Reese Kaplan - Do Something Part Two -- Top Shelf Prize Time

As a follow up to the “Do Something” article, I figured the end of April was as good a time as any to analyze the stats of this surprisingly successful 15-11 Mets team.  Someone asked me before the season how I felt they would do during their first 22 game tough stretch to open the season against some of the league’s best and I said I had expected something along the lines of 9-13.   To have them prove me wrong feels good – very good – but there’s so much more that needs to be done. 

This club is built on pitching.  That revelation should come as no surprise to anyone.  It’s the pitching that’s largely responsible for the early season success.  Right now the team is in the top half of baseball in most pitching categories, including 12^th in ERA, 14^th in strikeouts, 12^th in batting average against and 13^th in WHIP.  The only black mark on an otherwise credible record is home runs surrendered -- they are 27^th out of 30 teams. 

It’s nice to know on any given night the Mets should produce a quality start.  Gone are the days of starters like Aaron Laffey, Mike Pelfrey and Chris Schwinden when multiple 3 run innings were never far from the back of your mind.  In fact, after the initial stumbles against Washington, the bullpen hasn’t been bad, with pretty much everyone contributing something positive at one time or another. 

Unfortunately, the hitting is even worse than I suspected.  Paradoxically, for an offensively challenged team they are in the 18^th and 17^th spots respectively for Runs and RBIs.  The Mets seem to draw a lot of walks and steal bases when on the rare occasions when they get men on base, but after that they’re ranked 27^th to 30^th in every other offensive category.   Hits, batting average, OPS, HRs…you name it, they’re trailing nearly everyone.  They are 29^th (or 2^nd depending on your perspective) for hitters racking up strikeouts and dead last in both total bases and slugging. 

Some things are pretty sure to improve.  David Wright and Curtis Granderson should show more power.  Chris Young might rediscover his mojo.  Lucas Duda might become consistent.  Travis d’Arnaud is showing signs of life.  Daniel Murphy already has 6 steals and may top 30 for the season. 

The area where the team has an ongoing problem is shortstop where Ruben Tejada has become something of a divisive figure among Mets fans.  There doesn’t appear to be anyone straddling the fence.  He’s either bound to regain his previous success or he’s destined for the Chin-lung Hu scrap heap of players who never put it all together. 

In his best year – 2012 – Tejada hit a commendable .289 over 501 ABs.  His OBP was .333 – better than the career mark of the guy Terry Collins trots out there night after night.  Unfortunately that’s where the highlights end.  He had just 1 HR and only 25 RBIs. He stole 4 bases but was also caught trying to steal 4 times.    That’s bad by anyone’s standards.  If that level of performance is the best fans can expect, then perhaps a change really is in order.  He’s been a bit hot lately, with his average up to the .220s (which is an improvement over his abbreviated 2013 campaign which saw him finish at a paltry .202).  However, over his last 300+ ABs he’s on a 162 game pace for a .207 AVG with 0 HRs, 32 RBIs and the same 4 SBs.  Right now he is ranked dead last on Fangraphs in WAR among qualifying shortstops.

Unfortunately the stories emanating from the ubiquitous anonymous source on Wednesday suggested that the Mets are not keen on the Wilmer Flores to shortstop experiment.  With neither Danny Muno nor Anthony Seratelli proving to be the answer, you could dip down into AA.   Matt Reynolds is hitting well for the first time in his minor league career -- .373 -- but his defensive skills are about on par with what you’d get from Flores.  Wilfredo Tovar can flash the leather but he’s never been much of a hitter despite his current .317 average.  He’s got a little speed and no power, so he’s probably not much of an upgrade over Tejada.  Like Tejada, he can play either of the middle infield positions.  This year he’s primarily at 2B. 

It’s about time to look outside the organization to do something bold.  Whether it’s an established major league shortstop or a highly regarded top prospect, it might be time to part with some of the arms we’ve been stockpiling since the Omar Minaya days.  Jon Niese, Dillon Gee, Jenrry Mejia, Steve Matz and Matt Harvey all came under his stewardship.  Sandy Alderson has added to this wealth with pitchers like Noah Syndergaard, Rafael Montero, Jacob de Grom, Gabriel Ynoa and others.  Throw in Bartolo Colon, Zack Wheeler, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Jeremy Hefner.  They can’t possibly find slots for all of them.  It’s time now to turn these chips in and grab some prizes off the top shelf.  If the new shortstop can also lead off and steal some bases, then multiple problems will be solved with a single trade.