Mack’s 2014 Prediction

It’s time.

I began predicting where the Mets would finish before the 2007 season. I was in the infant stages of my first Mack’s Mets blog (closed three or four times after bouts of rage, depression, and just sheer stupidity) and was also writing the minor league page for the old Flushing University site (remember, Hobie?).

I said that the Mets would finish third in 2007 and fellow writers like Coop, Hobie, and Johnny Lowe, thought I was nuts.  I also said they would finish 3^rd in 2008 and 2009, and predicted 4^th in 2010, 2011, and 2012, and 3^rd last year. The important thing wasn’t whether I was right about the position they were ranked. The important thing was that they never made it back to the playoffs.

We’ve now had three years of Sandy Alderson and the 74 wins in both 2013 and 2012 were the least amount since Art Howe was the manager in 2004 (71-91). The team has hemorrhaged money for the past few seasons, the fan base has greatly eroded, and the budget given Alderson to rebuild this team seems far less than needed.  Still, 25 ballplayers get to put on the uniform every day and play against the other teams in the National League and at some point we need to stop talking about money and ownership and return to the national pastime.

The 2014 seem to continue to be two separate and distinct teams. One, the young, talented pitchers that continue to mature, and two, the everyday positional players that just seem to be a support staff for David Wright. 

This year’s version include two new ‘bats’ for the outfield… Curtis Granderson, who hit .229 last year, and Chris Young Jr., who hit .200. Add that to last year’s crew of Lucas Duda (.223), Ike Davis (.205), Omar Quintanilla (.222), Ruben Tejada (.202), and Travis d’Arnaud (.202)… and well, it makes Juan Lagares (.242) look like a batting champion.

No team can consider themselves stronger after losing a player as talented as Matt Harvey, but this pitching staff should survive. The addition of Bartolo Colon should take some the Harvey sting away and the addition of Noah Syndergaard and Rafael Montero at some point this season will actually give the staff some depth they haven’t had in years (maybe decades).

But the brass had three objectives this off season. One, find two strong hitting outfielders, a new shortstop to replace Ruben Tejada, and a trade of Ike Davis to clear up that mess over there. Instead, they signed two outfielders coming off their worst career year, they still have Tejada on short, and Davis.. well, you get the picture.

Do you realize how much has to go right to make this team competitive in 2014. Sure, the starters can carry this team for the first six innings, but then what? There isn’t a single dominant reliever in the pen that you can count on to produce a scoreless seventh or eighth inning on a consistent basis. 

Trust me on the next two statements. One, this game gets a lot easier if your offense scores six or seven runs in the first six innings. And two, this isn’t going to happen with any regularity with what the Mets will field as their offense.

The first thing the Mets have to do is find someone to give them the offensive return that OF Marlon Byrd gave them last year (21-HR, 71-RBI, .848-OBP). Let’s say that turn out to be Granderson.

Next, it will be d’Arnaud’s job to replace John Buck’s 15-HR, 60-RBI season. He may fall short on the home run side, but he should shoot past Buck’s dismal .652-OBP.

But, then what? Look, I think the Mets did a great thing by signing Granderson. I also think that d’Arnaud will join Grandy, Daniel Murphy and Wright as the beginning of a very talented nucleus of everyday players to join their rotation, but I’m not one of those projection-Steamer or whatever the hell you call them people. You have to hit .290 before I say you’re going to hit it the following year.

I simply can’t see any way that the Mets can finish ahead of either Washington of Atlanta. They both are two teams that are too deep with proven talent. Florida has improved, and I’m not sure how to project Philadelphia. It seems to me that all three of these teams will fight it out for third place.

The wild card here seems to be the emergence of Syndergaard and Montero around the all-star break. You could easily see Colon and Young Jr. traded for a future chip and youngters Wilmer Flores (at 1B) and Cesar Puello join the team for a last minute push for… oh, what…  second place?

No.

79-83 – 3^rd Place