Reese Kaplan - Conventional Wisdom, Moneyball and the Mets

A number of years ago the Mets completed one of the greatest fleecings in baseball history when they traded the immortal Rick Ownbey and the erratic Neil Allen for the personal demon-plagued Keith Hernandez.  How soon thereafter did Hernandez close the book on his hard partying ways is anyone’s guess, but if you asked anyone to name the best first baseman in Mets history it would be hard to pick anyone other than Mex.

If you look at the man’s career you find that he was a very solid contact hitter with moderate power and a good eye, having walked 100 times in one season and only once striking out over 100 times.  In his MVP year he hit a mere 11 HRs, but drove in 105 runs while batting a robust .344. 

These days if you look at the first base landscape it’s littered with sluggers, guys like our own Ike Davis who last year hit 32 HRs and drove in 90 while struggling to hit .227 and whiffing 141 times.   I think most people would have taken Hernandez over Davis in a heartbeat.

However, the new conventional wisdom states that the corner infielders are power hitting positions.  That leads to people like Carlos Pena who has hit as many as 46 HRs in a season while sporting a career AVG of .233.  Another good example is prodigious slugger Adam Dunn who has hit a mere .238 for his career.

Third base has become a similar bastion of home run hitters like Pedro Alvarez, Miguel Cabrera, Chris Davis and to a lesser extent David Wright.  However, it wasn’t that long ago that 3^rd base was manned by people like Pete Rose who never hit more than 16 HRs in his career but did finish with a .303 career average.  Given the thinking today, would he even be given the opportunity to start and show what he could do?

This concept of conventional wisdom occurred to me when we witnessed the early success Josh Satin has had while filling in for Ike Davis.  Who knows what he could do if he had 500 ABs to prove himself but his minor league numbers suggest someone similar to Mex (without the Gold Glove defense, of course).  Doesn’t the Moneyball philosophy value getting on base (via walk or hit) more than it does power? 

Terry Collins, however, seems to buy into the Earl Weaver school of managing where the three run homer reigns supreme.  There was a perfect case during Monday’s 15 inning marathon where there were runners in scoring position late in the game with a lefty on the mound and Davis due up.  Satin was sitting on the bench where he had a great view of Davis grounding out weakly to end the inning.  Davis is hitting .154 against lefties whereas Satin is hitting .448 against lefties. 

A lot of baseball purists disparage the concept of Fantasy Baseball as something for frustrated wannabes to use to feel empowered since they can’t do it themselves on the diamond.  I used to play the game myself regularly and my philosophy is I would rather have eight players who hit 20 HRs and drove in 80 RBIs than I would 1 or 2 stars and a bunch of warm bodies filling out the rest of the roster.  That approach led me to winning the vast majority of the time I played that game. 

Maybe it’s time for the Mets to stop talking about Moneyball and actually embracing it.