First of all, sorry for being ‘out of pocket’ the past few days. It was unavoidable.Also, my apologies for the site being down most of Tuesday. I think we got that worked out and hopefully, it won’t happen again.
Greg B asked me –
Mack, I’ve been reading an article about Ahmed Rosario. The scouts love him, he has speed, power and plays solid defense. Do you think the Mets make him skip Brooklyn and start him at Savannah?
Mack – Greg, I know how all of us are pretty inpatient about the Mets, but rushing talented kids is not the answer. I have a ton of respect for Baseball America and if they say Rosario is a prospect, I believe them, but he’s a long way away from proving he can play baseball at the major league level.
There is talk of sending him to Savannah on opening day 2014, but I hope they slow it down a little here and let him play Brooklyn first. Let’s remember that his Kingsport stat line last season didn’t jump off the page.
Buddy3 asked me –
Mack, I see that the Mets finally cut Zach Dotson I assume his off field activities contributed to his career never taking off. Any thoughts?
Mack – Dotson was cut along with C Alex Machillanda and 2B Richie Rodriguez. His problems were not talent related but began when he lost the confidence to pitch. Call it anxiety, call it whatever, but it prevented him from getting the job done. He then looked to other ‘solutions’ to his problems and, well, his career was frankly over a long time before the Mets released him. I give the Mets a lot of credit here. They held on to this kid far past most teams would.
Martin L. Monaco Jr. asked -
Dotson, Machillanda and Rodriquez. Can Christian Montgomery be far behind?
Mack – The Montgomery story mirrors Dotson. I remember the early mocks after the 2010 draft like they were yesterday. They all had Montgomery as a solid first round pick in 2011. Then the arm went south and we didn’t anything about him until the Mets picked him in the 11th round. I thought it was a great long shot similar to the drafting of Matt Purke by Boston. Why not, right? Well, Montgomery dopes it 2x and now what do we have?
I don’t expect him to be around much longer.
Michael Scannell asked me -
In 2012, we had Harvey all the rage in ST and then a mid-season promotion.
This year in 2013, Wheeler played the part of the Next Big Thing.
In 2014, Noah Syndergaard promises to be that guy.
Is Steven Matz good enough and advanced enough to fill those shoes in 2015? If he follows the trajectory of those before him, he'll start off 2014 in St. Lucie and get to AA by mid-season. A strong finish there would have him in line to begin 2015 at AAA with a call to the bigs after SuperTwo in mid-summer.
That could potentially give the Mets one very good pitcher added to their rotation from the farm for four consecutive years.
Mack – The short answer to your question is yes, though we know the concern is for the durability of his arm.
Put it this was… Gabriel Ynoa went 15-4, 2.72 for Savannah last year and never was concerned the ace of that staff by one Mets official or scout. It was always Matz, who ‘sits’ 98-99.
You’ve touched on the true ‘dream rotation’… Harvey, Wheeler, Syndergard, Matz,while the speedballs like Mejia, Familia, and Montero go to the pen.
If…Harvey comes back in 2014 and Matz get stronger, This will be the best young pitching staff in the National League in in 2016.
Harry Nilson asks –
Mack, why do team draft kids out of these unknown colleges spread out throughout the nation?
Mack – First of all, they tend to be picked in the 15th to 35th range. You’re just looking for long shot here so you have no harm in taking a chance.
Here’s how some of these works (this is hypothetical)…
A scout is checking out a pitcher at a D-1 school like the University of Georgia. He’s sitting with the coach and telling him that he’s heading down to Jacksonville to check out an infielder and the Georgia coach tells him of a school off of I-16 called ‘Middle Georgia College’. The agent didn’t even know they had a baseball team but finds out they have a junior there that throws a 90-92 fastball with a high 80s sinker slider with big sink. Of course, they could be playing at a Division level that has limited talent, but, what the hell, you call ahead, find out when the kid is pitching and a schedule a trip through their town the next time through. Yes he turns out to throw 90+ but does he really have the talent, and the stones to pull of playing that a professional level (remember… it takes both)?
It’s not going to cost you much and, once in a while to find yourself a gem (i.e. Hamilton Bennett – Tennessee Wesleyan College).
The San Francisco Giants and Tim Lincecum agreed to a 2-yr., $35 million deal.
Mack – I really was hoping this guy would wait around and test the open market; however, I don’t think the Mets are going to spend $17.5mil a year for two years on any pitcher. They don’t have to. There is a good enough rotation in 2014 to get by and the pipeline is filled with a healing Harvey, Montero, Syndergaard, Matz, and bunches of others. Use the money on position players and, if you desire to, feel free to sign a Harang-Dice K type guy for a max of $10mil for one year. That’s all you need a pitcher for.
I had answered the Amed Rosario question in a comment thread. At 18 yrs old next yr, and with sub-par Kingsport stats, I think the Mets will start Rosario in Kingsport again next year with a promotion to Brooklyn late in the season. This will set him up for Savannah at age 19 in 2015.
ReplyDeleteSame path as Brandon Nimmo.
In Regards to Steven Matz, The brass was very impressed by his 1st full healthy season.
ReplyDeleteRegardless he is in-line to start at St. Lucie, HOWEVER, if he comes out the chute running and is extremely effective through May look for him to get a mid-season promotion to Bingo. Which would line him up for AAA in 2015, maybe MLB at the All-Star break that season.
I would have loved to see if the Mets could try to get a deal to bring Lincecum to the team but I kind of knew his loyalty to the Giants. He has so much history there and a World Series ring too. I agree with you Mack that our pitching SHOULD be ok but I think while most people say the Mets should add two new starting pitchers, I think we should be fine just adding one for insurance.
ReplyDeleteYesterday it was reported that the mets were worth 2 billion dollars, and SNY was worth over a billion of that money. Every year they say the mets are losing money and yet they still only have a 90 million dollar budget for players. But when the mets were on MSG way back when they were turning a profit.
ReplyDeleteIf we were making as much as the other big market teams from their tv $$$ we would be gettin at least 60 mil per season (which I don't think SNY does)? And add the 20 mil from naming rights from Citi and that's 80 mill not including all the other $$$ they are making from other revenue sources (tickets, concession stands, merchandising, the national tv contract etc....). I think SNY has to be making a huge profit, and not compensating the baseball team accordingly. I just find that the numbers don't add up, and feel we are all being lied to??? I know they have a loan to pay back as well, but I think SNY is more profitable then they let on...
The Mets could easily afford a team payroll in the $125mil+ range... easily
ReplyDeleteIt just doesn't make sense to jump from where we are now to 125M in one offseason. I believe when it starts becoming time to extend our young core, the payroll will rise accordingly. If they hover around 100M then extend Harvey & Wheeler at some point, they be back in the payroll range that they should be
ReplyDeleteI agree Mack, but kevin they just dropped so drastically and started complaining about losing $$ right from the get go of opening the new stadium.
ReplyDeleteI don't think there's any reason to arbitrarily decide whether or not the Mets should jump payroll in one offseason. If the players aren't available we should not spend the money just to spend it. However, if they are available, no need to hold back either.
ReplyDeleteHow about David Price somehow makes it to FA and the Mets sign him:
ReplyDeleteSP1- Harvey
SP2- Price
SP3- Syndergaard
SP4- Wheeler
SP5- Matz
That's my kind of dream rotation.
I agree that the FA talent isn't there, but that doesn't mean we couldn't use the Boston model and sign 4-5 guys to 2-yr deals
ReplyDeleteLet's do it...1-2 trades and some FA signings...they couls still have a payroll under $100M.
ReplyDeleteI think I really hate the Wilpons.
Agree with you Mack, sign free agents in the 2to3yr range.And make 1 or 2minor deals.By then Peullo,Nimo etc will be ready to produce in the majors.And most importantly don't trade away our top prospects.Follow the blue print of the Cards.
ReplyDeleteall good stuff and fun to talk about and maybe its just me but when Harvey went down I think the timetable got bumped to 2014. The free agent mkt has enough 2nd tier players to really help us out but there are 2 major problems with that scenario: Sandy's not going to get into any bidding war's for any free agent and if you were a free agent would you sign with us? I really hope I'm wrong and we are getting to the point were the FO "SHOULD" show up and finally turn this thing around but our history here isn't great.
ReplyDelete"Matz, who 'sits 98-99"
ReplyDeleteWas this a typo or am I reading it wrong?
I listened to a lot of Matz games via radio through the internet. If you read any of my posts on Matz you know I have him rated as high or higher than just about anyone. I never heard of him hitting 99. From the radio announces giving the stadium clock reading he seemed to be sitting 92-94 during much of the season. Hitting 96 a few times each game.
During the playoff it seem as though he turned it up a notch. He was sitting 95-96, hitting 97. I may have heard a 98 but never a 99.
I was not there and the announcers weren't giving the speed of every pitch. I would take the word of someone who was there over my own but sitting at 98-99 doesn't seem right.
I just don't see how the Mets can afford NOT to spend this off season. It's just suicide to sit through another off season and let every other team try to get better, while you do nothing.
ReplyDeleteThey preached patience while waiting for this year and the time has come.
After doing nothing last off season in free agency, Fred told the press that they had no more money issues. He was trashed by the media and fans for it. It was a big blunder.
Their attendance continues to go down at enormous rates do to this perceived lack of caring and horrible teams. They took a private helicopter to a Heat game during spring training, it was on the front page afterwards, and they again looked foolish. The perception is that they are rich and simply don't care that the team loses.
They have such a great fan base that all this hope they were selling has been all bought up. They're completely out if any more hope to sell us. They know it, Jeff specifically said the same thing.
There just isn't any way they can again go through another off season and do nothing. The market is what the market is in these times where baseball teams are rolling in cash. The players are getting a bigger piece of that pie. They need to adapt and get with the times. A NY payroll of under 125 million is insane and they can't honestly expect to get by with under 100.
All I can say is wait and see. They may want a payroll that low, but they also know they need to field a team of 25 legit ML players. Not AAAA players. Soon they'll find out they are going to have to exceed their budget and get with the rest of MLB.
Yeah, I'm a little off here.
ReplyDeleteDon't go by the clock at Savannah. It hardly ever works and when it does it is under speed.
I sit behind home plate one row behind the two Sand Gnat players assigned to running the team gun and doing the stat book.
Matz consistently is in the 94-97 range and has recorded 99, but I shouldn't have said he sits there.
Conservatively, he 'sits' 93-95.
My bad.
Talking about a $125 million payroll for 2014 is both futile and totally unnecessary. Follow the model of the Cardinals. In 2006, the year they edged us out, their payroll was $89 million to our $101 million. We amped our payroll up the just under $150 million while they hovered under $100 million and who did better? When it was appropriate, they gradually moved their payroll over $100 million to the $116.8 million where it stood at the start of 2013.
ReplyDeleteIf we use our budget wisely, like the Red Sox and Cardinals did last year, we will be able to acquire the key pieces we need to strengthen the team while keeping payroll under $100 million. Our payroll will almost certainly increase naturally over the next few years as our younger players are extended and more arbitration increases take hold.