Mack’s Morning Report – 1-19-14 - 2004 Draft, Chris Young, Dillon Gee, Daniel Murphy

Coming up later today at 11am  - D Whit -  Ike Davis and the Platinum value of top Pitching Prospects

I did something screwy on the site and now, I sometimes can’t enter a comment unless someone else does first.  I’ve tried rebooting, but nothing corrects it, so… you may see me answering many of your question as part of one of my Morning Reports rather than in the comments section. I am in touch with Blogger and they are trying to figure out what went wrong.

-We continue to look at the draft years of 2000-2007 for the NL East teams. Specifically, we break out the players chosen in the top three rounds and an overall assessment of success (sic) in choosing players in the draft.

2004 – (1^st pick overall by San Diego – SS Matt Bush – career ended at the AA level)

Mets  -          

            #1       SP       Phillip Humber       371-IP, 16-23, 5.31, no-hitter

            #2       SP       Matt Durkin                        career ended at the A level

            #3       SP       Gaby Hernandez    career ended at the AAA level

            Three of the 50 players drafted made the MLB level

            Three (Humber, Mike Carp, Mike Evans) had some success at that level

Florida -       

            #1       RP       Taylor Tankersley             118-IP, 8-3, 4.58

            #2       SP       Jason Vargas                      980-IP, 51-58, 4.30

            #3       OF       Greg Burns              career ended at the AAA level

            Five of the 50 players drafted made it to the MLB level

            Only Tankersley and Vargas had some success at this level

Montreal -  

            #1       P          Bill Bray                   197-IP, 13-12, 3.74

            #2       C          Eric San Pedro        career ended at the AAA level

            #3       SS        Ian Desmond          2,304-AB, .273, 279-RBI

            Four of the 50 players drafted made it to the MLB level

            Three (Bray, Desmond, Collin Balester) had success at that level

Atlanta -     

            #2       3B       Eric Campbell         career ended at the AA level

            #3       2B       J.C. Holt                    career ended at the AAA level

            Two out of the 49 players drafted made it to the MLB level

            Neither one had success at that level

Philadelphia –

            #1       OF       Greg Golson                        41-AB, .195

            #2       C          Jason Jamamillo    336-AB, .235

            #3       SP       J.A. Happ                  683-IP, 40-42, 4.25

            Five of the 50 players drafted made it to the MLB level

            Only Happ had some success at the level

 249 ballplayers were drafted in 2004 by the NL East teams

19 made it to the MLB level -  7.6%

Only 9 had success at that level   -  3.6

Christopher Soto on my opinion of Chris Young –

I have to disagree Mack... There truly is potential for improvement here. Last time Chris Young was a full time starter all year long, his BB rate floated around 11.5% and his K rate around 22%. With a normalized BABIP that's gonna get C. Young about a .235 AVG. If he can match his career avg HRs of 24 per season and play his normally excellent defense in LF, He's going to be worth close to 3 wins above replacement level. For comparisons E. Young Jr.'s career BB rates are 8.3% and K rate is 16.7 % and he hit .249 last season. A .250 Avg is indeed better than a .235 but C. Young's 25 HRs are significantly better than E. Young's 2-3 per season. Factor in CY's excellent defense vs. EYJ's poor defense and I think Chris Young CAN be an improvement over last year.

Chris – And, that’s why, if you are correct, he will make a great candidate for a mid-season trade.

I appreciate your defense of Young.

As you know, nothing I ever say has any stat-related information behind it. In my case, it’s just what I feel out of this damaged old brain of mine.

I have followed this game since 1954 and I have seen so many great ballplayers hit the wall when it comes to the deterioration of their skills and body parts. It also doesn’t help that the players they keep playing against are younger and more talented than the previous year’s batch.

As I said in my original comments on your post, I hope I am wrong here, but I simply think that Young was a bad sign, for too much money. He and Bartolo Colon (IMO) were signed for one reason… to get the fan base off their ass and (is this now two reasons?) and create a scenario where the Mets can trade for a couple of more high level (AAA/AA) field prospects

I have a theory and, no one in the Mets organization (when I tell it to them), tells me I’m wrong.

It’s obvious that David Wright, Jon Niese, and Curtis Granderson are now signed long term. This represents $45,050 in 2017.

I sit back and say, who are the next three superstars (2017) in this game that the Mets need to sign long term and I obviously turn to my own pitching staff.

Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, and Noah Syndergaard are the future of this team through this decade and, if I was the General Manager, these are the guys I would ink a deal through, at least, the length of Wright’s deal in 2020.

You’re talking a minimum addition of $60-70mil here, but you’re not going to find three better starters in the league for this kind of money. They already are in your organization.

Ernest Dove on Dillon Gee/Daniel Murphy -

Hey Mack, do u think Murphy and Gee will also only get one year deals, or might the Mets go multi-year for either one?

I don’t think either one will get offered a long term contract during the pre-season. I wish both were… Gee, like Niese, would be a great trading chip before the ‘Big Three’ take over in 2015, and I consider Murphy one of the top 2Bmen in the National League. It also would sort of put to rest the Wilmer Flores thing and make him a first baseman or nothing...

Randy Leslein wrote -

Mack: I know it is only a month away from spring training.  Can't believe that a couple of options still could be on the table.

1. What about getting Rutledge from Colorado to play SS  He is odd man out on Colorado's infield.

2. Sign James McDonald or Tommy Hanson to a minor league deal to give     Mejia competition for the 5th spot.

3. Sign Andrew Bailey.  Need bullpen help.

What do you think?  Love to read you articles.  Each morning I get up I have to see Mack's Morning Report.

            Mack – First of all, thank you for your email and compliment.

For the record, all I can do is give you my opinion on current Mets. Herb B, one of our chief writers here on Mack’s Mets, has an active relationship with Sandy Alderson, and I will pass on your thoughts on these players to him.

Trust me about one thing. There will be no new rabbits pulled out of the hat on January 19^th. If Sandy Alderson hasn’t discussed any of these with the General Manager of the team (or the agent for the player), there will be no ticket to Queens for any of them.

Adding players like John Lannan, Jairo Perez, and Omar Quintanilla are about as much as we're going to see right now (more on Perez later today). We're down to the short hairs as players already (Bobby Parnell, Jenrry Mejia) have walked into camp.

My thoughts… Rutledge hit .234 in Colorado. That would translate to below Ike Davis numbers here… I like the McDonad and/or Hanson idea, though I still vote for Montero… Bailey in 2013 with Boston: 30-G, 3-1, 3.77, 1.22. There’s nothing wrong with those numbers


Lastly...

The other Mack's Mets writers and I are putting together an interview with Mets prospect 1B, Dominic Smith, and I wanted to see if any of you had a question you wanted me to ask him. 

Just add the question in the comments portion of this post and we'll throw it in with the others that will produce around 8 questions eventually asked.

Thanks.