Adam Rubin –
Mets payroll currently estimated at $87.1M
Jared Diamond
@jareddiamond - For what it's worth, Sandy Alderson kept his promise: He vowed
payroll would top $85 million. It's at around $87 million right now.
Mets infielder Reese
Havens retired on Wednesday, opening up second base a little in the
organization. Danny Muno is still expected to start at AAA-Las Vegas, but he
may get a run for his money by recently signed Jairo Perez.
Beyond that:
T J Rivera looks to start in Binghamton
Jorge Rivero will backup Dilson Herrera in St. Lucie
LJ Mazzilli should start in Savannah (feel free to flip flop
the names of
Herrera and Mazzilli at this point), with Yucary De La Cruz
filling up the uniform as his backup
And remaining back in extended camp would be Juan Carlos
Gamboa, Yeixon Ruiz, Leon Canelon, and Branden Kaupe.
In actuality, there is a lot of
talent and depth at this position within the Mets organization. My guess is
Herrera will rise to the top as the future Mets starter, come opening day 2017
Here is some projected Juan Lagares numbers....
| SYSTEM | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | RBIS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mets360 | 496 | .255 | .305 | .375 | 6 | 45 |
| Steamer | 431 | .254 | .295 | .365 | 6 | 39 |
| Oliver | 600 | .261 | .299 | .357 | 6 | 53 |
| ZiPS | 564 | .254 | .291 | .360 | 6 | 53 |
Mack - None of the ‘experts are too high on projecting a
decent OBP for Lagares, which, if they are correct, makes his defensive game
even more important. You all know how I feel here. I hope I’m wrong.
Tim Teufel on Ruben Tejada –
“I
think he’s a talented young man. Last year he just got off to such a slow
start. And spending most of his time in Triple-A, we really didn’t get to see a
whole lot of him. And then he started playing well and he got hurt. I think
this is going to be a different year for Ruben. I think he’s going have one of
those nice rebound years and really solidify himself as a big-league shortstop.”
Mack – Everybody (Teufel, Sandy Alderson, J.P. Ricciardi)
seem to be saying good things about Tejada lately. Hopefully, this is more than
an attempt to just boost his confidence before he arrives in camp… early.
BP Mock Prospect Draft
1.14)
Noah Syndergaard, RHP, New York Mets (Craig Goldstein, Baseball Prospectus)- “Ohhhh-kay.
I agonized over this, and I apologize for the delay that caused. My issue is
that the best value continues to be arms, and while I'm not as resistant to
taking a first-round arm as some, my issue is this tier of pitchers is quite
deep in my opinion. Meaning that whomever I take now, someone is going to get a
comparable guy in eight picks or so, meaning I'm robbed of all value in the
pick. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?type=2&articleid=22629#152290
Mack – There were 28 total picks and Thor was the only Met
picked
Joe Janish had his own
spin on the Mets decline in his article debating what Matt Cerrone said about
Omar Minaya – http://www.metstoday.com/9119/13-14-offseason/omar-minaya-myth-vs-reality/ -
Which brings me to the other half of that first statement —
“Minaya spent wildly and created a concentration in payroll that tipped the
franchise over when people got hurt or turned unproductive..
NO. NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO. Can I say it any louder
in a blog? This is easily the most overused line of bovine feces in Metsville.
The Mets didn’t fall apart because the Oliver Perez, Luis Castillo, and Jason
Bay contracts were busts — the franchise “tipped over” because Bernie Madoff’s
pyramid scheme tipped over. You can’t tell me that the Mets suffered through
any bad luck / bad decisions that was more debilitating than nearly every other
team in baseball that took risks. The San Francisco Giants were able to get to
the World Series in spite of enormous free-agent busts such as Aaron Rowand and
Barry Zito; that the Angels were able to win while suffering through expensive
mistakes like Gary Matthews, Jr.; and the Red Sox made annual playoff runs
despite having big chunks of payroll dedicated to under-performing or injured
players such as John Lackey, Jason Varitek, J.D. Drew, and Daisuke Matsuzaka.
As a team based in New York, the Mets should have had the financial wherewithal
to weather the occasional storms, and spend through the mistakes. And they
would have, if their “investments” were more stable than a deck of cards. In
2008, the last year the Mets played at Shea Stadium, attendance was over 4
million and SNY was in its third broadcast season. You’re telling me that a few
bad contracts are what crippled the franchise? No way. The Madoff money tree
had fallen over, and the owners had put a shit-ton of debt into Fred Wilpon’s
21st-century version of Ebbets Field. The contracts of Bay, Santana, Perez, and
Castillo were a pimple on the butt of those two financial catastrophes.
Mack – I don’t want to keep beating an empty wallet. here, but
some of you have to realize that the reason this team is under-preforming is
simply due to the lack of money currently budgeted. Period. You and I both know
if the Mets payroll was in the $125-140mil range for the past 3-4 years, we
wouldn’t be having this discussion.
But we are, and it’s all due to the financial structure of
this team and the Bernie Manoff mess.
It’s getting better.
Curtis Granderson, Eric Young, and Bertolo Colon will bring a
better return this year than Johan Santana, Frank Francisco, and Jason Bay did
last year.
Travis d’Arnaud, Noah Syndergaard, Rafael Montero, and Cesar
Puello join the team this year.
Matt Harvey will return next year.
It’s baby steps, but they’re in the right direction.
Mack,
ReplyDeleteRubin's payroll figure is not firm. It includes over $5 mil in "projections" to cover DL time (like Harvey $500K) and guys making incentives (like Lannan manking the team). Frankly, given the new TV money this year, that number is a disgrace, creditors or not. I give Alderson no credit for "coming close" on Balfour, and I am not in love with Drew either, but think of it this way - how would Met fans feel about 2014 if they added Balfour and Drew on two year deals? I know the WAR shows it may only add up to 5 wins, but man, my view on 2014 AND 2015 would be completely different. So far, it's just the same old same old - a day late and a dollar short.
@TP....The mets are not included on this new TV money so no additional revenue is coming via that
ReplyDeleteOmar's biggest issue was with players who he brought in for big bucks that lost a full season due to injury or just being too bad to put on the field. Pedro, Beltran, Delgado, Santana, Perez, Castillo, Bay, Wagner. that's probably $100 million in salary spent on players who didn't even step on the field; it is probably also about a third of what the Wilpons lost with Madoff
ReplyDeleteSoto? Where did u get that info? The national tv contract went up from like $25 to $50 mil this season I believe?
ReplyDeleteTP said - I give Alderson no credit for "coming close" on Balfour, and I am not in love with Drew either, but think of it this way - how would Met fans feel about 2014 if they added Balfour and Drew on two year deals?
ReplyDeleteAnonymous said - Omar's biggest issue was with players who he brought in for big bucks that lost a full season due to injury or just being too bad to put on the field. Pedro, Beltran, Delgado, Santana, Perez, Castillo, Bay, Wagner. that's probably $100 million in salary spent on players who didn't even step on the field
Mack – Let me ask both of you a question based on end result…
If 2014 ended with Curtis Granderson in the batting box, not swinging at a strike three, on the last day of the season, and the Mets didn’t make the playoffs by one game, would you be happy with what transpired this year?
New contracts were reached with ESPN, FOX, and TBS that will last until 2021 and are contributing $1.5B per season to the MLB Central Fund. This Central Fund is then split amongst the MLB teams via revenue sharing.
ReplyDeleteIn addition teams submit 31% of their local revenue into the Central Fund. The 31% of local revenue is divided evenly, this means teams like the Yankees, Mets, and Dodgers end up LOSING money and Marlins, Rays, etc. gain money.
The Central Fund is then dispersed based on % of local revenue contributed. So the large revenue teams get more money.
However in the Mets case their piece of the pie is getting smaller and smaller. Since 2009, Ads, signage, and concessions revenues are all down 25%. Even scarier is that ticket revenue missed plan by 48% or $113M.
On top of this, within the latest Collective Bargaining Agreement, "the fifteen teams in the largest markets in baseball will be disqualified from receiving revenue sharing." Instead clubs will receive refunds for the original amounts that they contributed unless they incur a luxury tax.
So yea....the Mets are not going to see a dime of this money.
Janish is the biggest Omar apologist there is and proved it once again. He gives all the leeway in the world to the Minaya era but gives zero slack and usually on qualified credit to Alderson.
ReplyDeleteMinaya did a great job st building and getting the team into contention. He did a horrible job keeping it there.
Disassembling the 2006 bullpen was his first mistake, signing Schoenweis was another, and there were many more.
Let's not even mention Bernazard. Sure Omar did a great job getting talent to the minors but once their his person in charge there ruined them.
By the end of his regime it was obvious that Omar was over his head. A better GM and 2007-08 collapses don't happen.
Wow
ReplyDeleteIt is so hard for me to accept it, but the Mets have really become the Pirates and Expos (of the not-so-distant past)
IMO....
ReplyDeletethe biggest mistake that ruined this franchise was moving out of Shea and building Citi Field.
The Wilpons added so much unnecessary debt and fixed payments that were not needed. Shea was still a very functional and fun ballpark.
They would have been better served using perhaps a 1/4 of the money spent on Citi to renovate Shea to make it more comfortable/fan friendly.
Chris -
ReplyDeleteThe Citi Field build is an entire book of it's own and, due to the loss of the economy and the Madoff mess, is the ruination of the team.
The Mets are stuck with paying interest only to lending institutions that are not going to loan this organization another cent until some of the principal begins to be paid back.
Ironically, the value of the team still keeps going up ($2bil+) so the value is there to borrow more
Soto,
ReplyDeleteI don't know the specifics, but I am not sure that your summary of the distribution of the TV money is accurate. Alderson himself this offseason did not deny that the Mets would be receiving more TV money, but he said it was to be used for other needs than payroll. I think the distribution of the National TV contracts is handled in a different manner than the distribution of the 31% shares of local TV revenue.
Mack,
If Grandy went down looking to end the sesaon and the Mets finished one game out, in the moment I would be very upset. However, overall I would be very happy. And, given that they preserved their minor league talent and were not committed to crazy money going forward, I would be absolutely thrilled.
TP-
ReplyDeleteand THAT'S the point... under these new rules, you lose the chance of drafting a top prospect every time you sign a top free agent
The 83rd pick (is it 83 or 82) will be a decent one and frankly I'd rather hold onto it and draft another front line pitcher
@TP
ReplyDeleteIt is handled differently...Its what I laid out....collective revenue sharing out of teams local revenue is split evenly 1/30.
But the TV revenues, via the MLB Central Fund, is split based on the revenues each team makes. So the Yanks, Dodgers, etc. get a bigger piece as should be the case for the Mets.
But then I indicate that the Mets piece may only be making up for lost revenues over the past few years of hundreds of millions of dollars.
Its basically a double edge sword for the Wilpons right now....In order to obtain the benefit of the TV contracts they need to increase local revenues....but in order to do that they need to raise payroll....but He can't afford to raise payroll because of the increased debt burden of Citi Field.
insane financial mathematics...
Mack,
ReplyDeleteI know my post the other day, pointing out the bad decisions the Mets have made, made you want to "shoot your head off".
Your points about the Mets financial distress/stadium costs has made me feel the same way.
Just how many years will this clamp down on the team's wallet?
Just imagine the result in just retaining/replacing players currently on the roster over the next 5 years, if continued.
Free agent salaries continue to sky rocket.
The team is reluctant to trade any of its young talent.
Players (and in the Mets case important players) always seem to come up with major injuries every year.
And the cost of resigning our own players will continue to sky-rocket.
Just imagine, all of the prospects prosper in 2-5 years.
Best case scenario for everyone (YAY!!!!)
Arbitration costs for D'Arnaud, Wheeler, Harvey, Flores, Lagares, Parnell, Syndegaard, & Montero combined with Wright and filling out the rest of the roster cheaply would be too much on the Wilpon's wallet.
5 years later, Wright is in the late stages of his career and what success will he have enjoyed?
I'm scared.
Bob -
ReplyDeleteOnce again, I'll write about your question tomorrow...
This time, in an 11am post
ReplyDeleteMack,
We can then agree to disagree. I will cite your study of draft pick success. Drew on a reasonable 2 year is certainly worth that 80s pick. Additionally, it would likely alleviate the need to trade a prospect in the next two years to get a SS, so keeping a good prospect in essence replaces the 80s pick.
Soto, got it. Thanks for the explanation.