Mack’s Morning Report – 1-26-14 – Brian Harrison, AAA/AA Pitching Staffs, Collett-chat, Josh Satin

Brian Harrison –

The retirement of IF Brian Harrison does change a few things in the projected rosters for the full season teams. Harrison had been playing more first base in the past couple of years and was on ‘my’ paper to give Cole Frenzel some competition for the first base job in St. Lucie.

It also takes away any depth at third base (AAA: Lutz, AA: Shields, A+: J.Reynolds, A: Pedro Perez) and doesn’t help break up the shortage of shortstops at the middle of the system (AA: M. Reynolds, A+: Evans) and the mess that Savannah looks like (Cecchini, Rosario, Ponce, Chavez)

AAA/AA Pitching Staffs –

There was some chatter on Mack’s Mets about the fact that the AAA pitching staff needs to be ‘filled out’.  Boy, am I on a different page.

First of all, before I list all the pitchers I have that I project for Las Vegas, I know some of you might say a couple of them could stay behind in Binghamton. Well, here’s what I have on the B-Met squad:

Starters (7) - Rainey Lara, Matt Bowman, Hansel Robles, Angel Cuan, Domingo Tapia, Alex Panteodes, Tyler Pill        

Relievers (10) - Hamilton Bennett, Randy Fontanez, TJ Chism, Brett Mitchell, Shawn Teufel, Greg Peavey, Taylor Whitenton, Cody Satterwhite, Jhonathan Torres, Ty Williams         

So, that’s not going to work, right? Well, here’s Vegas:

Starters (13 ) - Rafael Montero, Noah Syndergaard, Darin Gorski, Jake deGrom, Cory Mazzoni, Logan Verrett, Mark Cohoon, Chris Schwinden, Erik Goeddel, Giancarlo Alvarado, Mitch Talbot, John Lannon, Daisuke Matsuzaka         

Relievers (12 ) - Adam Kolarek, Chason Bradford, John Church, Jack Leathersich, Chase Huchington, Daniel Herrera, Joel Carreno, Daryl Thompson, Miquel Socolovich, Ryan Fraser, Jon Velasquez, Ryan Reid

I could keep going.

            I have 8 starters and 14 relievers in St. Lucie.

Starters (8) - Steven Matz, Michael Fulmer, Gabriel Ynoa, Luis Mateo, Luis Cessa, Jake Kuebler, Matt Koch , Seth Lugo  

Relievers (14) - John Magliozzi, Paul Seward, Beck Wheeler, Marcos Camarena, Hunter Carnevale, David Wynn, Julian Hilario, Luis Rengel, Wanel Mesa, Ernesto Yanez, Shane Bay, Octavio Acosta, Tim Peterson, Tyler Vandenheiden       

            I have 6 starters and 13 relievers in Savannah   

  

Starters (6) - Miller Diaz, Robert Gsellman, John Gant, Carlos Valdez, Dario Alvarez, Logan Taylor

Relievers (13) - Akeel Morris, Ricardo Jacquez, John Mincone, Juan Urbina, Estarlin Morel, A J. Pinera, Christian Chivilli, Robert Coles, Ricky Knapp, Kevin McGowan, Dawrin Frias, Paul Paez, Cameron Mitchell           

Collett-Chat -      

 

Comment From Guest - I know it’s tough to forecast with TJ surgery, but I am in a dynasty league and Matt Harvey is my best player. Should I be worried about him? Would you try to deal him?

Jason Collette: Velocity takes 12-18 months to fully come back, command takes 18-24 months to come back. If I own Harvey in a keeper league, I trade him because that contract will still mature while he doesn’t do much, if anything, for you through mid-2015.

Comment From Grack Zeinke - How low do you see Drew dropping his price in order to sign? with whom?

 Jason Collette: At this point, he must be holding out for the right situation rather than the right dollar amount. He is in the driver’s seat with this, and Yankees seem like the most logical fit.

Comment From Seth - How do you think Curtis Granderson’s power will play in Citi Field? It would be nice to see the Mets hit one or two of those things where the ball goes over the fence….home run, I think it’s called?

 Jason Collette: His power will play just fine. 145 HRs over the past 5 seasons, 73 at home, 72 on the road.

Comment From E - who is your least favorite MLB team for no rational reason? mine is the Mets.

 Jason Collette: The Mets for what they did in 1986. I still hate Jesse Orosco

Charles Thompson asked -

For the past few years the Mets have always had at least one major pitching prospect in the minors.  A pitcher who ranked in mlb's top 50 prospects.  After Montero and Thor graduate, the Mets will need to count on the development of guys like Matz, Fulmer, Flexen, and Whalen for that to be the case.  Now sure, these are all nice arms, but none have the upside of Harvey, Wheeler, and Thor.  I guess Matz could step up, but his injury history isn't encouraging.  If I was Sandy, I'd make damn sure to pick the best pitcher available in next years draft.  A college guy who won't take five years to develop.  Let's face it, in today's game the mets rotation alone is going to cost them over 100 million to keep in tact in five or six years and it's because of this that it's crucial for the mets to continue to stock up on as many arms as possible going forward.  This isn't even about the small market mentality they've adopted, it's common sense.

Harvey has already blown out his elbow.  Even if he comes back strong and wins 15-20 games every year, do you want to pay him 20 million a year when he's one more TJS away from possible retirement?  They are going to have to pick carefully who they decide to pay long term, trade the others for gigantic packages once they become too costly, and it'll be vital to replace those arms with arms that keep the mets contenders moving forward.

What gets me worried is the last three drafts.  Three straight high school bats and a few fliers on some really young arms.  Where's the top of the rotation upside they've tried to draft in these drafts? 

What do you think?

           Mack -  Morning, Charles.

I know you’re the last person on earth that I have to convince that the secret to baseball success in starting pitching, but let’s take a look at the projected Mets rotation candidates in 2015:

Harvey –   25-yrs old - ARB-1/2016 - FA/2019

Wheeler – 26-yrs old - ARB/2017 – FA/2020

Syndergaard – 21-yrs old - ARB/2018 – FA/2021

Montero – 23-yrs old - ARB/2018 – FA/2021

Niese –  27-yrs old - $25.5195mil through 2016

Gee –                28-yrs old - $3.625/ARB-1 -  FA/2017

Mejia -  24-yrs old - ARB-1/2015 – FA/2019

Charles, I’m sure the Mets will make a run at signing a couple of these guys long term, but, even if they don’t, it seems to me that the rotation is set for, at least, the next four years.

I agree with you about power college starters and my draft board has Vanderbilt’s Tyler Beede as the top college pitcher to come out of the draft this year. He could literally make it to the pros by late 2015 and, guess what, he will be there at #10.

That would be my pick, but it won’t be Sandy’s.

If I was Sandy, I would draft the best player on my board, in the first three rounds of the next three drafts, as long as all of them are college juniors and can begin their pro career at the A+ level.

Josh Satin –

           Sure, there are a few categories that Satin is mediocre in, but there are also some categories where he is one of the best and if Satin were to be given more playing time, he would shine. Just based on his Batting Average and Home Run, Runs, RBI output, I would place Satin low on the list of 1st Basemen, but because of his super high doubles and OBP, I would say that Satin ranks as the 10th best 1st Baseman in the MLB and 4th best in the National League behind Goldschmidt, Votto, and Freeman. All he has to do is come to the plate with runners on more often and he will make the All Star team within just a few years.  http://www.digitaljournal.com/sports/op-ed-josh-satin-top-1st-baseman/article/367350#ixzz2rRTJmz3r