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6/4/13

Mack Ade – Morning Report – 6-4-13


David Lennon on the new Harvard baseball execs -

Adam Fisher, who once hired Stearns to be a Mets front-office intern, graduated in 2001 from Harvard with a degree in American history, wrote his senior thesis on Jackie Robinson and currently is the manager of baseball operations in Flushing. Paul DePodesta, Harvard class of 1995 and former GM of the Dodgers, works alongside Fisher as the Mets' vice president of player development and scouting. Sandy Alderson, his boss, is a graduate of Harvard Law School and is considered the pioneer of a still-evolving movement that has made Major League Baseball as much a landing spot for the nation's best and brightest as Silicon Valley or Wall Street.”

                And, the combined amount of World Series wins by these guys are…


Michael Freire to...
Mack:
You have been a proponent of the axiom "good pitching beats good hitting", based upon your previous posts and replies to other reader's comments.   You only have to look on the west coast at the San Francisco Giants, who have won two out of the last three World Series, despite having a rather pedestrian offense.   I bet if you looked back at the last decade or two of World Series Champions, you will find more teams that have excellent pitching staffs, then teams that simply bash the hell out of the ball, but end up playing in high scoring games.  "Run suppression" is the name of the game and it has been consistently successful in the National League, not to mention it would fit perfectly at a big ballpark like Citifield.
On that topic, I think it is pretty obvious that Sandy's goal is to construct a team that can shut the opposition down.    I am not giving him credit for coming up with the idea, but the man should be given some props for recognizing that "winning formula" and implementing the same with our beloved Mets.    That concept, more than the whole "Moneyball" reference, is truly the driving force behind most of the recent decisions that have been made.
I am as impatient as the next person and I do not enjoy watching the parent club struggle, as they have for the last six or seven years.   But, I do think there is hope and it is not that far away.
Ignore the parent club for a moment and focus on the string of minor league teams that are currently playing in Las Vegas, Binghamton, St Lucie and Savannah, also known as the middle and upper minor league system.   Granted, before you focus too much on the listed teams, everyone knows that the goal of the lower and middle tier teams should be player development and teaching fundamentals.   Winning ballgames is nice, but isn't necessarily the main goal.
However, if you have a farm system that pitches well, fields well and can draw walks and put offensive pressure on the opposition,  you SHOULD win ballgames, even as a byproduct of your main efforts.   In turn, that is also reflective of the quality of the players and coaching that exists in those cities.
Putting all of the "fancy speak" aside, it is rational to think that success in the minor leagues should translate into future and SUSTAINED success at the major league level.   For example, a strong ball club at AA (Binghamton) should give you hope of future success from the same players in a season or two, as they climb the ladder and make it to Queens.
Before I get to the main point, I am aware that a large percentage of the players in the aforementioned cities will never make it to the parent club.   However, I think having as much talent as possible, in as many places as possible will ensure that SOME of them will make it and be the players we all hope they will be.   Major league pitching staffs are only 12 or 13 pitchers deep, so you don' t need to hit on all of your prospects.
OK, as of this morning (06-02-13), here are the records of the minor league teams we are "hanging our hopes" on;
 
Las Vegas (AAA)  28-26
Binghamton (AA)  32-24 (most wins in the Eastern League)
St Lucie (A+)    29-23  (with very little offense)
Savannah (A)  33-22 (in a huge ballpark)
 
You will notice that the records generally seem to get better, the lower you go.     I think that mirrors the talent in our system, especially the pitching side of the equation where we are getting quite "deep" in talent.   If you put the four teams together, record wise, you end up with a composite record of 122-95.   This equates to a minor league winning percentage of 0.562, when extrapolated across a normal major league season of 162 games, equals a record of 91-71.    I would be pretty happy of the parent club started putting up 91 win seasons and I also think a 91-71 record would put you in the playoffs, at least as a wild card.
One other thing to consider is the term compression, meaning that the best players from the listed teams will rise to the top and all be a part of ONE team, not four different squads.   This means that the parent club should be even better then the listed composite winning percentage, when the time comes.  Matt Harvey was just the start and we should have Zack Wheeler to look forward to very soon.
That is the proverbial "rub" isn't it?    As fans, we just need to be patient and allow the natural progression to occur.   I look at 2013 as "paying our dues", or "paying it forward" as fans.   As much as it sucks right now, it will be that much better when 2014, 2015 and beyond finally get here.

Mack – You just said a mouthful. 
 
I truly believe that the template for this team is not Moneyball, but the Giants. At least it is under Alderson and Company. I’m not sure if Omar and Jerry had any central plan other than to spend the Wilpon’s money.
I’m glad you pointed out the primary purpose of minor league teams. Trust me, all the players on each team want to win every game, but it really is secondary to the hitting and pitching coaches. Their jobs is to make each player better, each better player into a prospect, and each prospect into a star.
 
The most important stat I can tell you is that Savannah led the league in 2012 and 2011 in lowest ERA and lowest WHIP, and St. Lucie had the lowest team ERA and WHIP in 2012. I’ve learned not to get excited about stats in the lower levels, but these are pretty impressive.
I sat with a scout last home stand who told me that the entire current St. Lucie rotation will become successful major league pitchers. If that the kind of talk that’s going on around baseball… well… the phone is definitely going to start ringing one of these days for some of these guys.
 
Michael, this is the team that is being built, but ‘we’ must first fill in our own ‘holes’ in the rotation. Zack Wheeler will be peg #3 (Harvey, Niese) and Rafael Montero will most probably be peg #4, but, after that, there probably will be around a season before another potential SP1-3 is developed. Oh, there will be plenty of SP5s (Gee, Verrett, Mazzoni, deGrom), but don’t be surprised the Mets don’t open up the checkbook for someone like Matt Garza, or draft a fast mover like Ryne Stanek. Trust me, if you want a lot of bats, develop a lot of pitchers.
While we’re on the subject… a lot of the players read this web site and I try not to be too harsh, but the current Mets system simply doesn’t have a single bat that projects as a guaranteed future star in this game. Oh, there’s a few that have impressed all of us and, with some hard work, a couple could turn out to be a huge success, but, right now, nobody is jumping off the stat sheets as a sure bet. And, don’t quote me A-ball stats. I’ve seen too many of them over the years. I get excited after three years of decent stats including the critical AA-level.
This is why I consider someone like Rafael Montero a future star in this ‘business’. He’s eating up the level that most pitchers never get past and I’m talking about pitchers that dominated in places like Brooklyn and Savannah.

Find me one more Montero and the race is on.

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