike Davis and Jon Niese. Would have been 3, but F-Mart (#95) is now an Astro.
This is the same day that Baseball Prospectus came out with two lists... the top 10 LHP and top 10 RHP prospects in the minors.
Not one Met on the list.
Yeah, David Wright is still young and Matt Harvey and Zack Wheeler could have been on the list, but the fact is... they aren't because there are better players on other teams!
I can't even imagine walking into the clubhouse at St. Lucie and not seeing Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, and K-Rod. These are three genuine stars that gave this team the moxie needed to pull off a pennant. Do you honestly think I could look around the 2012 clubhouse and see enough top talent to go all the way?
I know I'm a prospect guy. but Jesus, do you know how many 'can't miss' players I have seen over 50 years?
Just in five years... Mark Cohoon, Tobi Stoner, Francesco Pena, Eric Beaulac, Eric Niesen, Nick Carr, Scott Moviel, Brant Rustich, Brad Holt, Robert Carson.
Folks... they don't make it until they make it.
And the list above are 100 players that are under 25-years old and have made it.
The Mets have two.
In fact, the Mets have more pitchers over 25 playing rookie ball than they have on this list.
Solution: The Mets are on a road to SP dominance.
Harvey and Wheeler (or visa-versa) are the SP1 and 2 from 2014-2018, all at minimal cost to the Mets.
Jeurys Familia and Jenrry Mejia both have the talent, but must work on developing ++ secondary pitchers in order to become a pro-starter. I have them both as the 2014-2018 8th-inning guy and closer
Jon Niese isn't a free agent until 2016. There is no better candidate for the SP5 slot.
Now, it gets tricky.
Two pitchers from a gaggle of Michael Fulmer, Cory Mazzoni, Tyler Pill, Logan Verrett, Alex Panteleodis, Christain Montgomery, Akeel Morris, Domingo Tapia, Juan Urbia, and Luis Mateo have begin to step up in 2012.
We're not done. Pedro Beato will be strectched out. Steve Matz and Zack Dotson are ready to step up. Greg Peavey and Erik Goeddel can't be counted out, Darin Gorski is the Victor Cruz on the team. And what about one of the 4-in-top-100 draft picks in the 2012 draft?
Oh, some (and probably, many) will wind up on the heap, but there is a remote chance there is enough pro-talent here for two rotations.
If that happens, you control your destiny at the every-day position level.
But, if you don't develop a top rotation, and keep fielding players with a bunch of "ifs" in your future, it's just not going to happen.
1 Justin Upton OF
2 Clayton Kershaw P
3 Stephen Strasburg P
4 Eric Hosmer 1B
5 Mike Stanton OF
6 Michael Pineda P
7 Andrew McCutchen OF
8 Mike Moustakas 3B
9 Brett Lawrie 3B
10 Pablo Sandoval 1B
11 Jeremy Hellickson P
12 Buster Posey C
13 Mat Latos P
14 Dustin Ackley 2B
15 Desmond Jennings OF
16 Jay Bruce OF
17 Rick Porcello P
18 Freddie Freeman 1B
19 Jason Heyward OF
20 Lonnie Chisenhall 3B
21 Madison Bumgarner P
22 Brandon Belt 1B
23 Wilson Ramos C
24 Trevor Cahill P
25 Elvis Andrus SS
26 Jason Kipnis 2B
27 Tommy Hanson P
28 Neftali Feliz P
29 Aroldis Chapman P
30 Brett Anderson P
31 Craig Kimbrel P
32 Drew Storen P
33 Starlin Castro SS
34 Alex Avila C
35 Travis Snider OF
36 Austin Jackson OF
37 Brandon Beachy P
38 Andrew Bailey P
39 Ryan Perry P
40 Gordon Beckham 3B
41 Justin Smoak 1B
42 Chris Sale P
43 Jordan Walden P
44 Mike Minor P
45 Daniel Hudson P
46 Jordan Lyles P
47 Colby Rasmus OF
48 Ben Revere OF
49 Aaron Crow P
50 Domonic Brown OF
51 Chris Tillman P
52 Jemile Weeks 2B
53 Jose Tabata OF
54 Dayan Viciedo 3B
55 Mike Leake P
56 Logan Morrison OF
57 Pedro Alvarez 3B
58 Kyle Drabek P
59 Rubby De La Rosa P
60 Cameron Maybin OF
61 Tyler Chatwood P
62 Ivan Nova P
63 Anthony Rizzo 1B
64 Jonathon Niese P
65 Paul Goldschmidt 1B
66 Alcides Escobar SS
67 Peter Bourjos OF
68 Ike Davis 1B
69 Alex White P
70 Danny Espinosa SS
71 Brian Matusz P
72 Dee Gordon SS
73 J.D. Martinez OF
74 Eric Thames OF
75 Brett Wallace 1B
76 Derek Holland P
77 Hank Conger C
78 Michael Brantley OF
79 Josh Reddick OF
80 Henderson Alvarez P
81 Brandon Crawford SS
82 Kyle Blanks OF
83 Vance Worley P
84 Alex Sanabia P
85 Zach Braddock P
86 Kenley Jansen P
87 Danny Duffy P
88 Michael Saunders OF
89 Juan Francisco 3B
90 Alex Cobb P
91 Gerardo Parra OF
92 Eduardo Nunez SS
93 Jhoulys Chacin P
94 Jeanmar Gomez P
95 Fernando Martinez OF
96 Andrew Cashner P
97 Jose Altuve 2B
98 Chase D'Arnaud SS
99 Sean O'Sullivan P
100 Trayvon Robinson OF
This is a good list. It doesn't include a bunch of Bryce Harper types that are still in the minors. No, these have been active members of the 25-man squad for all 30 team.
So, how do the Mets stand?
Two.
Ike Davis and Jon Niese. Would have been 3, but F-Mart (#95) is now an Astro.
This is the same day that Baseball Prospectus came out with two lists... the top 10 LHP and top 10 RHP prospects in the minors.
Not one Met on the list.
Yeah, David Wright is still young and Matt Harvey and Zack Wheeler could have been on the list, but the fact is... they aren't because there are better players on other teams!
I can't even imagine walking into the clubhouse at St. Lucie and not seeing Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, and K-Rod. These are three genuine stars that gave this team the moxie needed to pull off a pennant. Do you honestly think I could look around the 2012 clubhouse and see enough top talent to go all the way?
I know I'm a prospect guy. but Jesus, do you know how many 'can't miss' players I have seen over 50 years?
Just in five years... Mark Cohoon, Tobi Stoner, Francesco Pena, Eric Beaulac, Eric Niesen, Nick Carr, Scott Moviel, Brant Rustich, Brad Holt, Robert Carson.
Folks... they don't make it until they make it.
And the list above are 100 players that are under 25-years old and have made it.
The Mets have two.
In fact, the Mets have more pitchers over 25 playing rookie ball than they have on this list.
Solution: The Mets are on a road to SP dominance.
Harvey and Wheeler (or visa-versa) are the SP1 and 2 from 2014-2018, all at minimal cost to the Mets.
Jeurys Familia and Jenrry Mejia both have the talent, but must work on developing ++ secondary pitchers in order to become a pro-starter. I have them both as the 2014-2018 8th-inning guy and closer
Jon Niese isn't a free agent until 2016. There is no better candidate for the SP5 slot.
Now, it gets tricky.
Two pitchers from a gaggle of Michael Fulmer, Cory Mazzoni, Tyler Pill, Logan Verrett, Alex Panteleodis, Christain Montgomery, Akeel Morris, Domingo Tapia, Juan Urbia, and Luis Mateo have begin to step up in 2012.
We're not done. Pedro Beato will be strectched out. Steve Matz and Zack Dotson are ready to step up. Greg Peavey and Erik Goeddel can't be counted out, Darin Gorski is the Victor Cruz on the team. And what about one of the 4-in-top-100 draft picks in the 2012 draft?
Oh, some (and probably, many) will wind up on the heap, but there is a remote chance there is enough pro-talent here for two rotations.
If that happens, you control your destiny at the every-day position level.
But, if you don't develop a top rotation, and keep fielding players with a bunch of "ifs" in your future, it's just not going to happen.
Great post.
ReplyDeleteDon't really get these lists. E.g 1Bmen: Is it that Ike is now considered damaged goods? F-Mart syndrome?
ReplyDeleteFrom what we've seen (albeit it hasn't been enough), Davis is closer to Hosmer than he is to Rizzo or Goldschmidt whom he is ranked behind and he's shown more than (probably higher ceiling guys like) Belt & Smoak. And no Yonder Alonso on the list?
The Mets aren't going to produce many stars...I think they'll produce a very good 1-19 or 1-20 of the 25-man and import the rest.
ReplyDelete