Q and A - Mets 11th Pick

Hey Mack:

Hope you have a great Easter Sunday and I wish you and your family health and happiness...

Onto the question... I know it's still early, but from looking at some of the Mocks, I

think we can get an idea of who could still be available for the Mets

when they pick.  Can you make a list of maybe three guys that should

be available and write a little bit about why the Mets shouldn't pass

them up?

Can you also name one player that shouldn't be available when they

pick, but also has the best chance of actually landing in their lap? I

mean, is there a player that teams might pass on the should go top 5?

Thanks,

Charley

Mack: 

Happy Easter to you, and yours, also Charlie, and thank you for your donation.

This may be a long one.

I covered this recently in a post, but things change every weekend. All the prospect pitchers pitch on Friday and the everyday players have their 3-game weekend series to impress. It’s also April 1^st and we have just a little more than two month left before the draft.

A few general observations first.

1 – The talent pool in this draft is limited. There is a big drop off after the top 50 players and, if you want a chance at either a star or every day major league player, you need to not fuck around and draft big early.

2 – College pitchers are stepping up big time. They have a distinct advantage over the high school kids at this time of the year because they can be evaluated against quality competition. The high school kids are building up stats against regional teams filled with piss-pour small town players and they can’t be evaluated like they could during the travel ball/showcase period when they played against the best in the region.

In no particular order, your crème de la crème list includes Stanford’s Mark Appel, Indiana State’s Sean Manaea, Oklahoma’s Jonathan Gray, Vanderbilt’s Kevin Ziomek, Mississippi’s Bobby Wahl, Arkansas’ Ryne Stanek, Florida’s Jonathan Crawford, and Jacksonville’s Chris Anderson.

Somewhere mixed in with the above list will also be high school pitchers like Clinton Hollon, Jordan Sheffield, Kohl Stewart, Stephen Gonsalves, Trey Ball, amd Ian Clarkin.

All 14  of these will be gone in the first round.

This also is considered a talented catcher draft, with two graded ‘A’ high schoolers leading the way (Reese McGuire, Jonathan Denny). The next four ranked catchers are also high school players (Jeremy Martinez, Nick Ciuffo, Brian Navaretto, Chris Okey) followed by California’s Andrew Knapp and Mississippi’s Stuart Turner. I expect four of these to be gone in the first round with both McGuire and Denny in the top 10.

Outfield wise, high school rivals Austin Meadows and Clint Frazier will be long gone by the time the Mets pick. Either one could go number one in the draft. In addition, San Diego 3B Kris Bryant is now playing and projected to a corner outfielder and he now looks to be a lock in the first ten picks. Other potential first rounders look to be Stanford’s Austin Wilson, Fresno State’s Aaron Judge, Samford’s Philip Ervin, and high schoolers William Abreu, Justin Williams, and Ryan Boldt.

Now, back to your question.

In my opinion, Appel, Manaea, Gray, Bryant, Frazier, Meadows, McGuire, and Denny will be gone.

All indication is that North Carolina 3B/1B Collin Moran is also expected to go in the first ten picks. He is currently considered the top bat in the draft. 

That’s nine players and the Mets pick 11^th.

Of what’s left, here’s my “top 3”:

            RHP Ryne Stanek – Stanek started out this mock season in the top 5 and some had him even as the top pick. He hasn’t pitched bad, but it’s just that others have pitched better and the scouting world expected more out of him this season. Current stats have him with: 6-starts, 2-1, 2.35, 30.2-IP (5 innings per start), 27-K, 14-BB (far too high), .219 b/ave. Don’t get me wrong. This is a big time pitcher with a lot of stuff. 92-94, 96 fastball… breaking ball looks like a curve… 84-87 ¾ slot slider… he could easily start the season in Savannah and finish in St. Lucie. His ETA would be right behind Noah Syyndergaard.

           

            CF Austin Wilson – Wilson was also ranked in the top five picks this year and consistently the second outfielder behind Meadows, Two things happened. One, he simply had an unproductive (in the eyes of the scouts and his critics) summer and created a climate of uncertainly about his attitude, and, he became injured (elbow). He also needs to work on his swing mechanics, but this is a 5-tool centerfielder that only comes around once a draft. Comparison: Jackie Bradley Jr.

            OF Phillip Ervin – I’ve been following this guy all season and he’s a beast. Stat line as of last night: .391/.522/.759, 8-HR, 20-RBI, 87-AB, 16-K, 23-BB. Ervin is a natural centerielder who does it all and could easily report directly to Savannah.

Lastly, who could drop and fall into the Mets hands?

You might think I’m (and John Sickles) is crazy, but LHP Sean Manaea could be available at 11.

Of course, the Met will under-slot another shortstop.