Herb G: Alex Rodriguez - What might have been.

“Of all sad words of tongue or pen, the saddest are these, 'It might have been."   
                                                             . . . John Greenleaf Whittier

Last week Dan Kolton posted an article on the METS360 blog entitled “Mets dodged a bomb by not signing Alex Rodriguez” in which he recalled the dance between Alex Rodriguez and the Mets in the Fall of 2000. In it, he states “In 2009, reports came out that Rodriguez had used PED’s during his time on the Rangers, the team that outbid the Mets for Rodriguez” and “Since that day in 2009, Rodriguez was caught using PED’s once again. He denied the accusations, got suspended for 211 games, went to court to appeal that suspension, was suspended again from the MLB for the entire 2014 season as well as playoffs, and watched as Tony Bosch went on 60 Minutes and admit to injecting PED’s into his body.” That leads Kolton to state “one thing is certain… the Mets definitely dodged a bullet by letting the Rangers outbid them for the 25-year-old superstar talent from Washington Heights, New York who grew up not a Mariners fan, not a Rangers fan, not even a Yankees fan… but a New York Mets fan with Keith Hernandez as his idol.”

Sadly, as much as I dislike A-Rod as a person, I have to disagree with Kolton and say that the Mets may have missed a huge opportunity by letting Rodriguez slip away. At the end of the 2000 season, Alex Rodriguez became a free agent and the New York Mets were coming off a 5 game loss to the New York Yankees in the World Series. Rodriguez had made it known publicly that he wanted to play for the Mets. He was there for the asking. My recollection was that the excuse was he wanted too much special treatment, and they thought it would be demoralizing for the other 24 players. I don't doubt that the brash and egotistical Rodriguez might have been obnoxious in negotiations, irritating the equally brash and egotistical Steve Phillips, and turning off the owners at that time, Nelson Doubleday Jr. and Fred Wilpon. That said, the front office should have been professional enough to look past the obnoxious behavior of Alex Rodriguez, the jerk, and assess the potential performance of Alex Rodriguez, the ballplayer.

Perhaps A-Rod alone would have not been the difference maker in getting the Mets back to the World Series in 2001, because, like the last few years, the Mets had no outfield at that time. But then again, he might. All this is conjectural, because who is to say whether Rodriguez would have performed at the same level on the Mets, playing in Shea Stadium, as he did playing for Texas in the Arlington band box. For the sake of argument, however, I will make that assumption. He may not have hit as many home runs, (52 in 2001, 57 in 2002, 424 over the 10 year term of hs contract) but many of those would probably have been extra base hits as well. Consider a 2001 infield with 1B- Zeile, 2B- Fonzie, SS- A-Rod, 3B- Ventura, and C- Piazza. In that year the Mets, with Rey Ordonez at shortstop, finished 6 games behind the Braves, in 3^rd place in the NL East and out of the playoffs. Ordonez hit a meager .247 with an OPS of .635, while Rodriguez was hitting .318 with an OPS of 1.021. In terms of player value, Ordonez had a WAR of -0.1 while A-Rod had a WAR of 8.4, a difference of 8½ games. If Sabremetrics had it right, the Mets would have won the NL East that year by 2 games, and possibly gone on to face the Yankees once again in October.

After 2001, the Mets fell off a cliff and even Clark Kent would not have gotten them to the playoffs in the ensuing three years. By 2005, however, the Mets were a different team. Jose Reyes, who the Mets had signed as an international free agent in 1999, a year before signing Rodriguez, would most likely have made his major league debut at second base, despite coming up through the minors as a shortstop. The Kaz Matsui debacle would have been avoided. And with Beltran, Cliff Floyd and Mike Cameron in the outfield, Wright, A-Rod, Reyes and Doug Mientkiewicz in the infield, Piazza still producing behind the plate, and a pitching staff headed by Pedro and Glavine, Rodriguez could certainly have been the difference maker in getting the Mets to the World Series that year. Again, I go to the Sabremetrics. Rodriguez had a WAR of 9.4 that year, while Miguel Cairo and Kaz Matsui (the players he would have replaced) had a combined WAR of -0.8, a net difference of over 10 games. That would have been more than enough to put the Mets, who had finished tied for third place 7 games behind the Braves, into first place by 3 games.

After a successful 2005, one has to wonder if the Mets would have felt the need to trade with the Marlins for Carlos Delgado, but I will tamper with history only so much. All I will say is that it might not have been Carlos Beltran facing Adam Wainwright in the ninth inning of game 7 of the NLCS. Hell, there might not have even been a game 7. And there most likely would not have been September meltdowns in 2007 or 2008. So, it seems to me that over the course of the 10 year contract that the Mets seemed prepared to offer A-Rod, he might have led them to 5 World Series appearances. And then, by 2010, when his 10 year contract ran out, (assuming, of course, that the Mets were not foolish enough to include an opt-out clause in his contract, as the Rangers had done) the Mets would not have had the money to resign him, thereby dodging the bullet.

At the end of his article, Dan Kolton closed with the question - “Would it have been worth it to sign Alex Rodriguez?” I can understand those who might say that they are glad that the Mets were never associated with a sleaze ball, cheater like Rodriguez. But now, at the end of this article, I will pose the same question to you.

Would it have been worth it to sign Alex Rodriguez?