Mack Ade – AM Report – 8-2-13 – First Base, Gaby Almonte, Jerrod Riggan, Tim Lavigne, Eddie Kunz

 

The Atlanta Braves magic number is 44.

 

A very successful rehab outing for Jon Niese last night... 4.0-IP, 0-R, 2 hits, 1 walk, 4 Ks. There's no rush here. I would be nice to have him back by the middle of the moth and slotted in between Harvey and Wheeler (followed by Mejia and Gee).

 

Let’s continue where we left off yesterday morning on what is happening to baseball, how the Mets are adjusting to it, and how do the Mets project for the remainder of the decade based on these changes.

There are a few constants we can all agree on at this point:

                1 – The last time I looked, if you score more runs than the team you are playing against, you win the game.

                2 – Most teams in baseball are trying to build around young, team controlled pitching

                3 – The Mets currently have only two players (3B David Wright and LHSP Jon Niese) under a long term contract

The Mets must align their current organization based on the best talent, the length he will be under team control, age, and rank by projection. We’re not trying to determine if we have a great player at every position. We’ve just trying to align them by their current talent and projectability. Only then can we determine both the long and short term needs of this position.

Let’s start with first base.

                Short Range – as of right now, the Mets have three options:

                                Ike Davis – 26-yrs. old - $3.125mil/2014 – ARB-1

                                Lucas Duda – 27-yrs. old – ARB-1/2015

                                Josh Satin – 28-yrs. old -                              

                Long Range – four stand out as possible candidates:

                                Wilmer Flores – 21-yrs. old - #8 Prospect – ETA: 2014

                                Dominic Smith – 18-yrs. old - #7 Prospect – ETA: 2017

                                Jayce Boyd – 22-yrs. old - #19 Prospect – ETA: 2015

                                Matt Oberste – 22-yrs. old –

This was supposed to be a position we didn’t have to worry about this decade. The decline of Davis, both offensively and mentally has us all second guessing what to do this off-season when it comes to offering him arbitration again. It seems obvious that the amount that will be offered will be less than he is being paid this year. I had become a big Davis fan after first grumbling when he was drafted, but, unless I see some .400+ BA upsurge for the remainder of the 2013 season, my vote would be to cut fish here and move on.

That being said, the real true first base prospect (Smith) won’t be ready for three more seasons; however, we could be doing a lot worse than be asking the current RBI leader of the AAA-Pacific Coast League (Flores) to fill in for him until Smith is ready. Yes, it’s the hitting-happy PCL, but so does every other player in that league hit there, and Flores has knocked in more runs than any of them. Why would anyone question this move? It immediately inserts a much needed + bat into the Mets lineup (no, I don’t want to talk about the defense on that side of the infield).

Having thee of your top 20 prospects all being first basemen is pretty special. I like where the team sits right now with this position, both short and long term.

 

We need to add the name Gaby Almonte to the ever-growing list of Mets prospect starters in the system. Almonte, who turns 21 later on this month, comes out of the DSL system, where he pitched for two years… 2011: 13-G, 9-ST, 3.00… 2012: 16-G, 5-ST, 2.42. This year, he’s pitched in 7 games (5 starts), including yesterday where he threw five scoreless innings (1.72). The numbers keep getting better as the level gets higher. We may have something here.

 

The last thing I’m trying to do here is diminish the feats of Binghamton relief pitcher Jeff Walters, but we need to take a deep look at the record he has broken (most saves in a single season for Binghamton) and about to break (most total saves overall).

Walters 30^th save on Tuesday added to the most saves in one season. The old record was Jerrod Riggan (2000) with 28.

The most career saves regardless of how many years is 36, set by Tim Lavigne. Walters is currently tied for second place (30) with Eddie Kunz (2008, 2010).

Great relief pitchers that went on to great major league careers, right?

Well, Riggans pitched in 35 games for the 2001 Mets (3-3, 3.40), and pitched in the Mets, Cleveland and Japan Central League through 2005. His four league major league stats were 67-games but no saves.

Lavigne never had a dominant year for Binghamton, but he did pitch parts of five seasons for them. The most saves per season were 11 in 2003.He pitched Indy ball in 2009-2010 and ended his career in 201o in the Mexican League. He never pitched a major league inning.

And Kunz, the darling of the 2008 season, pitched 2.2 innings for the Mets that same year (13.50) and never recovered. His career ended last season in the AAA-PCL league for San Diego (21-G, 6.35, 0-saves).

The point is… none of these guys went on to a successful major league career which makes one wonder if there is  Binghamton jinx going on somewhere in that pen. Walters seems to have the talent to succeed though we probably will have to wait until 2015 to see.

 

One last thing… blogs are not the normal source for inside information, nor do you see much exclusive news coming out of them that are accurate. There is an unhealthy race to be the first to report something by a couple of the better known blogs out there. My suggestion, when you hear or read something that catches off guard, turn to either Adam Rubin or Matt Cerrone to see what they are reporting. You don’t see much inaccurate reporting going on there.