Ike Davis and the Platinum value of top Pitching Prospects

The Brewer’s signed Mark Reynolds to a minor league deal on Thursday. This eliminated last suitor for Ike Davis. His trade market never truly developed. The Mets and Sandy Alderson were looking to parlay Ike for a top-level pitching prospect like the Brewers’ Tyler Thornburg, Eduardo Rodriguez (Orioles) and Nick Kingham (Pirates). They were reportedly the type of top-level prospects the Mets wanted in exchange for their slugging 1B. 

Of these three, Thornburg was the only one who could’ve jumped right in the starting rotation.

The lefty Rodriguez finished his season with AA Bowie where he posted 59 K’s in 59 IP, had a SO/9 of 8.9 and solid 1.29 WHIP. The southpaw is still at least a year away but is also the #6 LHP prospect in MLB according to MLB.com. This is what they had to say about the talented Rodriguez:

“He has grown into his big frame and now throws his fastball in the low-90s with good action. Rodriguez's changeup and slider give him two more quality pitches with which to attack hitters.”

The Pirates Kingham, like Rodriguez, finished his 2013 season in AA (Altoona) where he whiffed 69 in 73 IP, while averaging 8.5 SO/9 with a 1.364 WHIP. He is not ranked as a top MLB prospect but is the Bucs #9 prospect according to MLB.com.  

“The big right-hander could have three above-average-or-better pitches and above-average command when all is said and done. Kingham will touch 95 mph with his fastball, with plenty of movement. His changeup has deceptive sink, and it's been his best secondary offering in the past. His curve may have caught up, and the power breaking ball might be just as good down the road.”

Thornburg is penciled in as the Brewers #5 after striking out 48 in 66.2 IP for them in 2013. His 6.5 SO/9 was low but a WHIP of 1.185 demonstrates he has good command of his pitches. In AAA his SO/9 averaged over 10, so that K rate should increase dramatically in 2014.

This gives you an idea of the Mets perceived value of Davis on the open market-more than a bit on the high side if you ask me. But I believe it shows Alderson’s underlying reluctance in trading a potential 30 HR/100 RBI bat. Alderson was looking at the perceived value of an Ike Davis going forward, not wanting to trade his only real slugger for a couple mid-level prospect rolls of the dice and getting burned in the process long-term. He wanted only a top of the line pitching prospect for the former 1^st round draft pick. It also indicates to me that despite their reservations the team expects Ike to bounce back enough in 2014 to make his return worthwhile. 

It also shows how valuable franchises view starting pitching prospects in this era- going from gold to platinum in value. Every team is stocking up their system with power arms and potential front-line starters. By 2016 the Brewers will be building their rotation around Thornburg, the Orioles will add Rodriguez to their dynamic duo of Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman, while the Pirates would add Kingham to fill out a potentially sick rotation featuring Gerrit Cole, James Taillon, and Tyler Glasnow. Too say that starting pitching is at a premium in MLB today is a vast understatement. Almost every team has a pipeline of arms to build its dream rotation from. Of course many of these pitchers will flame out, blow out their elbows or shoulders, never develop effective secondary pitches or just not have what it takes to be a MLB starter. 

It’s a risk most teams are willing to take. It’s also a large reason why Ike Davis is still a Met. 

But what of Davis? 

The Mets just avoided arbitration with the slugging lefty, inking a one year $3.5 million deal. He earned $3.125 in 2013. That’s a small raise and investment for a player who has the potential to deliver an OPS of 900+ and a 3 WAR. Compare that with James Loney, who the Rays signed for 3 years and $21 million. He hasn’t posted an OPS over 900 since 2007 and last year’s 2.7 WAR tied 2011 for his career high. Even the newly signed 30 year-old Reynolds will get a base of $2 million in his Brewers deal and he’s never posted an OPS of 900 and his best WAR of 3.3 was in 2009 with Arizona. 

Davis, even with his lackluster 2012-13, has a higher ceiling than both these 1B. The team is really not risking much with Davis, either financially or in years. Ike is a wildcard for 2014. He could wind up anywhere from Comeback Player of the Year to being DFA’d by June 1^st or traded at the deadline. Even so the Mets were wise to overvalue Davis relative to the market because they didn’t have a lot to lose. That’s why I believe Alderson held out for the best return possible. It’s a tactic which worked in the Dickey, Wheeler and Byrd deals. The fact it didn’t with Davis shouldn’t dissuade him from doing the same in the future. 

As for keeping Davis, well they’re not overpaying him and the team is not tied to him beyond 2014. He could still be the ideal bridge to Dom Smith. If they could get an OPS of 750+, a WAR between 2.5-3 with a slash line of at least .250/20/75 they’re getting solid value for their one-year investment in Ike.