Reese Kaplan - What Roster Crunch?

There’s been a lot of bytes of data wasted on the so-called 40-man roster crunch the NY Mets are facing with their “talent” given that they finished the season with 8 people on the 60-day DL. In a slow Mets news environment the blogosphere has been rife with articles on this “crisis” du jour. Let’s take a more rational look at what the so-called braintrust must decide.

First let’s group in the given major leaguers who, barring trades, will be there. This list would include David Wright, Travis d’Arnaud, Juan Lagares, Wilmer Flores, Daniel Murphy, Eric Young, Matt den Dekker, Josh Satin, Justin Turner (Terry Collins’ long lost red headed son), Dillon Gee, Zack Wheeler, Jonathon Niese, Vic Black, Jeurys Familia and Carlos Torres. That is a starting group of 19 sure things.

Next come the probables – people who are likely retained on the 40-man roster despite lackluster production. Names here would include Ike Davis, Lucas Duda, Gonzalez Germen and Juan Centeño. That’s another 4.

Now we have the players on the bubble likely to be dropped to make room for younger players who need to be protected – Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Anthony Recker, Andrew Brown, Robert Carson, Greg Burke, Scott Atchison, Zach Lutz, Omar Quintanilla, Mike Baxter, Sean Henn, Hansel Robles and Jordany Valdespin. There’s a dozen slots of flexibility right there.

Then there are the free agents to be – Johan Santana, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Aaron Harang, LaTroy Hawkins, David Aardsma, Tim Byrdak, Pedro Feliciano and Frank Francisco. LaTroy Hawkins is almost certainly going to be offered a chance to return. Maybe the late September starting duo of Dice-K and Harang will get minor league offers or heavily incentive-laden major league contracts. The team is probably ready to sever ties with Perpetual Pedro, Byrdak and Frank-Frank. Aardsma is on the bubble but he was pretty awful towards the end. Assume they do keep these four free agents on the major league roster. That’s 4 more.

Now let’s look at the minor leaguers who may need protection – Cesar Puello, Dustin Lawley, Rafael Montero, Jacob de Grom, Darin Gorski, Noah Syndergaard, Wilfredo Tovar, Jeff Walters, Cory Vaughn, Greg Peavy and Steve Matz. That’s 11 more who may need protection.

Then we have the still-injured group that includes Jenrry Mejia, Bobby Parnell, Matt Harvey, Josh Edgin, Jeremy Hefner and Ruben Tejada. According to the baseball roster rules, none have to be added back onto the 40-man roster until they have served their minimum of 60 days but there is no maximum.

So let’s summarize – 19 sure things, 4 possible FA re-signings, 4 probables and 11 youngsters. That’s 38 spots occupied on the roster plus the 6 additional injured players who don’t need to be on the roster. Those extra spots could come from the group on the bubble or through acquisition. There will also likely be trades. Crisis? A crisis of talent perhaps, but not of numbers.

*FYI, I will be out of the country until my next column in November. Enjoy the World Series, Happy Halloween and onto the official start of the Hot Stove Season!