Mack’s Morning Report – 1-21-14 - 2006 Draft, Wilmer Flores, Salaries, Nick Franklin

Coming up today - 

10am - Herb G - Alex Rodriguez - What Might Have Been

12pm - Reese Kaplan - Shuffling the Cards:  A Pre-Spring Training Look at the 25-Man Roster

2pm - Mack Ade - Some Additional Discussions on the Wilpons and Sandy Alderson
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Congrats go out to Mr. and Mrs. John Church who tied the knots on Saturday. On hand to join John and Kayla were Darin Gorski,  Jake deGrom,  Jeff Walters, Jack Leathersich, Brandon Sage, and Robbie Shields.

-We continue to look at the draft years of 2000-2007 for the NL East teams. Specifically, we break out the players chosen in the top three rounds and an overall assessment of success (sic) in choosing players in the draft.

2006 –

Mets  -          

            #2       P          Kevin Mulvey         27-IP, 0-3, 7.90

            #3       P          Joe Smith                 379-IP, 27-16, 2.97

            Five of the 49 players drafted made it to the MLB level

            Only two (Smith, Daniel Murphy) had any success at that level

Florida –

            #1       P          Brett Sinkbell         2-IP, 13.50

            #1       3B       Chris Coghlan         1,419-AB, .270, 117-RBI

            #2       CF       Thomas Hickman  career ended at the A+ level

            #3       C          Torey Langley         career ended at the AA level

            10 of the 51 players drafted made it to the MLB level

            Two (Coghlan, Dave Williams) had any success at that level

Nats –

            #1       OF       Chris Marrero        125-AB, .232

            #1       P          Colton Willems      career ended at the A+ level

            #2       P          Sean Black               pitched AA last season

            #2       SS        Stephen Englund   career ended at A level

            #3       SS        Stephen King          career ended at the AA level

            Three out of 52 players made it to the major league level

            One (Brad Peacock) has had success at this level

Atlanta –

            #1       OF       Cody Johnson         career ended at the AAA level

            #1       P          Cory Ramus             22-IP, 5.40

            #1       P          Steven Evarts         career ended at the A level

            #2       P          Jeff Locke                 217-IP, 11-13, 4.06

            #2       P          Dustin Evans           career ended at the AA level

            #2       SS        Chase Fontaine      career ended at the A+ level

            #3       P          Chad Rodgers         career ended at the A+ level

            Four of the 54 players drafted made it to the major league level

            Three (Ramus, Locke, Kris Medlen) have had any success at that level

Philadelphia –

            #1       P          Kyle Drabek             169-IP, 8-15, 5.37

            #1       SS        Adrian Cardenas               60-AB, .183

            #2       P          Drew Carpenter                 33-IP, 1-1, 7.56

            #3       SS        Jason Donald                      552-AB, .257

            Six of the 51 players drafted made it to the major league level

            Four (Drabek, Donald, Quinton Berry, Domonic Brown) had any success at that level

           

 257 ballplayers were drafted in 2006 by the NL East teams

 28 made it to the MLB level -  10.9%

Only 12 had success at that level   -  4.7%

There’s been some difference of opinion on Wilmer Flores:

Anonymous – “Flores will be in rhe mix for 1st base at mid season barring any trade of him”

            Greg B – “Flores – I’m afraid to say is the new Fernando Martinez, sorry.”

Reese – “I could see you calling d'Arnaud the next F-Mart given their injury histories but I don't get the parallel to Flores whose only notable injury was this past season to his ankles. He bounced back to hit what, .400 in the winter league? I think his ankles are healthy”

Now, you all know how I hate to get into projecting what a player is going to do. There’s enough of you that do that well and I like to stay behind the stats that have already been produced.

Regarding Flores, I can tell you a few things:

            -he hit .321/.357/.531/.887 at the AAA level in 2013

            -he did it as one of the youngest players in the history of AAA ball

            -he also did it drug free

-he has no history of injuries other than twisting his ankle last year as a Met

            -he will play 2014 as a 22-year old.

The Mets aren’t saying anything about who is going to play where. That will all begin when the majority of players report to camp. Frankly, only Flores and a couple of coaches may know if he should bring his first baseman mitt to camp.

I thought he would be gone in a trade, but he’s not. I then thought he’s replace Daniel Murphy after Murph was traded, but that didn’t happen either. Now, what compounds this even more is the fact that Ike Davis hasn’t been moved out. We still have to find homes for him, Lucas Duda, Brandon Allen, and Alan Dykstra.

I have no idea who plays where yet, but I can’t classify Flores in the same boat with F-Mart. Martinez was just a… well, he was a flop. Flores is far from that at this point in his career and, injury wise, this is no Reese Havens either.

Salaries –

In the good old days, increases in salaries were driven by multiple leagues. The rise of the American Association in 1882, the Union Association in 1884 and Players League in 1890 caused brief spikes in salaries, and when the AA disbanded and the stronger teams absorbed into the National League in 1892, salaries plummeted. The graph doesn't show it, but a similar run-up in salaries occurred with the formation of the American League in 1901 and the Federal League in 1914, with similar drops after those leagues were either accepted or disbanded.

Free agency changed this in the mid-1970s, along with aggressive owners like George Steinbrenner willing to bid up the price to acquire talent. I'm sure it's been written about, but I wonder if Steinbrenner could have been Steinbrenner without the ability to spend as freely as he did. He became an owner in 1973, just before the free agency era, so we'll never know. http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2014/1/20/5315326/mlb-salary-trends

Mack – This is a great article on salary trends over the history of baseball (I still remember the day everyone in my household went nuts when they announced that Mickey Mantle was given a contract for $100,000)… check it out

Jeff C asked -

Do you think Nick Franklin can play Major League defense at SS? He certainly has the bat and with Cano going to Seattle they have an excess with Franklin and Miller. If he could play SS, what do you think it would cost the Mets to get him? Is Montero a good starting point?

Mack – Franklin has had some defensive limitations, both at shortstop and second base. As for his bat, it still is in the development stage and hitting .225 last year should not be the kind of player the Mets should be looking at.

            BP scouting report in 2013:

No matter where he plays in the field Franklin is a bat-first player. He is limited at shortstop, offering only modest range and an arm that earns below-average to fringe-average grades. He has decent hands and solid instincts but they are not enough to make him a palatable defender on the left side of the infield long term. If he is shifted to second base permanently, a position he has played extensively in the minor leagues, Franklin could be an average defender with an average arm for the position. Offensively, Franklin stands out for his ability to make consistent hard contact and drive the ball to all fields. He has a line-drive swing that will max out with 15-18 home runs a year, but should also generate 30-plus doubles at his peak. Franklin’s swing is simple and compact from the left side, allowing him to work counts and hit for a high average. From the right side, Franklin’s swing has a tendency to get long, adding more miss to his game and resulting in less punch. Franklin projects as an above average to plus hitter with good power and the ability to steal 10-15 bases a year thanks to average speed and decent base running instincts. Franklin will need time to adjust to major-league pitching but once he settles in he should be a solid everyday option for the Mariners.

MLB Prospect Watch –

While that would be unfortunate for most players (Cano signing), it may be a good thing for Franklin.  As a left-handed hitter with moderate power (below average by major league standards but above-average for a second baseman), Safeco Field was a terrible fit for him.  As you can see by his spray chart below, almost all of his power was to the pull side.  Safeco Park is not friendly to left-handed hitters, and there were at least three fly ball outs that Franklin hit that would have been a home run at many other parks.

Franklin could see a solid boost in his power numbers if he can get out of Safeco.  He hit 12 home runs in 102 games, for a 19-homer pace.  Getting out of Safeco and into a more hitter-friendly park coupled with no longer being rookie should put him in the 20-25 home run range.  You can't expect a hundred point jump in batting average, but Franklin also shouldn't be a .225 hitter over the course of his career.  Put all these minor improvements together and you have a nice little second baseman.

As of now, Franklin is still a Mariner, and there's a chance they could hold on to him and turn him into a utility player.  More likely, however, is that in the Mariners continued effort to go for it this season, they flip Franklin to a team for whom he has more value.  Franklin's days as an everyday second baseman are over, but the Cano signing probably increases the odds that he makes it as an everyday player at all.

As for Rafael Montero, I think the addition of, first, Bartolo Colon, and now, John Lannan, makes Montero the lead dog in any trade talks for anyone at any position. It’s obvious that Noah Syndergard and Matt Harvey will be part of the 2015 Mets rotation. You can’t pitch everyone here and someone has to go. It seems to me that Montero would bring you the best return.