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7/24/14

Stephen Guilbert- "Shortstoptions- Carlos Correa and Francisco Lindor: The Unattainable"

As you might expect from the title, the Mets have extremely low odds of acquiring either of the two prospects in this article. They should be thinking this way, though, and doing whatever they can to convince those teams to give up their star shortstop prospect for other pieces (like pitching).

1.) Carlos Correa
Houston Astros shortstop Carlos Correa and his ridiculous arm strength. 

I have been a huge fan of Correa since he was 17 years old and wowing scouts in Puerto Rico the year leading up to the 2012 amateur draft. I was one of the few who correctly predicted Correa would go 1-1 to the Astros and I called him the best player on the board. I might have to revise that due to Byron Buxton's emergence as a complete boss but I believe in Correa. I still cannot get over how refined and dominant all seven skills are, especially his footwork and defense for someone of his size. He will eventually hit for a lot more power as well and I do not doubt he will be the best overall shortstop in baseball for a number of years.

The problem: The Astros have absolutely no reason to trade him. They're currently running Marwin Gonzalez (who?) at short and there are no other prospects in the system that look like major league shortstops. The closest is Nolan Fontana but I have him penciled in as a utility infielder and glove specialist. He's not Correa. In fact, no one is. This is a guy who I could see hitting 30 home runs, stealing 20 bases, hitting at or near the top of an order, manufacture runs, all the while playing defense that will win him multiple gold gloves (unless he always plays second fiddle to a guy named Lindor but more on him later). He will also show off incredible arm strength and one that is accurate as well.

How do the Mets get him: The only way the Mets could possibly land this guy is by convincing the Astros that their upper-level pitching will never be enough to compete in the AL West. You would have to give up Wheeler+ to get this guy but I like that idea a heck of a lot better than giving up Wheeler to get someone like Starlin Castro. If you are going to go for a prospect, this is the guy you spend your bullets to get. Him or…

2.) Francisco Lindor
Indians shortstop Francisco Lindor might be the best defensive minor league shortstop I have ever seen. 

If Correa is my pick to be the next Alex Rodriguez (minus the enhancements), Lindor is my pick to be the next Omar Vizquel. If you read my post yesterday, you will see that I am rightfully obsessed with slating as good a defender as I can at shortstop. There might be none better in professional baseball right now than Francisco Lindor. Andrelton Simmons holds the highest respect for me as a defender and I think Lindor could take him play for play. That is the skill he possess with his glove.

Offensively, he is no slouch either. He has a nice bit of speed, will hit somewhere between .260 and .280, a bit of OBP to make him a legitimate and effective leadoff hitter, and he'll smack a few doubles and a couple homers as well. Needless to say, he will not hurt you offensively. I predict he will be a 110 RC+ guy. So no, it's not Tulo and it's not Correa, but 110+ for a guy who will save as many runs as he will throughout the year and you have one of the best shortstops in baseball.

The problem: They love him in Cleveland. They targeted him in the draft when I think Lindor was set to fall further than he should and they have been loving him every step of his minor league career. There has never been a problem with this kid--on the field or off. He has been anointed as the shortstop of the future in Cleveland and it will take a lot to get him. The fan base will be very upset if he is moved.

How do the Mets get him: Unlike Houston, Cleveland has another shortstop in the system worth keeping in incumbent Asdrubal Cabrera, who is well-liked by the fan base and ownership. He has power and speed and has been an important and reliable piece for the Indians' turnaround over the past few seasons. If the Indians think they can contend and make a World Series run in 2014, as well as sign Cabrera to an extension, Lindor could be Cleveland's version of Addison Russell. If the Mets were to offer the Indians Zack Wheeler, or perhaps both Colon and Gee (or Niese) to pry Lindor away, a team desperate for starting pitching might have to consider that as a viable option. The Indians are desperate for pitching.

It is a long shot, but Alderson should call GM Mark Shapiro over the next two weeks to talk about a SS-for-SP swap.
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While these prospects are long shots, I like them both a lot better than Javier Baez. Correa is untouchable. Lindor is close to untouchable but Cleveland is in a much different situation and one that could open the door for a move. Stay tuned.

Scorecard:

Castro- No.
Baez- Yes, but not for SS.
Tulo- Not going anywhere.
Hanley- Yes, but huge price tag plus loss of draft pick.
Hardy- Priced out.
Lowrie- Yes, but watch price and arbitration.
Other FAs- No.
Correa- Untouchable.
Lindor- Probably untouchable but hell yes if he's not.


Next up I will profile internal options minus Ruben Tejada then, finally, Ruben himself to conclude "Shortstoptions".

-SG

3 comments:

  1. They're fine with Ruben "Takes a Licking and Keeps on Ticking" Tejada. Why else do they have no backup SS on the roster and no plans to provide one while Honus Tejada gets a concussion DL stint as a precaution?

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  2. Also, look at Chris Taylor of Seattle. While Brad Miller and Nick Franklin get the headlines, Taylor has quietly put up high average, high SB numbers in his minor league career. He's hit .320 in aggregate and stolen as many as 38 in a season. THAT may be who you want to target as he's in AAA right now.

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  3. Nice job, Steve. Look forward to your thoughts on Mr. Dilson tomorrow as one of the internal options. And how you think Amed Rosario in 3 years might compare to Correa and Lindor.

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