I believe the Mets could win anywhere from 72 to 85 games
this season. A large contributing factor to that record will be the performance
of the other NL East teams. Aside from the Nats we could be looking at weak
division this season. Washington looks like a rock-solid choice to win the
division. Beyond that, I don’t think any of the other three teams have improved
themselves over 2013. The Braves are loaded with young talented arms but lack a
true ace, they also have a talented but volatile OF and Uggla is still the 2B.
The Phillies are old, and relying on Byrd, Ruiz and the other cast of assorted
greybeards to remain healthy and productive all season is a stretch. As for the
Marlins, they have a highly talented OF and rotation, but an IF of Jones,
Furcal, Hecchavaria and McGahee is lackluster at best.
If all three of those teams underperform and the Mets can
add even 5-6 wins over their 34-42 interdivision mark that gives them a .500
record over 47% of their 162 games: 39-37.
2013 Interdivision record:
Philadelphia 10-9
Washington 7-12
Miami 8-11
Breakdown of those
Vs. the Braves
Lost 6 games by 2 or less runs
Scored 2 or less runs in 5 losses
After dropping 5 straight over two series in May
went 7-4 before dropping 3 of 4 to close out the season (in 2 of losses the
Mets scored 1 run)
Vs. the Phils
Started 2013 1-5 against Philadelphia
Took 6 of 9 on the road, and went 4-2 at
vs.Phillies after dropping first four 2013 contests.
Vs. the Nats
Dropped 5 games by 2 or fewer runs
Scored 2 or fewer runs 8x
Went 0-5 to close out season against Washington
Vs. Marlins
Lost 5 games by 2 or less runs
Scored 2 or fewer runs in 7 losses
3-7 in Miami
Overall record vs. Division:
15-24 through July 1st
19-18 rest of season
The Mets face division opponents 25 times in
April-May. A strong early season performance against division foes could go a
long way toward indicating what direction this season may be headed. The
addition of Young, Granderson, and (hopefully) revitalized Davis along with TDA
should give the Mets more heft at the plate. They certainly have a better
defense, especially in the outfield. On the hill, we’re minus Harvey but aside
from him, we’re stronger 2-5 than in the opening months of 2013.
I’m not one to put much emphasis on a team’s
performance in the early going but I believe it’s important the 2014 Mets get
off to at least a decent start. It can go a long way toward setting the tone
for the remainder of the season. By July the team could have a completely dynamic
with the arrivals of Syndegaard, Montero, possibly Puello, Walters and Leatherstitch
as well as regular playing time for Flores.
So if they get to around .500 against their NL East opponents where would the other 45 or so wins come from? Could the
Mets go 46-40 against the rest of the NL, the Yankees, and the AL West? Over the remaining 86 games they’d need to
win 46. Is it possible?
D -
ReplyDeleteI agree on your high end. 85 wins is a good target.
The key to this will be a strong and successful bullpen. The 2014 Mets have enough talented starters, timely bats, and stellar defense to be leading 60-70% of their games after 6 innings...
The first thing that has to happen is the starter has to stretch himself for one more great inning.
If that happens 50% of the ime, and 3-4 relievers go under 3.00-ERA... this could happen through June.