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10/15/13

Mack Ade – Morning Report – 10-15-13 – Mets Pen, Kemp and Braun, Tim Hudson, TopProspectAlert, St. Louis

 

avatar - writerWinter ball updates...  OF Cory Vaughn (1-4, .118) and 3B Aderlin Rodriquez (0-3, .000) continue to struggle. Cory Satterwhite (0.00) and Jeurys Familia (0.00) both threw scoreless innings... Xorge Carillo went 1-2 (.357)

 

John Delcos has a different spin on the 2014 Mets bullpen

                Rice and Hawkins were two feel-good stories. After spending 14 years in the minor leagues, Rice finally got his chance to play in the major leagues and appeared in 73 games. Meanwhile, the 40-year-old Hawkins still touched the radar gun at 95 mph., and when Parnell was injured, he took over the closer role and saved 13 games with a 2.93 ERA. Germen emerged as a power arm and Torres was valuable as a combination long-man, spot-starter and situational reliever. Torres’ versatility is something the Mets’ bullpen hadn’t had since Darren Oliver in 2006. http://www.newyorkmetsreport.com/2013/10/13/rebuilding-mets-bullpen-not-monster-task-as-it-has-been/

                Mack – Okay, let’s assume Parnell is ready… in Delcos’ pen, five slots are filled already. I would think Vic Black gets the 6th, but then what?

 

Michael Scannell  -

Since it looks like Kemp and Braun may both be available and at discount prices (second-tier prospects and their current teams picking up some salary) why not be bold and go after both?  Sure it's risky, but if the Mets can insure both contracts, the payoff could be huge.  I've seen the suggestion that the Dodgers pick up 1/3 of Kemp's salary and I would try and negotiate with the Brewers to get Braun's average salary down to no more than $13-14M per year btw 2016-2021 (kick in of $22-28M total).  Sure, there are concerns but the Mets will have to take risks with imperfect players if they hope to improve the offense.

Mack – Well, there has to be some assumptions here about the health of Kemp. I’m sure he will be fine and ready for opening day, but

                Current projected Mets 2014 salaries -  $38mil range

                Kemp at 67% -                   $ 14.2375mil

                Braun in 2014 -                  $ 11mil (there is no incentive for Braun to renegotiate his deal that current kicks in to $20mil per year for the 2016 season and lasts through 2020.

                Stop  here - $ 63+mil

                You still have plenty of money to go find yourself a shortstop, a viable option at first, or another starter.

                These two are solid all-stars that would change the Mets lineup for years. I’m sure we’d have to throw in our share of players, but even if you stopped here:

                Young RF, Murphy 2B, Wright 3B, Braun LF, Kemp CF, Davis 1B, d’Arnaud C, Tejada SS

                Wheeler, Niese, Gee, Mejia, Torrez…  Montero and Syndergaard (June)…

                Yeah, I like it. 

 

David O'Brien‏@ajcbraves   - Braves Wren indicated interest in re-signing Tim Hudson

                Mack – Interesting. The Braves have a ton of young pitchers in their current rotation and, on the surface, one would think that his days were over in Atlanta (they also have a couple of more prospects that can’t find a spot on this team). However… every team knows the return of a veteran SP1 to help lead their young starters. Resigning Hudson takes one of the premium FAas off the market and leaves the list thinner for the Mets.

 

TopProspectAlert.com’s top Mets prospects –

  1. 1.       Noah Syndergaard RHP…  2. Dominic Smith 1B…  3. Travis d’Arnaud C…  4. Rafael Montero RHP…  5. Brandon Nimmo OF…  6. Wilmer Flores 2B…  7. Kevin Plawecki C…  8. Amed Rosario SS…  9. Dilson Herrera 2B…  10. Gavin Cecchini SS…  11. Gabriel Ynoa RHP…  12. Steven Matz LHP…  13. Jacob DeGrom RHP…  14. Cesar Puello OF…  15. Jake Leathersich LHP…  16. Luis Mateo RHP…  17. Chris Flexen RHP…  18. Michael Fulmer RHP…  19. Domingo Tapia RHP…  20. John Gant RHP  http://topprospectalert.com/2013/10/14/2014-mlb-organizational-top-20-prospect-rankings/


 

Current Winter ball players –

                Pitchers - Octavio Acosta, Algodoneros de Guasave, Mexico

Chasen Bradford, Scottsdale Scorpions, Arizona

Marco Camarena, Tomateros de Culiacan, Mexico

Miller Diaz, Leones del Caracas, Venezuela

Jeurys Familia, Scottsdale Scorpions, Arizona

Justin Hampson, Tigres de Aragua, Venezuela

Luis Rengel, Cardenales de Lara, Venezuela

Hansel Robles, Scottsdale Scorpions, Arizona

Cody Satterwhite, Scottsdale Scorpions, Arizona

Position players - Xorge Carrillo, Aguilas de Mexicali, Mexico

Juan Carlos Gamboa, Caneros de los Mochis, Mexico

Albert Cordero, Leones del Caracas, Venezuela

Cam Maron, Scottsdale Scorpions, Arizona

Aderlin Rodriguez, Scottsdale Scorpions, Arizona

Wilfredo Tovar, Navegantes de Magallanes, Venezuela

Cory Vaughn, Scottsdale Scorpions, Arizona - http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york/mets/post/_/id/78867/current-mets-winter-ball-participants

 

Howard Megdal -

And if you're wondering how the Cardinals got enough hitting to go along with that pitching: Carlos Beltran, the hero of Game 1, signed via free agency. So did Matt Holliday. They developed Yadier Molina, but then they kept him with a massive long-term deal. Even their pitching isn't purely made up of young, low-cost talent. They traded for Wainwright as a minor leaguer, then signed him long-term.

The Cardinals have a lot more young pitching than the Mets do. They've also spent a lot more money than the Mets have. And even if the Mets manage to bridge that enormous talent and budget gap, they'll still run up against the Cardinals, right in their own league, not going anywhere. http://www.capitalnewyork.com/article/sports/2013/10/8534629/alderson-can-dream-cardinals-are-another-league

                Mack – Howard did a good job in this story pointing out just how far away the Mets are from the level that teams like St. Louis play at. And they will continue to stay that way trying to operate with a mid-market budget for a large-market team.

The Wilpons seem to have forgotten that you have to spend money to make money and there is no way in hell that a baseball team in the largest media market in the world shouldn’t be spending at least $125mil on their team. Additionally, no city has more immigrants from baseball crazy countries, yet the Mets seem to go out of their way not to bid on players from most of these countries. Does it take rocket science to figure out how many dollars would be spent by Cuban, Japanese, and Korean-Americans rooting for their home-boys at CitiField?  Doesn't one Mike Piazza sold out night show you fans will come out for the right product?

We’ve spend countless hours here on The Mack’s Mets Report trying to predict how the Mets will spend around $80mil next season. It simply isn’t the way to approach this game from a city this large. It just isn’t.

10 comments:

  1. Mack,
    You and Howard really nailed it. Great reality check!

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  2. I really think Hudson would be a great addition for the next two years. If the youngsters develop he'd make great trade bait too.

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  3. I wouldn't touch Matt Kemp and that contract with a 10 foot pole. He'll be on the DL more then on the field. A more reasonable idea would be to trade for Ryan Braun and sign Choo. A outfield of LF Braun,CF Lagares and RF Choo would be very attractive.

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  4. Saying we can 'trade for Braun' is one thing, but coming up with the players is another.

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  5. We should have the ammunition to trade for any player in the game besides Trout & Harper. We have 3 top 50 prospects in Syndergaard, d'Arnaud & Montero, a bunch of Top 100 quality prospects in Flores, Puello & Plawecki and some very interesting arms ranging from deGrom to Matz. We have the players to get anyone we want. It's just a matter of coming up with a deal that your comfortable making. The Angels had a pretty good farm team then traded everybody away to try and win now and they are back at the bottom again.

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  6. I just don't like trading prospects when this is a NY team that won't reach a 100 million dollar payroll.

    In order to compete with that payroll, you need a lot of league minimum or pre arbitration eligible players that produce way beyond what they're getting paid.

    So, how can you trade them and expect any sustained success?

    The mets need to quit this lowball payroll crap and act like a competent team operating in a big market city. They'll have to allow Alderson the flexibility to raise the payroll between 110-120 million. Starting off at 55 and ending up doubling your payroll, if invested correctly, should make this team a winner. Especially with their current pitching staff and the arms on the way...

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  7. That's why getting the contract insured would be part of acquiring him.

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  8. Mack,

    Earlier I thought you felt a couple of mid-tier prospects might get it done for Braun.

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  9. Brewers are weak at 1B. Offer them Murphy/Davis/Duda/Flores (pick one) Montero, den Dekker, Cessa. Do you think that does it?

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