For so long, many wondered if Daniel Murphy was starter quality. As a 1B and LF in 2009, Murphy didn't hit for enough power to be worth a league average with a .266 AVG, 12 HR, and poor defense that only netted him a 1.0 WAR. His hitting profile did fit at 2B though and the club tried to shift him over in 2010....but clumsy Murphy wasn't fluid around the bag and ended up getting injured and missing the whole season. Murphy returned in 2011 and produce a .320 AVG which was good enough to net him a 2.8 WAR. This proved that at least the bat was "starter" quality, he just needed a home defensively.
2012 rolls around and the front office finally decides that 2B would be his home and his bat provided the most "value" there. Unfortunately nothing changed between 2012 and 2010. Murphy was still clumsy around 2B and produced a -13.3 UZR. That coupled with the fact that he "only" hit .291 reduced his value below the starter level (2.0) as he produced a 1.3 WAR. If there's one thing we've learned about "The Irish Hammer" though, it's that he's tenacious and works hard to be the best player on the team. Murph spent the off-season working with Tim Teufel on being a better fielder and results showed in 2013 as his UZR improved to -5.3. That along with improved power and sneaky steal speed netted him a 2.9 WAR.
That season made us believe that Murphy could at least be a good starter worth 3 wins a each year and that's it. We thought we had finally seen Murph's ceiling as a Chase Utley lite type player. Well folks, never doubt the MURPH! Cause he's in-line for a career season that's not just a fluke.
First off 2014 has seen him make continued improvements defensively. He is receiving positive grades on his range for the 1st time in his career and his UZR is projected to be positive for the 1st time too. His errors vs. average 2B is improving as well and is even being weighed down by his 3 errors in the first two games of his season after coming back from his 1st child's birth. In addition to the above, according to Inside Edge Fielding, so far this season we've seen him improve his conversion rate on plays deemed "Likely" by 4% and on plays deemed "50-50" by 5% to over 66%.
Offensively, Murphy is also improving. He has taken to the team philosophy of "hunting strikes" better than anyone else on the team. His BB rate is currently a career high 8.9% while his K rate sits at 11.4% which is 1.5 pts better than his career Average. His Line Drive Rate, which is a good indicator of making Solid HARD contact, is up almost 6 percentage points! from his career average. The improved contact is showing in the power too as his SLG has gone up slightly from .403 to .419 as more 2B's turn into HR's thanks to his improving HR/fly-ball rate.
Overall the offense and defensive improvements have made him worth 2.2 Wins above replacement level 2B ALREADY this season and it puts him on pace to finish the year at 3.5 WAR according to Zips. In fact only 3 2B have added more value than Murphy this season (Brian Dozier, Chase Utley, and Ian Kinsler). Those same 3 guys plus Robinson Cano are the only 2B responsible for "creating" more runs than Murphy too.
At only age 29, Murphy still has probably 3-4 solid seasons left in his prime and, me personally, the Mets would be wise to lock him up to a contract extension that would control his cost and keep him as the "second in command" in the clubhouse for years to come.
There's not a chance in hell that Murphy would sign an extension. He's out the door after next year, or sooner, if the FO wants anything for him besides a draft pick. If Sandy has shifted his focus to 2016, Flores or Tejada could be our 2B next year. He may use Murph to get our SS.
ReplyDelete@Steve from Norfolk
ReplyDeleteI have to disagree with you here....Murphy is the epitome of Sandy's organizational offensive goal of "hunting strikes" and has repeatedly stated on air how much Murphy means to this team.
Hey Chris and Steve, I'll let you debate that one.
ReplyDeleteBut if they moved Murphy and did not go outside to replace him, Steve, how could they (or any) team consider Tejada at 2B? What a drop off from Murphy. I'd consider other in-house alternatives first (Muno, who has 8HRs in 200 at bats in AAA with a rising .350 on base, Reynolds, or, if ready, Herrera).
@Tom
ReplyDeleteIF they shipped off Murphy.....A) They would get a nice haul for him....and B) Most likely in-house alternative to start is Muno, Tejada, or Flores with Herrera being down the road.
Chris,
ReplyDeleteI'm just saying, No way Murph signs an extension. I believe what Mack says about Dilson Herrera being groomed to take over 2B in 2016. If Murph is going to be gone anyway, it makes sense to trade him and get more for him than a draft pick. I'd hate to see him go - he's our best, most consistent hitter. But, he'd be worth a good SS. We've got other 2B.
Chris,
ReplyDeleteDon't forget EY Jr. I'd say he's the most likely replacement at 2B. He's still young enough to be part of the future, if Herrera doesn't cut it.
He is probably the best trade chip the team has and knowing how "cost conscious" i.e. cheap this franchise is, they won't want to pony up the $$$ to keep him.
ReplyDeleteIf Terry Collins regularly plays Ruben (Below Replacement Level) Tejada over Wilmer Flores, then you KNOW for sure Eric Young would get the nod at 2B.
ReplyDeleteSolve the Collins problem and many other things will fall into place nicely.