Morning Report – July 24th – Cargo, September Pitchers, Future Planning, Thor

                               

I’m being told that the Mets are looking closely in the direction of Colorado Rockies outfielder Carlos Gonzales.

The 28-year old’s numbers are way down this year (through Monday: 

.253/.302/.452/.754, 217-AB, 9-HR, 34-RBI), hampered by a finger injury that placed him on the disabled list.

A major hang-up to any deal with the Mets would be the remaining salary committed to CarGo in his existing contract: $16.429mil/2015, $17.429/mil/2016, $20,429mil/2017, no team option. A considerable portion of this would have to be eaten by Colorado, something they might not have to do if they do a deal with another team.

My contact in the Colorado media says that Troy Tulowitzki is ‘going nowhere’ and, like David Wright, is the face of the franchise, but the Rockies will be sellers this/next week and a Gonzalez deal to the Mets for ‘primarily young pitching’ is ‘doable’.

For the Mets, CarGo would solve the outfield problem until prospects like Michael Conforto and Brandon Nimmo developed. 

(This isn’t just the kind of deal a team would consider if they were trying to make the playoffs this year… there are only so many outfielders out there with this kind of talent that become available to other teams.)

Jeremy Hefner is now up to three inning rehab outings… John Lannan seems to have become part of the St. Lucie rotation (shaking head) and Giancarlo Alvarado remains in the Las Vegas rotation (shaking head violently); however, there may be a master plan here we’re all overlooking.

There is a good chance that a deal could come down before the trading deadline that included the loss of an established Mets starter. Moreover, the Mets are going to have to start limiting the innings (and eventually shut down a few) of the young pitchers in the organization.

All three of the above mentioned pitchers could wind up in Flushing in September helping the Mets secure a decent draft pick.

John Looby

            Hey Mack, Without taking into account the Mets current financial status, when do you begin to start factoring in prospects on the major league roster. At what point do they influence what you would "go out and get" today.

For example, with Nimmo and Conforto projected to be up around 2016, would you disregard that when looking at an extra outfield or do you take this into consideration?

Rosario and Cecchini would appear to be years away. If you were looking at acquiring a new SS, do you even factor these two into your decision making?

I suppose another consideration is Murphy and Herrera. When would you start to get a feel that Herrera is the real thing? How does this affect Murphy?

Looking forward to your thoughts. Regards, John.

            Mack: Hey John.

            Frankly, I don’t think this ever comes into play

Every team, and their fans, have nightmare stories about ‘can’t miss’ prospects. Remember ‘Generation K’? We weren’t going to need a starter for a decade.

What does come into play is who will take over from an aging player who has diminished skills.

Regarding Nimmo and Conforto (and Herrera), the main test is AA-ball. The players call this ‘the prospect league’. This is the bump in the road that many so called ‘can’t miss’ A-ball players can’t either dominate in or get past. I could write hours about countless ex-Mets we’ve never heard of again. Let’s just call it the Brad Holt League.

Once a certain amount of success is reached here (like what Herrera is doing now) you can begin to project his ‘ETA’. In Herrera’s case, conservatively it will be opening day 2016, but his position is still in question (my guess he’s comes up a shortstop).

I will say this… if you want to firm up the Mets middle infield for the next 4-5 years, then you sign the guy you just sent to the all-star game, He wants to stay, he’s take the home town discount, how difficult can this be?

This team makes no sense to me sometimes.

  

Noah Syndergaard on his Tuesday night outing –

            "For the most part, I attacked hitters. I was trying to be a little unpredictable. I threw quite a bit of my curveball. I threw some pretty good curveballs, and some ended up out of the strike zone. Even though it wasn't for a strike, it showed the hitter I wasn't afraid to throw a breaking pitch in certain counts. My last outing, I thought I had some really good stuff, some of the best I had all year, but I fell behind in the count and continued to throw fastballs. Even though I didn't really give up a lot of hard contact, they just found contact.  That's been my biggest problem all year, I've been a little fastball-happy. Hitters up here, once they've seen enough fastballs in an at-bat, they can make you pay. Tonight, I was able to get out of my comfort zone a little bit. When I fall behind in counts, I've been throwing way too many fastballs because that's the pitch I feel the most confidence in. I threw some good changeups in key situations that got me a groundout or a swing and a miss."

Mack – This is what I try to point out all year. You simply can’t survive, air or no air, at the AA or AAA level, with only one pitch. If that’s the only pitch that can hit the zone, the batters at this level are too talented to not pick this up and eat you for dinner.

Minor Moves -

For those of you that live in NYC and want to see Michael Conforto play this year… you better hurry… Las Vegas OF Cesar Puello is posting the best K:BB rate of his career and is batting .321/.387/.607 since coming off the DL… from Chris/tpgMets: Mets rookies by non-pitching fWAR (min 20 PA): 1) d'Arnaud 0.6, 2) deGrom 0.4, 2) Campbell 0.4, 4) Flores 0.3, 5) den Dekker 0.1, 6) Centeno -0.1… Kingsport RF Wuilmer Becerra is starting to show some of the pop he was projected to develop when the Mets got Toronto to toss him in on the R.A. Dickey deal. He hit his 5^th HR in 83-AB raising his slugging percentage to .554, 2^nd in the league… Kingsport SP Blake Taylor changed his changeup from a 2-seamer to a 4-seamer and helped produce a 6.0-IP, 1-H outing. "I just learned the changeup in the middle of this week," Taylor said. "I mostly throw four-seam fastballs, so it's easier, has the same spin as the fastball. … The looks to the hitter, it makes it more similar. That's why it worked tonight."…