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6/18/14

Morning Report – June 18th – June Goals, B-Mets Promotions


                                                                                             
Coming Later Today –          
                                                   
        9 30 am – Herb G – Minor League Report

        11 00 am - Burgamy Slams Flying Squirrels 5-1

       12 00 pm - Christopher SotoSABR Talk: Daniel Murphy is Having a Career Year....And it's Real Folks

         3 00 PM - Pick # (1105) - SS Tristan Gray - Elkins (TX) HS

         5 00 PM - 2015 Draft Profile  - 2015 Draft Profile  -  RHP  -  Walker Buehler  -  Vanderbilt

         7 00 PM - Draft Profile - Dayton Dugas - OF -  Sam Houston (LA) HS 


Morning.


Mike Puma @NYPost_Mets  -  Regarding d'Arnaud, if he remains in Vegas past June 28, he will be out of options beginning next season. Mets would prefer to keep option.



June goals –

I’m not sure where all your heads are and whether you have thrown in the 2014 towel (like I have) or you still think there is a chance for the Mets to make the playoff. I don’t. In fact, I believe there is a good change the Mets will get one of the first seven picks in the 2015 draft.

All I want for 2015 is the good health for all the talented players in this organization. This includes minor league pitchers like Rainy Lara, Robert Whelan, and Rafael Montero.

I don’t have a handle yet on that draft and how deep it is. I do know there are at least 20 quality players that we will be tracking all year long.

Still, for now, I want to see a few things develop:


1.    I want to see SP Dillon Gee get healthy and return to the Mets rotation (replace Daisuke Matsuzaka (trade).

2.   I want to see CF Juan Lagares also back in the Mets line-up and end the season fit (replace Matt den Dekker - AAA).

3.   I want P Rafael Montero to straighten out his AAA-game and return to New York, this time as a relief pitcher (DFA Dana Everland to AAA.)

4.   I want C Travis d’Arnaud on a plane and back behind the Mets plate before June 27th (DFA Taylor Teagarden, demote Anthony Recker to AAA, promote Juan Centeno from AAA to Queens).

5.   I want SP Noah Syndergaard to be a factor at the AAA level so he’s ready to compete for a 2015 rotation slot in Queens. If he’s promoted to the MLB level this season, DFA Bartolo Colon… no one will eat that contract and bring him back as emergency 6th starter and long man


There are five excellent baseball players that are doing squat right now for this team. They represent 20% of a workable 25-man that simply would be much more competitive game to game.

You bring these five guys back and they perform at their top form, and this team might have a chance some day.

However, for now, five moves based on good health and increased talent.



Now… if Syndergaard, Montero, d’Arnaud, and Centero return to Queens by the end of June… 
       
        Return Joel Carreno to the Vegan pen, DFA Giancarlo Alvarado, return Angel Cuan to B-Mets pen, resend Greg Peavey back to Vegas (one last shot), and promote Steven Matz and Gabriel Ynoa from St. Lucie to the B-Mets.

        Catching wise, promote Kevin Plawecki to Vegas (Gronauer), promote Cam Maron from St, Lucie to the B-Mets (Carillo), send Jeff Glenn from Savannah to St. Lucie (Albert Cordero) and promote either Tomas Nido or Tyler Moore from Brooklyn to Savannah.



B-Mets manager, Pedro Lopez, on reinforcements from St. Lucie –

“They had their all-star game, but I think they’re still fighting for the playoff spot. The way they’re set up in the Florida State League you play the all-star game, but then you’ve still got three more days for the half to be over. They’ve still got three more days to go. I don’t know. I haven’t heard anything yet. Everybody knows we’ve been needing some help and it hasn’t happened.”

Mack – Remember… these is also a considerable amount of time between the AA and A+ all-star games so simply calling players up to your level results in having to send some of your current roster somewhere.

Binghamton is having some problems. They currently are only one loss away from falling into third place in the eastern portion of the Eastern League.


Bobby Abreu has heated up the Mets otherwise dismal offense. Over the past month Abreu has posted a weighted on base average of .398, which is out of this world good if you do not understand wOBA. In 91 plate appearances for the Mets, Abreu has posted an OPS of .846, while being a solid right fielder. It really is crazy, but he could be the top bat at the trade deadline. The Kansas City Royals and the Detroit Tigers are the two teams that come to mind as potential destinations… maybe the Mets can fetch someone like Sean Manaea or Devon Travis for him.

Mack – Manaea was a particular favorite of mine in the 2013 Draft 9 1st Rd. – 34th overall – KC). He’s gotten off to a relatively slow professional career, not pitching at all last season, and going 2-5, 4.84 in 12 starts (48.1-IP, 67-K) at A+ ball. 6-5 lefty.

Travis is 23-yr. old 5-9 2Bman that had an outstanding year in 2013 for Detroit at first A-ball (.352) and then A+ (.350). This year, at AA, he’s hitting .279.

You know me… I’ll take Manaea. I’m a sucker for pitching,

                

25 comments:

  1. Forget playoffs. ....right now, I'm just hoping they at least win Saturday against Marlins, cause I'm gonna be there watching...........after that, ........................

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  2. Great 1 thru 5 ideas. Would never have thought of the Colon idea - intriguing.

    This team shot itself in the foot when Lagares felt a tweak and played 2 days later, and he's been out how long? Leg and ribcage muscle tweaks need at least a few calm days. The offense they've gotten in Lagares' spot has been atrocious.

    d'Arnaud should be recalled today - he is 15 for 38 (.395) with 8 extra base hits, and just TWO Ks. Enough of a groove for me.

    Speaking of prospect health, I want to see Luis Mateo healthy too - I hope he is, and will be pitching soon. He is slightly over a year after his TJ. Know anything there, Mack?

    And Mazzoni?

    Can Terry please play Campbell (.294 in sporadic plate appearances) and not use Chris Young? No chance of Young having any trade value - that $4MM he is still due is dead $$. I'd prefer Campbell before EY Jr until Lagares returns.

    Abreu for a prospect? Definitely.

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  3. I felt the same way about Colon but taking a closer look at the salaries of pitchers has changed my mind. Teams signed pitchers with .500 or losing records to bigger contracts than Colon has. If the Mets want to trade Colon during the off season it would be an 11 million dollar risk to the team receiving him, if they took on his full salary. That is not that much. If they get him in July it would be about 15 million. Again, not a large amount in this market. Colon is currently very affective and could be valuable to a contender. The risk comes with his age and weight.
    Looking at his whip and other stats. He ranks about the 60th best pitcher in Major League Baseball. 30 teams with 5 starters that puts him in the top 40%. A poor #2 starter or a good #3 starter. It is not easy to get a #2 or #3 pitcher for only $15 million without giving up a ton of prospects.
    The Mets likely wouldn't get much in return and if they didn't ask for much I think there would be takers. If they want a prospect they likely would have to take on much of his 2015 salary.

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  4. Ernest -

    Why do I feel like we're losing you.... :)

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  5. Thomas -

    I've asked a number of times about Mateo and have been told that he is in Extended Camp and has been throwing in extended games.... past that, I have no idea why he remains there.

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  6. Richard -

    I don't know about the value of Colon in a trade. Alderson does seem to have a unique ability to steal away lower level top prospects. Will they ever turn into anything? That's always the risk.

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  7. Idea number 6. Bench the .221 hitting Ruben Tejada who has had more than a year at below replacement level and PLAY WILMER FLORES.

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  8. How's that pitcher hitting 8th thing working out? Terry is clearly willing to try anything with this lineup to coax some runs out of it, except, you know, playing Flores or Campbell (or Brown) for a few days straight. The thought process behind that is clearly frustrating the hell out of the fan base. What is it, exactly? Is it personal? Is it that Terry (or someone) just has it stuck in their heads that these guys "aren't starters"? (While the Young boys ARE?)

    On the plus side, I'm beginning to think that we might actually be able to get a (low-level) high-upside prospect for Colon at the deadline. And that Abreu might net us a return as well. The problem is that I'm also starting to think that we ought to also trade DW and Murph as well and just blow the whole damn thing up. Depressing.

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  9. I'm wondering if they're afraid of "exposing" Wilmer Flores' glove too much and thus lowering his trade value (which would be less than zero since he never plays).

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  10. When D'Arnaud comes back up, he has to hit higher in the order. I have to believe that hitting lower in the order (especially this NY Met order) is contributing to his poor results.
    Give him a try in the 2nd spot of the order. Let's face it.... It can't hurt this year's playoff chances.

    Maybe the Mets can petition the MLB offices to allow them to not bat all of their position players.
    Instead the order could have:
    Granderson lead off
    D'Arnaud
    Murphy
    Wright
    Lagares (when he returns)
    Duda
    pitcher

    The other 2 batting order slots can just be skipped. Let them play the field, just not hit.
    Come on Alderson, pull some of those strings you have with the commissioner to make it happen.
    no?? okay,
    well maybe the Mets could just go ahead and forfeit the rest of this year in order to guard against any serious injuries?
    no again?? okay,
    well.... then I got nothing

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  11. Wright is untradeable, unless his play returns to 2006 - 2008 levels (pre Citi Field). Murph is another story. Shame, too, about Wright. He's probably getting to the point where he's kicking himself for believing his buddy Jeff and signing that contract without testing free agency.

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  12. Mack,
    I saw on Pravda (Metsblog) that Hefner is throwing a full bullpen Sunday. He was pitching very well last year before he got hurt. Do you think we'll see him in Queens this year, and if he looks good, what do you think we could get for him?

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  13. Don't get me started, Steve...I was on the trade Wright bandwagon before he was offered the new albatross of a contract extension with his declining Citifield results that didn't even include his horror show of 2014.

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  14. Anyone noticed how hot David Wright was when Eric Young Jr. was batting lead-off?

    Yea EYJ was hitting .220 BUT he scored 28 runs, stole 17 bases and David Wright drove him in 14 times with Murphy driving him in an additional 8 times.

    Whether you like it or not most effective Mets line-up in terms of run creation involves Eric Young leading off with Murphy and Wright behind him

    (That's the line-up TC is rolling out today so lets see if the trend continues)

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  15. Reese,

    Declining results?

    In 2012, his .306 AVG 21 HR 93 RBI 15 SB and +17.0 UZR was worth 7.4 wins above replacement level 3B and in 2013 he was having a career year before he got hurt. .307 AVG 18 HRs 63 RBIs 17 SB and a +5.0 UZR was worth 5.9 Wins in just 108 games. He was on pace for a 8.0 WAR season.

    His contract is hardly an albatross.....especially when you look around the league and see how poorly 3B is for a LOT of teams

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  16. Hopefully the law of averages will kick in and Wright will find himself (he looked good last night) and go on a tear for the rest of the year.

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  17. Reese - we're going to get through this 'trade value' shit real quick by the end of July

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  18. Richard, can't go by season-long stats. Colon has been real tough lately. He pitched like a #1 last year, and lately has been close to that.
    .
    An American league team that could keep El Colo from picking up a bat and really needs ptching to get them over the top could be real interested soon. IMO. I think as, you infer, the remaining $15 Mil, it ain't what it used to be...get us out from under the contract and get us some major prospect(s).

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  19. Steve -

    Re: Hefner -

    Let me check Extended Camp and I'll address this in the Friday Morning Report

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  20. Everybody -

    Re: David Wright

    You can't expect him to constantly carry this team with his bat. It doesn't work if no one else is in it to win it.

    Wright is playing very depressed this year. It's on his face, his swing, his stance,

    It's a horrible season for everybody but his wife who gets to cash the check.

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  21. Mack,
    Wright has finally realized he got conned

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  22. Steve -

    I have met and talked to David 5-6 times in the clubhouse or outside on the complex. He bleeds Mets.

    He's also one of those unique players that do this for the love of the game and feels he's paid very well for his services.

    I don't think there was ever a chance that he would have signed with another team.

    For me, the key word I think he feels is disappointed. He bought into the whole Sandy thing even after being dissed by Wilpon.

    He also (according to my sources) REALLY was disappointed that Drew didn't come aboard to play next to him.

    This team doesn't have many of 'his people' still on the roster.

    Sad.

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  23. Thomas
    I agree with you. I just trying to show that Colon does have value even with the weak case I used teams would still be interested. If Colon continues to pitch well to the deadline then the case is even stronger. The point is, if we don't need or want him for next year it is highly unlikely we will have to eat his contract. Barring an injury the worse case is that we deal him and get a minor prospect. Best case is that he pitches well and we trade him for a more valuable prospect but I just don't see us having to release him or putting him in the pen and eating his contract.

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  24. Mack,

    I guess that was my frustration talking. I'm probably one of Wright's biggest fans. We both were sitting at Met Park watching the Tidewater Tides in the early 90's, and later at Harbor Park watching the Norfolk Tides, and living and dying by the Mets games on our cable system on WWOR. For the short time he was at AAA, I was in the stands almost every night cheering him on. I'm sure he feels the same pain we do. That's why I think he is sorry he believed Sandy (and Jeff - his friend sold him out). I think his desire to win would have made staying with the Mets a very painful decision if he had gone to free agency. I know having to make that kind of decision would have torn me apart.

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  25. Maybe not enough was made of just letting Reyes go as a free agent at the time.

    It really seems that the poor decision to not trade or resign Reyes was a look into the Mets poor decision making and planning processes every season since.

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