Let’s face it when it comes to position players on the 25 man roster the Mets make a lackluster trading partner. Short of dealing the face of the franchise, David Wright, the only Met of any real value in the starting nine is Daniel Murphy. That’s it. Don’t kid yourself into thinking that there’s a market of any kind for the Davis’, Duda’s, Tejada’s or Flores’ of the world because there is not. Lagares and TDA are intriguing at best, and it’s highly unlikely the Mets would move them anyway. No, aside from foolishly gutting a rotation made thin by the loss of Matt Harvey, the only current Met of value to build a trade around is “Murph.”Also, the Free Agent class of 2014 isn’t exactly breathtaking either. The Mets could overspend on a Stephen Drew, Marlon Byrd, (fill in the blank with the Free Agent of your choice) or make a trade. There are no other choices. It’s either A or B. The Mets needs are numerous, but the most pressing is a power bat in one of the corner OF spots. It’s what sits atop Sandy Alderson’s holiday shopping list filled with names like Ethier, Kemp, Braun, Gonzalez, Stanton-acquiring any of these are just hot stove pipe dreams. But I’m going to add a player’s name to Sandy’s list who is eminently available, and is just a year removed from a 30+ HR season while playing in a park even more than vast than Citi Field. Chase Headley.
But isn’t he a third basemen? Yes, but let’s not forget he played LF for the Pads in 2008-09. The Mets may not have to make that much a commitment to him either. He still has a year on his contract so they could see how he performs and sign him during the season or let him walk after 2014. You could probably center a trade around Murphy and Gee. Yes, losing Gee would further thin out the rotation but you wouldn’t be giving up a Wheeler, Syndegaard or Montero-and in scenarios involving the other power hitters mentioned above, the Mets would almost certainly have to part with one of them. As for the Padres, Murphy is an instant upgrade over Logan Forsythe, Gyorko slides over to 3B and Gee slips nicely into the SP3 slot in an improving San Diego rotation. The Mets solve their OF power shortage, providing a bat to protect Wright in the line-up, vastly upgrading the 2014 offense.
Alderson is no stranger to Headley either. He was CEO of the team when Headley was drafted in 2005. I like this move much better than rolling the dice on Byrd coming close to his career year of 2013 or bringing a still talented but aging Beltran back for round two in Flushing (he seems more into transferring to the Bronx anyway). Also, in this scenario, the Mets could give Ike one more shot at 1B, and if it pans out, they have two sluggers capable of 25-30 HR in the middle of their line-up. It also gives the Mets a chance to see what Flores can do at 2B. Additionally, if the Mets tank in 2014, and haven’t signed Headley yet, they could move him at the trading deadline in July.
A potential Mets line-up with Chase Headley could look like this:
1b-Ike Davis
2b-Wilmer Flores
*SS-Stephen Drew?
3b-David Wright
C-Travis d’Araund
LF-Chase Headly
CF-Juan Lagares
*RF-Nelson Cruz?
*SS and RF are guesses but this is a line-up that could challenge for a WC in 2014. It might be worth giving Tejada another shot because although the 2015 FA class is uninspiring, there is a strong group of SS potentially available.
I like the way you think.
ReplyDeleteInteresting idea. Really depends on what San Diego is looking for. Win now would be Gee & Murphy. Long term could be Flores & Montero.
ReplyDeleteMaybe a young bullpen arm also. I like the idea though.
I totally agree with your assessment of the "pipe dreams". Acquiring Nelly Cruz, or somone similar for RF, would be necessary, too. Problem is, Murph was our most productive, durable bat, outside of HR's...
ReplyDeleteMurphy and Gee have established themselves as ML models of consistency. Both have a good shot at getting better as the years pass. Headley had one ridiculous year sandwiched by a lot of mediocre numbers and a lot of Ks and that was in SD, not the pressure cooker of NY. I can see trading up for Headley and hoping for the best, but not giving up either Murphy or Gee. Prospects, OK. Could turn out to be a good trade. And you bring up a good point: Aldersons association with Headley - might happen.
ReplyDeleteI can see your point but the Mets don't want to mortgage their long-term future for the short-term. Sure, in a way you're doing that in a deal such as the one I proposed but you're not parting with any of the big three arms nor any of the highly regarded ones coming up the system. The Mets are thin when it comes to position player prospects and would be foolish to part with any of their young arms at this time.
ReplyDeleteAlso, the Padres aren't really interested in prospects but they do have three specific needs: (1) move Headley's contract to free up 3B for Gyorko, (2) acquire a 2B and (3) add a middle of rotation starter-this move fits the bill. The Mets need corner OF production. Even if Headley performs somewhere between his 2012 and 2010 season, you're still looking at 15-20 HR, 10-12 SB, 800 OPS-a marked improvement over everyone but Byrd in the 2013 OF.
The Mets are in the precarious position of building for the future while also having to show marked improvement in 2014. This isn't a perfect trade and there's risk that Headley could flop but the team needs to compete in 2014 without sacrificing their post-2014 future. As much as I like Gee and Murphy, they are the best trade chips the Mets have unless you consider moving Wheeler, Syndegaard or Montero-which would be a major mistake IMHO and wisely not one I see this FO making.
Thanks Mack! I'll be writing about my idea on how they could possibly acquire another, even bigger bat, via trade in next weeks piece.
ReplyDeleteI think they need to give Flores the 2B job. His ceiling as a hitter is much higher than Murphy, and pretty much anyone not named Wright of the position players on the 25 man roster. There's really nothing else he needs to prove at AAA.
ReplyDeleteConsider this: Murphy's WAR this season was 3.0, even in crap year Headley's was 3.6 (#6 for 3B behind Adrian Beltre). From 2011-13 his WAR is 13.1 (#5 behind Wright). In same period Murphy's is 7.1 (14th for 2B behind Scutaro and Hill). WAR is an imperfect metric but it demonstrates that losing Murphy won't cost that many wins, and even a subpar Headley gives you a bit of an uptick. The Mets won 74 games with Murphy, but a healthy Chase Headley could get them to 77-80 range.
The question mark is Flores, and what he could do in his 22 year. Despite his defensive deficiencies, I believe the Mets need to find out. My guess would be a BA in the .250 range, 12-15 HR, a .750 OPS with a WAR in the 2.5-3.0 range, which isn't that far off from what Murphy produced. My point is that trading Murphy and rolling with Flores (if no 2B is acquired as FA or in a trade) really won't make that much of a difference in how many games the Mets win or lose in 2014.
DW - I agree. I would not give up any frontline pitching prospects for Headley. That would be nuts - Headley is not even close to worth it.
ReplyDeletetough call on this trade.
Dave - your idea is a fine example of thinking outside the box. Problem is I wouldn't want to give up a few prime pieces like Murphy-Gee. Headley doesn't solve our power problem. In actual fact, outside his 31 HR in a career year 2012, his highest total was 13 in the current down year. Moreover, he hasn't played LF since 2009. So, unfortunately, I'm passing on Headley.
ReplyDeleteIf Sandy cannot wotk a trade for a legitimate power bat for LF (Kemp, Braun, CarGo - pipe dreams though they be) I'd be quite satisfied with signing Cruz and either Beltran or Byrd for the OF.
Gee and Murphy for Headley? That's a lot to give up. Headley is a one year rental makin $8.5 M this year. So next year? Around $10M?
ReplyDeleteMurphy for Headley straight up!
I don't think the Mets should trade Murphy, period.
ReplyDeleteI'm not a believer that Cruz or Beltran will be playing here next year. Cruz seems highly likely to take his qualifying offer that Texas will offer. Beltran might too in hopes of chasing another ring if he can win it all this year.
ReplyDeleteThat leaves Byrd. What if he comes back down to earth like Ike & Tejada did this year. Now we have an outfield of young, Lagares & den Dekker. Not acceptable. I like this Headley trade a lot. I'm also a big fan of Dexter Fowler. Adding both these guys would be a huge upgrade for this offense.
This actually seems like a pretty fair deal. if anything to me SD is getting more value, which considering how much we as fans overvalue our own players means its probably closer to equal then i think. If for nothing else this trades two assets that have a 50 value for 1 asset that probably has an 80 value. an 80 is easier to trade then 2 50s
ReplyDeleteI want to clear up a bit of confusion about this proposed trade idea. I did specifically write "center a trade around Murphy and Gee" so I wouldn't see it as just those two for Headley or just him coming to the Mets. A trade in this scenario would most likely include other players/prospects from both teams.
ReplyDeleteWhy?
ReplyDelete