Robb - How To Improve The Mets

I’ve been thinking about how to improve the Mets, so I decided to go back and use an old tactic that we use in Corporate Development. What do we have of value and to whom?  Is it worth more in our hands or someone else’s.  In this case versus products or assets its players.

So who wants our assets (players)? Who values them more then we do.  Can we sell something high that we don’t believe in?  This is clearly about finding places where our assets are worth more to them then they are to us.  Sometimes people buy things that aren’t strategic fits to the untrained eye, but because they know something else.

Before we determine what is a fair, I repeat a fair price (stop being Yankee fans and think you can trade Solarte and ARod for Kershaw, but dude it’s the same amount of money).  We should see where and why our players are a good fit for someone.  It’s more important to find a fit first then to determine the price.  Like any company there are certain assets, which will be off the table as they are part of our core and then there are ones we would sell but for a higher premium then they are worth.  Some will be worth more to us then to anyone else. Also we probably aren’t trading a front line player to the Phillies, the Yankees, The Nationals and the Braves.  The Marlins don’t count as they don’t really function like a normal rival and they are going to have to find a taker for Stanton someday and who knows what direction they are actually going in.

Things to remember: Teams have to want our guys not just accept them.  Sure they would take some of them for free but they wouldn’t give up anything of value for them.  Teams don’t trade for utility guys or for 4^th or 5^th starters. They receive those guys for players they traded in 3 for 1’s etc.  So they have to think the starters they trade for will be their third best or better and or have potential to be that and are young and hard throwing.  Position players have to have a position for them and be an upgrade, whether it’s OF, 1b, 3b or 2^nd base and usually cheaper then what they could find elsewhere for similar value. We clearly don’t have a shortstop. Prospect for prospect trades rarely happen outside of change of scenery type trades.  Trades are about building the farm or helping the major league team.

In the Mets online community there seems to be this big desire for certain players on other teams (joc pedereson), but do we really have anything the dodgers want, they wont trade him just to trade him, that would be an inefficient use of the marketplace and well those Guggenhiem guys don’t do that in the business world.  So that’s what this exercise is about.  Not what we can get in return.  Think of it as who is calling Alderson.

I am only going to look at guys expected to contribute in the majors this year

First the not for sale group: (FYI, guys with superhero nicknames)

Wright (Captain America), Harvey (The dark night), Syndegaard (Thor)

Yup, that’s it. Unless it is Mike Trout it is not happening.

Don’t think we should sell, but would for the right albeit higher price:

T’DA, Wheeler, Familia, Lagares, Montero, Niese

Don’t think we could trade yet:

Granderson, Colon, Duda

Our best assets that I would be willing to part with: You have to give something up to get something back

Gee, Meija, DeGrom, Murphy, Vic Black, Flores

Assets worth parting with:

Young (s), Tejada (is not the answer), all remaining relievers

There are other guys but they aren’t really valuable or problematic at the moment. No josh satin or Allen Dykstra aren’t worth anything to anyone. No matter how hard you try.

Pitching:

Don’t think we should sell, but would for the right albeit higher price:

Wheeler - Hard throwing 23 year old right hander former top prospect

Niese - Prime years left handed start signed under team friendly contract

There is almost no team that wouldn’t want, Wheeler or Niese. Wheeler is young w proven MLB talent. Niese is a left-hander signed to a team friendly contract that goes out and does his work. 6 inn 3 runs, lefty bank on it.  At worst he’s a three at best he’s on cliff Lee’s trajectory.

These are your highest value assets, so you can pick a team any team and they would be interested for the right price. So you are probably not moving them unless you got overwhelmed.

Montero – Montero is a young pitcher with 3 major league starts, a right hander under 6 feet, but who just struck out ten in a game.  He has no injury history, will be on top prospect lists at mid season.  The problem is he’s not really a MLB asset yet, he just doesn’t have enough data to be considered in the same way that Wheeler does.  Nor does he have dominating stuff.  Then again neither did Maddux as his plus plus was control. (not comparing just pointing that out at what a 23 year old  Maddux was probably thought of as.   Traditionally these guys get traded before the majors for a guy that helps you get to the playoffs or bc a GM doesn’t believe in the guy.  There is no team that doesn’t need a young right hander who can throw six innings. They just don’t know what he is yet.  Is he a 2 or a 4/5.  Will he break down. He is an asset to any team, but maybe the cardinals.  Think about what he is, not what he isn’t when you think about trading him. He is desirable.

Team who might want him the most: teams that are up and coming or poor because you cant call him proven yet, usually a team like the Mets:

            Colorado, Houston, the A’s, the Marlins, Tampa Bay

Sidenote: In fact you wont find the cardinals on this list at all, except maybe for a specialist reliever; every one of their players is better then what the Mets have or signed long term outside of Wright.  Though they might have interest in Lagares, bc a big defensive CF is’s a philosophy they believe in.

Familia – Familia is a young hard throwing right handed potential closer of the future who outside of TC’s not trusting him should have been the 8^th inning guy nearly immediately.  Closer in waiting and cheap.  Has all the prerequisite stats or size, age and velocity.

Teams that should want him:

All of them, bc he is better then a 1/3 of the bullpen guys in the league, probably 2/3^rd next year, makes the minimum and could be a closer two years from now.  Not a hugely tradable asset at the moment so someone would have to overvalue him hugely.

Our best assets that I would be willing to part with:

Gee- Gee is for me the most sellable asset. He’s a 3/2.  Not James Shields, bc he’s a not a strikeout guy, but with another good year he’s in that mode, a guy who gets results.  He’s been good for the last year, but he’s not one of those players that fans love, but GM’s do.  He’s not a potential guy, he’s a results guy.  Never going to throw 95 but his stats are good and its clear that he’s a pitcher.  He might not be a game seven starter but if your team is any good he’ll win 12-15 games.  His health is a bit of a concern, but he’s controllable for the next few years heading into his prime and will be about a 5 – 7 MM next year. So any team can afford the salary. GMs don’t get credit for getting these guys, but they usually help them keep their jobs.

Teams that should want him: these are teams that need starters or reliable starters who are better then just innings guys so either they have a dearth of pitching or are on the cusp of being a WS team or need price controlled starts:

Texas, Toronto, Detroit (off season), Cubs, A’s, Seattle, Tampa Bay, Minnesota, Red Sox’s, Baltimore, Kansas City, Milwaukee, the Angels, Arizona, Cleveland

Meija – Meija might become a huge asset during the off season. He’s arbitration eligible, has a history or arm issues, but if he continues to pitch like this, closers before big paydays are market inefficiencies at the moment.  Cheap closers who are more then just a hard thrower are hard to find.  Healthy he is a big asset.  There are questions about his health. Questions about Control or pitchability there are not.

Teams that should want him: clubs that don’t want to pay a lot for a closer or don’t have an 8^th inning or better guy: like the Mets.

Red Sox, Detroit, Cubs, Baltimore, Tampa Bay, Giants, Arizona, A’s, white sox,

Pittsburgh, San Diego, Minnesota

deGrom – deGrom is a lot like Montero except he has the good size, the harder fastball, but he also has more age and injury risk.  He’s probably more of a ¾ on a mid tier team or a 4/5 on a good team.  Looking at him pitch he might be an excellent reliver.  Or one of those starters that beats up on bad teams but gets hit by good teams.  He’s had some good success in MLB so far which probably plays up with value, but like Montero these guys usually get traded for MLB assets for a playoff bound team before they make the majors or after the prove the cant be something really good.  He could be an asset in a year if he continues to pitch well or moves to the bullpen. Injuries doubts will always be a concern for him.

Teams that should want him:

            Texas, this has Texas written all over him. The Reds.  San Diego.  Seattle.  The Giants.  Milwaukee.  The Angels bc they just need pitchers.

Vic Black – Stop issueing walks and he’d be with Familia even though he’s older.  He is a great piece to include in any deal but by himself has limited value based on upside.  Hard throwing right handed potential 8^th inning guys or closer.  Cheap and controllable. 

Teams that should want him:

            As a second player in a deal he would appeal to ever team. But he’s not a player you trade for but get in a trade. But he’s a guy you take without question to make up for any perceived lack of balance in the trade, which makes him a huge asset.  As he will make a lot of GM’s be willing to take more then a flyer on a guy as he might be a homerun. Daniel Murphy + Vic Black is an attractive package to someone.

Don’t think we could trade yet:

Colon – Colon is what he is, 41, the round mound of the pitching mound.  He has a year+ left at 10 mm per.  He hasn’t pitched great, but not terrible.  Does any team really want him. Right now, no.  If he has 4 good starts in row, maybe at the trade deadline. 

Teams that should want him:

            Whichever team at the deadline is dealing with an injury to a starter that is leading or in the playoff race.  Might have to throw in the some money.

Hitting

Don’t think we should sell, but would for the right albeit higher price:

T’DA – TDA has not been what we were hoping for, but he’s been one of the highest rated catching prospects over the last 3 years.  He was the player in the Dickey trade we forget that now.  Its really too early to call him a bust, he’s defense is better then expected. He has hit everywhere but the major leagues so far.  Young catching is impossible to find with a hit tool.  Sometimes catchers take forever. 

Teams that should want him:

Blue Jays, Giants (yes, Bosey aint going to be a catcher much longer at all), White sox, Angels, Tampa Bay, Cubs, Houston, Texas, Pirates, Indians.

Basically everyone without a young stud catcher, an all star catcher or an expensive old catcher or a top tier prospect they are going to give every shot to like the mariners and reds.

Lagares

Juan Legares, - A player who his own manager cant seem to commit to.  Legares is a top flight defensive center fielder, 25 years old not arb eligible and has the potential to become better then a 250 hitter with the bat.  He is not a finished product, but fans love him.  This off season the Cardinals traded for this player with less potential on the offensive side (mostly bc Peter Bourjos still isn’t hitting) and gave up a 3^rd baseman of which there are not many. Albeit a flawed one who once was a WS MVP.

           

Teams that should want him:

            The Cardinals (try once try again), The Astros, The Mariners, The white Sox, The Blue Jays, The Orioles, The Indians, The A’s, Kansas City

There just aren’t many pure centerfielders with upside, but the value is limited by not knowing what he is offensively yet.

Our best assets that I would be willing to part with: You have to give something up to get something back

Murphy and  Flores – two men without positions

Murphy is a professional hitter. 280+ 10 -15 homeruns, some steals, some bonehead plays, a future in broadcasting.  Murphy is a adequate defensive 2^nd baseman.  A pretty good hitter and obviously a good teammate. If Murphy played 3^rd base or left field he’d be a pretty hard player to find. But he plays second. Not cheap but not expensive either. He’s a professional hitter with a proven track record and teams need that

Teams that should want him:

            If you think he could play third for you there are a lot more:

            He’s a perfect fit for the Giants as they need upgrades at 2^nd and 3^rd.  The Dodgers (3^rd), The Royals, The Indians, Minnesota, The Cubs

Flores – Flores is not a shortstop, he’s probably not a great third baseman or even second baseman but like Murphy he could play there for someone.  He has a ton of upside at the plate given his youth.  But youth and a lack of positional value make his value to someone else hard to determine.  He should be of most interest to an American League team, for that reason.  If he played everyday we might know what to make of the bat, but he just looks like he will be hitting the ball hard if he ever feels comfortable in the field or in the managers office. But he is an unproven commodity

Teams that should want him:

            Houston, The Royals, Seattle likes dh types, The Giants,

Don’t think we could trade yet:

Granderson – 1^st year of a 4 year contract, if I am willing to trade him there must be something wrong with him or I am holding a firesale, for pennies on the dollar.  Its just a bad way to correlate value to your other assets.  Lets talk in two years if he should be sent to a contender as a rental or a salary dump

Duda – He was out there.  He won the job.  Let him play.  As an owner of an asset class I had my opportunity to move it already and chose to keep it. I ee no reason to change that now.

Assets worth parting with:

Eric Young – Do you need a 4^th outfielder with speed.  A second baseman with speed.  A leadoff hitter with speed.  Did you really like his dad.

            Teams that should want him:

            Whichever team wants an old school manager who is looking for a leadoff hitter

or a playoff bound team that needs speed and a utility player. 

The Giants, Milwaukee, The Royals, Detroit

Chris Young – I have power, I play centerfield. I was once a dangerous hitter and for the last two years I have been mired in a slump.  I am a very good guy, but should be hitting seventh on a playoff contender. Or eigth on a team desperate for a centerfielder w power.

Teams that should want him:

            I honestly don’t know. Seattle is dumb, maybe the Red Sox, The royals are searching for power?

Now the questions, do you think there are other teams that want these guys, which ones?