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| Masahiro Tanaka is John Sickels' top prospect entering 2014 |
Mets made the cut:
18- RHP Noah Syndergaard
46- RHP Rafael Montero
63- C Travis d'Arnaud
109- OF Brandon Nimmo
In the preface to the list, Sickels mentions Nimmo's hot start and what it might do to his ranking come mid-season:
"Pre-season analysis is still heavily-weighted here. That said, there are a few player whose outlook has already improved substantially. Hot starters like Mookie Betts, Joey Gallo, and Brandon Nimmo will rank much higher in the next version of this list in July if they maintain their current momentum".
Four out of 150 is a bit disappointing for a team still in a rebuild mode, especially when you consider Travis d'Arnaud is one of the oldest on the list and has since graduated, and even more so when you weigh in that Montero and Syndergaard probably will not be eligible for this list come this time next year.
However, Sickels does list a couple dozen players at the end of the 150 who are "In The Picture". Four additional Mets made this list:
IF Wilmer Flores
LHP Steve Matz
C Kevin Plawecki
1B Dominic Smith
I am a bit surprised Smith was left off the top 150 as many other experts like him much more. In some cases, Smith is right around Montero and d'Arnaud in the top 50 in the entire game. Other 2013 draftees who I do not deem nearly as talented did make the list, which comes as a surprise.
I expect Brandon Nimmo is solidly in the top 100 now and will only get higher if he continues to hit and get on base like he has through the first month of the season.
Outside of Met world, I still have no idea why people think Javier Baez is a better shortstop than Francisco Lindor. First off, Baez is not a shortstop. He will have to move to second or third and not because Starlin Castro is planted at short for the Cubs--it's because Baez is not a good defensive shortstop. Lindor has a chance to become one of the true stars of the game. What I would do for the Mets to trade for that guy.
It amazes me how out of love even someone like Sickels can fall for players who are hurt. Miguel Sano, Jameson Taillon, and Taijuan Walker should all be far higher than they are.
The 2012 draft was a controversial one for the Mets scouting team as they selected a player better known for his athleticism and bloodlines than his true baseball skill. That lack of skill has led to a bunch of poor hitting and questionable defense from SS Gavin Cecchini through his first couple seasons in the Mets system. There were players like OF Courtney Hawkins who seemed to grab the affection of Mets fans but Hawkins has struggled mightily as well and missed this list (and the "In The Picture" section). Who did make the list who was selected after #12 Cecchini?
19- RHP Eddie Butler (46th selection)
25- RHP Lucas Giolito (15th selection)
43- OF Jessie Winker (49th selection)
45- RHP Marcus Stroman (22nd selection)
48- RHP Lance McCullers (41st selection)
70- OF Stephen Piscotty (37th selection)
76- 3B Joey Gallo (39th selection)
77- RHP Lucas Sims (21st selection)
92- RHP Mitch Nay (58th selection)
115- RHP Chris Stratton (20th selection)
124- RHP Jose Berrios (32nd selection)
148- C Clint Coulter (27th selection)
Add to that a couple on the "In The Picture" list and it does look like the Mets selected poorly in the first round in 2012. While Cecchini could be a late-bloomer much like Nimmo, I do not see him as a shortstop nor someone who will hit enough for second. I very much like Plawecki but I had my heart set on Berrios, who was taken just a few picks before. As soon as he was off the board, I wanted McCullers, who is the 48th-ranked player in the game.
I covered the 2012 draft more than any other year and I wanted Stroman and McCullers with the picks we had in the first round, based on the players who were available. Stroman went way too late, simply because scouts have a foolish prejudice against height…something that plagued both Stroman and McCullers. Both find themselves in the top 50 prospects in the game.
Some of the others were tough. There was no indication that Giolito was going to sign. Piscotty, Gallo, Winker, and Butler were nowhere near the top of anyone's board, and Stratton was a late-riser who I still do not think is all that good. I could have seen a reach for Sims, who has always looked very good, and I thought Stroman would have been a great pick, but the preference was to take a hitter and the hitters in that part of the draft (assuming you do not reach for Gallo or Winker, which could have backfired just a badly), were just not that good. You could have had James Ramsey, Hawkins, D.J. Davis, or Tyler Naquin, and made an equally poor pick. While I think the Mets should have taken the best player available (which would have been a pitcher: Giolito, Stroman, or Sims), they went hitter and got the guy they liked best on the board at the time. There is still time for Cecchini to come around but of the three high school first round bats (Nimmo, Cecchini, Smith), my guess is we go 2 for 3.
As for Sickels, I think he is the final word when it comes to prospects so I am a bit disappointed he sees only four Mets in the top 150 in the game. I do think Smith, Matz, Plawecki, and a sleeper (Robert Whalen anyone?) should vault their way into the top 150 next year along with whichever player we select with the 10th pick in the 2014 draft. This system is steadily improving and Sickels has said that he considers it one of the better systems in the National League. However, it seems like that assessment comes from its depth rather than its elite talent.
While I am biased, Dominic Smith has to be on that list.
A couple of things -
ReplyDeleteCourtney Hawkins had two private workouts by the Mets just prior to the draft. Everyone, including him, thought he would be picked by the Mets until Cecchini showed up in CitiField for a 'tryout'.
Giolito (his father is a reader here and a big Mets fan) was injured prior to the draft and his standing in the draft was hurt badly... but that only increased his desire it sign, if the money was right. Every team knew that if they picked him, in any round, it was capable to sign him, but it would cost the team.
Lastly -
also on this list from the Pirates:
#50 - OF Austin Meadows
#54 - RHP Tyler Glasnow
#91 - C Reese McGuire let me tell you... if you want to trade Kevin Plawecki some day, you couldn't have a better backup major league defensive catcher than McGuiire)
#99 - RHP Jameson Taillon
#100 - Nick Kingham
#117 - Alen Hanson
#130 - Luis Heredia
Top 150 plus the few dozen honorable mentiones works out to about an average of 6 per team, so for the Mets to have 8 is not bad...and the 8 do not include Herrera, Degrom, or Puello, each of whom you could make a case for.
ReplyDeleteI'd imagine that long term, Eric Campbell and Dykstra might pan out better than some of the 150, but would not really get considered for that list given the age risk.
And we do have depth as you say, and several others not in the Met 8, like Bowman, Whelan, Morris, and Fulmer. All in all, Mets minors comes out pretty solid.
Cecchini may well be a big mistake - hopefully, he pans out, but if not, hopefully mets won't make that sort of mistake again.
Thomas, that is a good point. My concern is more that apart from Syndergaard, who will graduate from this list within a couple months and probably isn't going anywhere, there isn't really any huge impact guy. We don't have a Polanco or a Lindor. You hoped Nimmo, Cecchini, and Smith would be those guys but they look like solid players but not elite, blue-chip talent. This causes two problems:
ReplyDelete1.) While teams can succeed by being well-rounded but unspectacular, you do need dominant players to, well, dominate.
2.) When it comes time for the Mets to make a big trade, which is going to happen, it's much more tough to convince teams to take three guys "In The Picture", or on the fringe of the top talent in the minor leagues instead of at the top of it, for an elite return. That's my only concern.
And Mack, I remember the Giolito debacle as well. I was particularly frustrated because both Lucas and his father are Mets fans and even though it would have been a huge risk and a lot of money, I wished then and now that the Mets had take the chance. If I were GM, I would have gone with Stroman. I would have thought he'd be cheaper, quicker to the bigs, and just about the best player on the board. You would have gone with Hawkins and a lot of fans would have taken Giolito. It really is a tough call but Cecchini really looks like an awful pick in a draft that clearly had a ton of talent. Meh.
ReplyDeleteAnd yea, the Pirates are absolutely loaded. So many people like the Twins and the Cardinals. I think I like the Pirates system best.
ReplyDeleteMy brother does not follow this stuff much, not post comments, although he is a big lifelong Met fan. He knew enough, though, that he was SCREAMING when they took Cecchini and not Giolito. Pick the best is the best approach long term for dominant and tradeable talent, so I agree with what I am reading above. I wanted a hitter in that draft, but not a speedless slap hitter. A slugger. I'll take an elite pitcher or unflawed slugger in this draft.
ReplyDeleteI really don't have anything against Cecchini but I just didn't understand the pick.
ReplyDeleteGiolito was such a steal there.