Herb G - Memo to Ike: Don’t Unpack Your Suitcase Just Yet.

When Ike Davis arrived in camp last week he probably wasn’t wondering which of the above caps might he be wearing this season. In fact, he stated that he was surprised that he was still with the Mets, but he was looking forward to spring training and the competition for the Mets starting first base job. After an off season replete with trade rumors surrounding Davis, things seemed to have calmed down over the past several weeks. The Brewers found alternatives to Ike and moved on, the Astros seemingly lost interest, and both the Orioles and Pirates had rejected Sandy Alderson’s requests regarding his expected return for Davis.

Suddenly, out of the blue, reports surfaced indicating both the Orioles and Pirates are still interested in Davis. First Jayson Stark of ESPN reported that there wasn’t much substance to talk of Pirates interest in Kendrys Morales, but that they continue to monitor Ike Davis’ status in Mets camp. Then The N.Y. Post’s Joel Sherman wrote that “Ike Davis remains of interest to the Orioles as they continue to try to land a slugger who will work mainly as a DH.” Sherman seems to discount Morales and Nelson Cruz, the Orioles’ alternatives to Davis, because of the loss of their #54 draft pick and their price, which would inevitably be much higher than Davis’ $3.5 million salary for 2014.

Considering the Orioles first, it would seem that relegating Ike Davis, regarded by many as an elite fielder at first base despite some regression last season, to a DH role would be a waste. True, he is considerably cheaper than either Morales or Cruz, and no draft picks would be sacrificed, but he is also considerably riskier than either of them as well. If it is a DH that the Orioles want, and they are willing to go the inexpensive, risky route, Sandy Alderson should seek to convince them that Lucas Duda is a much better choice than Ike Davis. Duda’s limitations in the field are well known, but he makes a fine DH. While Duda has never cracked 32 HRs in a season, he has the raw power to do so. And their career stats are remarkably close, as seen in the chart below.

	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	AB/HR	K Rate %	BB Rate %
Davis	0.242	0.334	0.434	0.768	22.2	27.6%	12.1%
Duda	0.246	0.342	0.424	0.766	25.1	27.3%	11.3%

Actually, Davis comes out slightly better statistically, which is why Duda may not command the return in a trade that Ike would. During the earlier Davis trade talks, the Orioles steadfastly refused to part with Eduardo Rodriguez, the 20 year old lefty pitching prospect that Alderson coveted. If Alderson can, in fact, convince the Orioles to part with Rodriguez, it might be worth trading Davis. But if Alderson refocuses his efforts on trading Duda, he may have to lower his sights and go for a prospect a bit further down on the Orioles totem pole. Perhaps RHP Mike Wright (no relation to David) would be enough to make a deal.

A deal with the Pirates would seem to make much more sense. The Pirates were a playoff team last season for the first time in many a moon, and they certainly want to put a contending team on the field this year. One of their major weaknesses is first base, where they need a left handed bat to platoon with Gaby Sanchez. The right hand hitting Sanchez crushes lefties, (career .300/.399/496) but is weak facing right handed pitching. (.242/313/.387) The Pirates seem to have discounted their internal options. Travis Ishikawa is regarded as too light hitting against righties, and well regarded prospects Andrew Lambo and Chris McGuiness are considered too inexperienced to trust with the job at this time. Trade alternatives to Ike Davis (or Lucas Duda) are Mitch Moreland of Texas, who could theoretically become available if the Rangers sign Kendrys Morales, or either of Seattle’s Justin Smoak or Logan Morrison, one of whom might be surplus if the Mariners sign Morales. Let’s look at how the potential platoon mates stack up career wise:

Career	Split	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	YR ABs	Proj HR
Sanchez	vs. LHP@RHB	0.300	0.399	0.496	0.895	145	6
Duda	vs. RHP@LHB	0.255	0.356	0.456	0.812	435	20
Davis	vs. RHP@LHB	0.256	0.356	0.471	0.827	435	22
Moreland	vs. RHP@LHB	0.258	0.325	0.463	0.788	435	23
Smoak	vs. RHP@LHB	0.229	0.323	0.397	0.720	435	19
Morrison	vs. RHP@LHB	0.251	0.340	0.446	0.786	435	15

At bats are projected at 580, ¾ of which would be facing RHP and ¼ vs. LHP.
Proj HRs are calculated as career HR/AB extended by the number of ABs.

If Ishikawa’s career .737 OPS vs. righties is regarded as too light, it would seem that Smoak’s .720 wouldn’t fare much better, but perhaps I shouldn’t editorialize. Look at the numbers yourselves. To this observer, either Davis or Duda seem to be superior options to any of the alternatives. (I must admit, however, that if only 2013 performance is used, Davis does not come out looking as good, and Smoak comes out looking much better.)

Alderson has been seeking RHSP Nick Kingham in return for Davis, and thus far the Pirates have held out. As with the Orioles, if Alderson can get his first choice, he would probably pull the trigger on a Davis trade. But if either the Rangers or Mariners are willing to accept less, one of their candidates might win out. If the Pirates are as unwilling as Alderson to give up any pitching to fill a hole, might they be more willing to part with a position prospect, like OF Josh Bell or SS Alen Hanson, or possibly a solid older (26 yr old) pitching prospect like Kyle McPherson?

Stay tuned. We may get the answers to these questions if interest in Davis flares up again as we move deeper into spring training.