It
was late Tuesday evening when Bob
Gregory left
one of the most intelligent paragraphs I’ve seen written on this site. It came
as a comment on my Morning Report that day and it said:
Mack, you
have come a long way in the bring-in-the-fences question. It does seem like an
acceptable option if the team is limited to a lower budget and resistant to
trading young players. Also in a statistics driven league, all of your
offensive players suddenly become more valuable to other teams as trade
targets. Heck, Granderson's contract would not look so costly if he could
benefit from Yankees stadium-like shorter dimensions.
I
have gone full circle on this because all I now want to do is develop an
offense be it real or pseudo. Winning games is one thing, but the baseball
world has turned WAR-BABIP-FIP crazy and I want some of it too.
Have
you ever watched the MLB channel on cable and they are telling how many home
runs Nelson Cruz has this season? Do they point
out that 14 were hit is stadiums with shorter fences? Hell no.
Just
add around six more rows in front of both the right and left field. Make them
straight rows with seats next to seats or tables and chairs. Whatever. Just
lower the home run line on the front end around six inches lower than the last
renovation and target the change based on lowering the distance to the stands.
20
feet? 30 feet? Let’s not go crazy. We have all this shit on
tape now and we can tell you where every ball was hit by every Met hitter. You
do the work and you can figure out the subtle changes needed without putting
the fences just behind the second base bags.
Let’s
build a new 2015 team using the same 2015 baseball players but adjust this
stadium to their ability. The gaps will still be there for the gap hitters, but
the shifts have created more demand to get this ball moving toward the
LaGuardia runways.
I
love it Bob.
I’m
sort of getting sick of discussing who is going to play shortstop next year for
the Mets, so I thought I’d move on to a subject only Tom Brennan and I can love… grading out
prospects..
Obviously,
there are two types of players to report on, everyday players and pitchers.
Each has their own categories that in compass all of the tools that make a
prospect. They, and the way they are graded are:
Batting
– sums up the offensive skill set via projected batting average. It is further
broken down into 1) plate discipline, 2) bat control (ability to hit different
pitches), and 3) tools (which includes bat speed). Each should be graded on a
20-80 scale
General
assumptions in minor league baseball scouting –every hitter in the minor
leagues is presently a 20 hitter, expect for a handful of power hitting AA and
AAA hitters (see, I told you not to try and grade the kids out too early…
they’re hitting against fringe 45 pitchers (see later).
The
BA scales all scouts use is .270 is a 55, .260 is a 50, .250 is a 45… etc.
OBP
- .330 is a 55, .320 is a 50, .310 is a 45…
Power
– split it into two grades:
1. Raw – raw power is how far you
can hit the ball
2. Game – home may HRs you should
be expected to hit in a season
50 – 15-18/HR… 55 –
18-21/HR… 60 – 22-25/HR…
Speed
– Amateur players are judged by their recorded 60 time
Pro players use the time ran from
home to first base
Arm
Grades – most amateur players star making a 0.0 UZR/average shortstop, or a
center fielder has a 55 grade fielder because that’s where most start.
Examples – HS SS is
45/55/defender – he’ll move off that position and you need to check the scouts
notes to see where the scout is recommending he will eventually move… a
50/55/defensive shortstop in HS is being scouted (and reported) that he most
probably will stick at short… a 55/60 would make him above average (with a UZP
up to 5.0)
Let’s
move on to pitching.
All pitchers are graded
on the 20-80 level for sub-big league players
#45” is fringy
“50+” is
solid-average (the vast majority of pitchers in minor league baseball)
Fastballs – three
grades
1. Velocity
a. 90-91: 50, 92: 55, 93: 60… etc.
2. Movement
a. Fair: 50, Good: 55, Excellent:
60
3. Command
a. Same as movement
Off-speed
pitches –
A 60 or better is for a
‘swing-and-miss pitch’
Two 60 pitchers a 50 pitch, and 50
command, is a #3 starter
***NEVER
scout command or swing-and-miss stuff from a minor league stat line… it’s a
waste of everybody’s time
Thank you to Kiley
M
What
makes the Mets unique is also what has made them lousy for nearly a decade:
they are an extension and reflection of their owners, both in terms of the
team's money problems logically flowing from those of the Wilpons' and in the
way that the promising, intermittently joyous team that's developing in Queens
is doing so amid an ambient vibe of blustering, blowhardy pissiness. Of course
the baseball is more fun than the non-baseball -- that is always true. But
what's not fun about the Mets comes so clearly from the issues -- the
personality, self-created and self-denied money problems and general towering
competence issues -- of the owners. http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2014/8/19/6003707/matt-harvey-mets-wilpons
I keep reprinting
paragraphs from articles that tear into the Wilpons so all of you continue to
see how your favorite team, and its owner, is represented to all of baseball.
This was a story on
Matt Harvey, but the author couldn’t help
himself by throwing in this filth about the owners. Remember… free agents have
a choice who they play for and most want nothing to do with this team and their
front office.
And
lastly…
Andy Martino chimed in
on the possibility of a Mets-Cubs trade (http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/baseballinsider/final-word-big-ny-mets-chicago-cubs-trade-big-loss-yankees-blog-entry-1.1910028)
He says it would be a
no-go from both clubs because each one would want too much from the other.
See? That’s what I said
(was it) yesterday. No one can just make a deal anymore that’s good for both
clubs. Someone always has to win.
I don’t know where this
game is going. All 30 teams only have a 25-man squad so you can only field so
many ‘prospects’, especially starters (5).
In the case of the Cubs,
how many middle infielders can play a baseball game at the same time?
Martino speculates that
Mets would probably be okay with sending SP Zack
Wheeler and
SS/2B Wilmer Flores to the Cubs for SS Starlin Castro, but Chicago would want
someone like Jacob
deGrom or Noah Syndergaard thrown in also.
See, this is where the
whole trading process goes out the door and everyone is left to fielding a team
from their own system… which is fine… but, wouldn’t this whole process be much
easier if the team with a shit load of talented, young starters traded one to
the team with a shitload of young, talented middle infielders?
Doesn’t both teams
benefit by this?
Donation
Drive (drive end 8-30) –
Received so far – $ 400.00
Goal - $1,400.00 - $1,000.00 to go
The donation
drive is moving in the right direction and I’m trying not to make the process
annoying. God Bless you for your consideration.
Bring in those fences! Get radical. I'll buy a ticket package if they do it right. More $ for the wilpons.
ReplyDeleteGreat stuff on grading prospects, Mack.
I fon't have 20/20 vision, but I would have graded out a 20/20/20 prospect!
Owners are a big negative to prospective free agents, no doubt. And Mets really "pay" for it there. By, for instance, overpaying a lot for free agents and not getting the elite ones.
They are talking about a Cuban shortstop, but the only Cuban I want is Mark Cuban to take over our damn team!!!!
ReplyDeleteMack,
ReplyDeleteI've said it before, and I'll probably say it again. Bring in the fences 20 feet from the LF foulpole to the back end of the Mo Zone, and you are very close to Shea Stadium dimensions. That fits the six rows of seats you mentioned. Shea was supposed to have had the dimensions to make it a pitchers park, so what is Citi Field, Delaware? It's got to be at least 2 zip codes.
Go ahead and pile on the Wilpons, I am certainly not going to defend them, but at least be accurate in your characterizations. The Mets have fallen on hard times since 2009 and the three prior to that, they were either 1st or 2nd place with a couple of epic on field meltdowns. They won 89 games in 2008 and dropped out of playoffs on the last day when Glavine got shelled, but it was the last 20 games that doomed them. So in reality, it has been five years, not a decade in the wilderness and it is fair to say that 2009 and 2010 were a result of a rash of injuries, not a lack of payroll which was $143M in 2009 and $127M in 2010, so the Wilponzi stuff didn't start until 2011 when they slashed it down. so from an owner's standpoint, they did pony up big market money until the last three years. Now it can be argued that the money wasn't well spent, but it is simply not accurate to describe their failure as nearly a decade old. Maybe it was their fault for hiring Omar, but they gave him the budget to sign one big FA every year and maybe it was their fault for hiring Sandy and then handcuffing him with payroll constraints, but they are now a team returning to relevance and look to be competitive in the coming years. I don't personally like either Jeff or Fred, but if you are going to take shots at them, embellishing history seems like a surefire way to undermine your own credibility
ReplyDeleteZozo
ReplyDeleteGood one. Thanks for the laugh.
Maybe that's why Seinfeld and Maher have rooting interest in the Mets -- for the laughs.
ReplyDeleteLooking forward. .....
ReplyDeleteIf the Mets are looking at 2-3 more years for the Herrara's, Nimmo's, Matz's, etc to make their way to the majors as being competitive. ....
what are the Mets losing on the way?
Is Murphy gone?
Wright and Granderson are two years further along what some have characterized as their declining years.
Duda will be in his 30's (right? )
Will some of the current pitchers decline? Injured? Become too costly?
Just as Sir Anonymous mentioned above about accurately portraying the last few years. ...
the future needs to be looked at in context as a whole with potential positive & negative.
I don't think the Mets are looking at 2-3 years before being playoff competitive. Frankly, beginning with that 8-2 run before the all-star break, they have been.
ReplyDelete2015 will fill in a few more organizational options/pieces regardless if outsiders are brought it... Plawecki, Reynolds, Syndergaard, Montero, Verrett, Bowman...
The Mets should wind up with a solid and (at least) 6 deep healthy rotation.
Then... come mid-2015... Nimmo could be slotted into LF and Herrera onto 2B or SS.
It will get better... not perfect, but better.
I have posted before and will stick to it: Keep the Crown Jewels for now, work them through the inning limits next year (Mack is right, the Mets have one more developmental year) and trade the following players: Colon, Niese, Gee and Murphy for what should be decent upper level talent. Have Herrara or a place setter replace Murphy, the young arms replace the Vets. This would clear in excess of $30M in payroll for acquisition of Justin Upton (Stanton lite, still big bucks, but no talent drain) and go for a volume package to see if you can pry away Profar from the Rangers. Not the typical crap of secondary pieces, but maybe something like Gee (or Niese) Meija, Nimmo and Plawecki. The logic is not top prospect for top prospect, but rather several pieces (there are others like Rosario or Molina, etc) that could hedge against a flop for the Rangers. The Mets have the inventory to put together multiple good players for one good piece like Profar. I don't know what pieces the Rangers would take, but I would try for a volume approach to get one top piece. They might not bite, but if you can fill enough holes for them (and who knows what you get back from the Vet trades) the Mets could fill the SS and LF holes (in a big way) keep the Crown Jewels and heaven forbid, have a LOWER payroll. Sandy may be just creative enough to overwhelm the Rangers, but even if they get Upton, 2016 is a year to compete and the young bucks don't start to really cost money until 2017, when Grandy is ready to come off the books. just a thought
DeleteAnon - Agree with you on all counts. When I read the SBNation
ReplyDeletequote I had the same reaction.
I will never be a Wilpon apologist, but let's not rewrite history to make a point.
Nice catch.
LGM
Sounds good.. ....2016.
ReplyDeleteTwo more years.
Wait a minute.
Weren't we waiting the last few years for 2014?
And what about Alderson's tenure as GM would point towards him engaging in a pursuit of a top- line free agent like Upton?
Now packaging multiple 2nd tier prospects in a trade for a player like Profar? That I can see Alderson doing. It fits his tendency to having to win the trade and not giving up top-line prospects.
But
ReplyDeletethere's really no saying if another team like Texas would want to engage in such a deal with Alderson.
Given Alderson's proven strength, having a "hot commodity" that another team wants and is willing to over spend for, the Mets need more "hot commodities" that are not top prospects he is reluctant to trade.
so......
here we are back at the "moving the fences in" approach. Raise stats of good players to make them more wanted by other teams. Offense is at a premium now pitching is more prevalent around the league.
OK, but moving the fences in will also impact our team in a negative way! For a club based on a strong pitching staff, shorter fences would reduce their effectiveness (in theory).
ReplyDeleteTwo other caveats.......if that proposal was sound, the Mets should tear the cover off the ball on the road (nope) and our opponents would struggle at Citi Field (nope).
It is simpler then field dimensions.....we just lack offensive talent at this point in the rebuild.