Mack’s Morning Report – 12-2 – Bronson Arroyo, 2014 Budget, Chris Young, Daniel Murphy, San Diego

 

Randall asked –

Mack, I hear that the Mets have some interest in Bronson Arroyo… your thoughts?

Mack – Thanks for the email, Randall. Ed Ryan of Mets Fever and I were discussing just this Friday night when the rumor started. As I told him, I never have a problem with a good player… I just hate bad budgets.

The real good news about Arroyo is he doesn’t seem to get hurt and he gives you 200 innings every year with an ERA under four. He also would give you a stable SP4 which would allow you to package Rafael Montero for an outfield or shortstop bat.

The bad news is it will probably cost you a three year contract and most of your budget is going to be sucked up in this deal.

Fred Wilpon and Sandy Alderson have to realize that the rules of engagement have changed and you’re not going to compete with a budget under $100mil.

You could sign Arroyo to strengthen your pitcher based approach to this game, and you’re two established players (Chris Young) into the Hot Stove season. Sign or trade for one more and (hopefully a SS or another OFer) you walk away a winner. At least in my book you would.

Yeah, I like the Arroyo idea. 

Paul asked –

Mack, do you really think the Mets are going to stand by the budget figures being projected by the front office?

                       Mack – Hey Paul.

First of all, I don’t remember anyone in the front office quoting what the 2014 budget was in stone. So far, all I’ve read is the budget is going to be ‘around’ some number. ‘Around’ could have quite the plus or minus end results.

There’s also another trick that could be used in a trade for someone that is already under contract. The Mets could easily wind up with someone like, oh, let’s say OF Matt Kemp. He’s under contract for $21.25mil in 2014, but the Mets could cut a deal where the Dodgers have to pay half the amount on the existing contract. The end result is the Mets get a quality bat for only an additional $10.625mil in 2014.

Additionally, let’s not forget the arbitration process. Additional monies can be saved if you don’t renew guys like Scott Atchison and Omar Quintanilla. You also can DFA Lucas Duda and/or Justin Turner, who’s projected ARB1 numbers are already penciled into the budget.

The Mets still have plenty to spend. 

Marty asked –

Mack, you were pretty harsh when Chris Young was signed, but you seem to be mellowing a little about this. Am I right?

            Mack – Hey, Marty.

I don’t think I ever criticized the player. It’s always been the amount of money that is being paid to him. The Mets are a classic stingy team and Young is getting an awful lot of money after producing two bad years of baseball. Yes, he once was an all-star, but so have many people that are now over 30 years old. There’s no guarantee that he will return to his old numbers, especially when he’s going to play in a home field that doesn’t fit his game.

That being said, I’ll fall back and give him his 500-600 at-bats. You don’t pay someone this kind of money and platoon him. My guess is he will hit 20+ home runs and produce 70+ RBIs. He also will give the Mets excellent defense.

What’s left is what does the ‘+’ represent in both these stats and what will his BA/OBP/OPS be when all is said and done. I don’t expect a batting average over .250 here, but he still could produce an 800+ OPS which would make this one-year investment a good one.                                                                                      

David Groveman  -  re: Mets Christmas Card

Does it not strike anyone else that a couple voices are notably missing?  I didn’t expect Ike Davis (who is halfway out the door) but where was, fan favorite, Daniel Murphy?  Where was Bobby Parnell?  The Mets are hardly gun-shy about trading someone who is simultaneously being used for publicity but it strikes me that this video was pretty well planned.  The video gives a glimpse into what, I think, is the Mets’ internal core.  Those players that management sees as part of the Met future are showcased, those that may soon find their way out of Flushing… less so. http://mets360.com/?p=19845

Mack – David used to write a daily post here until I pissed him off and chased him away. Big mistake on my behalf. He’s a greay guy and a better writer.

The lack of Murphy being on the video is balanced off with the lack of Wilmer Flores also. I don’t expect both these guys to be around on opening day, with Murphy being the favorite to depart because of hls MLB past success.

I don’t read anything into the lack of Parnell being on the video. He’s rehabbing with a neck injury so I don’t see anyone forcing him to travel right now.           

Bill Center –

Expect the Padres to address their need for a left-handed bat and/or a left-handed reliever by the Dec. 12 end of baseball’s annual Winter Meetings.

Mack – Is this a future home for Ike Davis, Daniel Murphy, or Lucas Duda?

OFs Carlos Quentin (3-yr, $27mil thru 2015), Cameron Maybin (5-yr., $25mil thru 2016 ), and Will Venable (2-yr, $8.5mil thru 2015) are all under lock and key.

You still have Chris Denorfia ($2.25 in 2014) and prospects Rymer Liriano (ETA: 2014) Reymond Fuentes (MLB – 33-AB).

I would think some kind of mutual agreeable deal could be worked out here.