THE SUNDAY SCOOP: DUDA AND LOWER MINORS TOP 20 UPDATE by Tom Brennan

THE SUNDAY SCOOP by Tom Brennan

DUDA UPDATE: In the spring, I saw Duda as the better pure hitter than Ike.  I saw Lucas as a guy who would offensively benefit from getting out of left field, with steady play at 1B, and being on a platoon basis to avoid average-sagging lefties.

I felt he also just needed to get more aggressive early in counts to unleash the inner beast.  The stats bore that out, and the stats don’t lie.  Awesome when his at bats end with 0 or 1 strike, terrible when he gets to 2 strikes.  Just don’t go there. 

Back in June, I wrote “Duda (thru June 16) had been to the plate 230 times.  When his at bat ends on the first pitch or on 1-0, he is amazing, frankly: 15 for 31 (.484), 3 doubles, 5 HR, and 12 RBIs.  Sweet. The trouble is, that is only about 13% of his at bats.  The other 87%?  Around .200…not so sweet.” 

Let’s roll that forward to the end of July – Lucas has now been to the plate 374 times, and since then has raised that very low mid-June 13% rate to nearly 16%, so since that point in June, he has basically raised his rate from 13% to 19% - much better. What does he do in those counts YTD?  I THOUGHT you’d want to know – still awesome: 25 for 58, with 8 HRs and 22 RBIs.  It works for him.  BECAUSE HE’S REALLY A DARNED GOOD HITTER – when he swings in favorable counts.   Which he’s doing a lot more now.

In fact, when his at bats end when he has gotten to 2 strikes, still pretty ugly: .170/.279/.301 in 204 plate appearances, with just 16 RBIs.   The good news: he really gets it now, he’s addressed it, and the league is in (big?) trouble because of it.

I also noticed when I attended a game this past week, I saw a relaxed and quietly confident guy.  No longer insecure.  As I watched him taking a lead off 1B next to Ryan Howard, another giant of a man, it started me thinking: could we have a Boog Powell or even a Ryan Howard circa 2008 on our hands soon?  Let’s hope so, and may Lucas carry this team to places only Sandy expected it to go. 

UPDATE: MINOR LEAGUERS FROM DEEP DOWN UNDER SEGMENT:

The lower minor leagues' teams (Brooklyn, the Mets’ Short Season A ball team, and rookie teams Kingsport and the Gulf Coast Mets) will have each played 40 to 50 games by the time you read this. 

A few weeks ago, when I first evaluated those 3 teams to come up with a 20 top prospects list, I weighted players' draft and international signing levels in making my decisions, and also considered what was then a very limited window of season-to-date performance glimpses, as they only started playing in mid-June.  In those few games, a player could have been briefly hot to start his season and made the list.  And in a case like top draft pick Michael Conforto, he hadn't even played a game yet a few weeks back.

But those players’ performance track records since then have lengthened.  And their respective performances impact whether guys drop from my initial mid-July Top 20 list or deservedly get added to the list.

Performance may not be a true indicator of presence on the list, as Mack so astutely pointed out recently.  Maybe teams are asking a guy not to play using his very best assets, like a superior fastball as much, but perhaps having him throw more curve balls in games to develop it, or a hitter is trying out a changed stance or is instructed to learn to hit more balls the other way. Those sorts of things to address weaknesses can hurt players’ short-term performance, but result in them being better prepared for the higher, more difficult baseball levels that lie further ahead. 

Also, some guys in Brooklyn could be 24 already vs. other guys being just 18, and the 24 year old had better perform better – expectations are higher.  That said, I will focus significantly on performance in these updated ratings.

I used an A-B-C rating for the listed players (essentially A = best; B = close to A; C = the remaining best before all the rest).   I started two weeks ago with 5 A’s, 5 B’s, and 10 C’s, but there is no science to those quantities – 20 A’s would be awesome.  May the A group grow ever larger.

Based on the last few weeks' performance, I may bump a red hot hitter from a C up to a B or A.  Conforto, due to his having not played, was rated a B last time I wrote about these guys, with full expectation that once he played, he'd bump up to an A rating quickly.  He has done as anticipated - extremely well, .409 through Wednesday - and so he has been bumped to an A, a perch he’s unlikely to descend from. Ever!

Wuilmer Becerra was hitting a low power .226 through July 12, right around the time of my rankings.  I wanted more.  He obliged.  In fact, the 3^rd cog in the Dickey trade exploded since, to the tune of 25 for 59 (.424) with 4 doubles and 4 HRs, so he jumps from not even being on the original list to an A.   High performance seems to be catching up to his high projected ceiling. 

Collectively, I want to add, these A, B, and C players are doing most of the heavy lifting that has these teams at around .500 (61-59) combined through Wednesday’s games.  One thing missing from these lists so far is a big homer bat – I am looking for volunteers from these 3 teams (Conforto? Becerra?) to be the long ball guy everyone talks about.

So, here are my:

UPDATED LIST OF TOP 20 GREATS

I've gone from 5 "A" guys to 8, a very positive development:

A TEAM

1.    Marcos Molina - Bklyn - pitching great.  Hits 96.  What’s not to like.

2.   Michael Conforto - Bklyn - resident hitting machine. Fuggedabotit.

3.   Corey Oswalt - Bklyn - still tossing strong.

4.   Blake Taylor - Kingsport - a little hiccup in one start after his promo from GCL, but this Ike Booty looks like treasure.

5.   Jhoan Urena - Bklyn - still stroking hits with authority. Nice.

6.   Wuilmer Becerra - Kingsport - the man that I proclaim to be the “human cyborg” for his unearthly recent hot streak has had hits flying off his bat since mid-July.

7.   Eudor Garcia - Kingsport - hits, period.  Oh, did I add he hits?

8.   Martirez Arias - Kingsport - awesome pitching stats; check the Macks Mets main web page sidebar to see for yourself.

B TEAM 

9.     Michael Katz - Bklyn - was starting to slump a bit and K more.  Let's leave him as a B for now.

10.  Kelly Seacrest - Bklyn - 20 Ks in 13 innings - sweet. Strikeout pitchers preserve bats and balls from contact and thus help protect the environment.

11.   Brad Wieck - Bklyn - running neck-and-neck with his teammate Ryan..err..Kelly Seacrest. Two bullpen stalwarts.

12.  John Mora - GC Mets - he slumped from .400 two weeks ago to .316, but I can't argue with John .316, so he remains a B this week.

C TEAM

13.    Oswald Caraballo - Kingsport - slumped off the pace of 2 weeks ago, but still hitting.

14.    Luis Guillorme - Kingsport – young glove man has 10 errors and bat also cooled, so we'll see if he remains a C going forward.

15.    Adrian Almeida - GC Mets - high Ks, but also high BBs.  Will his control improve?  Needs to in order to stay on the list.

16.    Luis Ortega - Kingsport - he was lethally hot 2 weeks back and cooled a lot since.  We want another hot streak, Luis.  The eyes of NY are upon you.

17.    David Roseboom - Kingsport (I could not choose between David and Ty Williams - Kingsport, both of whom have been strong in relief. So I went alphabetically this week in nabbing David, but if Ty outshines David next week, it will be his turn to shine). 

18.    Dash Winningham - showing signs that a hitting spurt is coming, as he is up to .238, so Dash remains on the list for another week. I wonder if his real first name is Wilmer…that would have a nice ring, and we need many Wilmers.

19.    Kevin Canelon - GC Mets - pitching really well in relief so far.   New to the list, he is chucking nicely, as noted below.

20.   Arnaldo Berrios - GC Mets - hitting really well in somewhat limited at bats.  Every top 20 list needs a guy named Arnaldo – that name has such a nice ring to it. Ar-NAL-do! An announcer’s dream.

TOP 20 ADDITIONS SINCE MY FIRST (JULY 13-16) RANKING:

·       Wuilmer Becerra, from off the list entirely two weeks ago to an “A”, for reasons noted above.

·       Kevin Canelon, who’s tossing some excellent relief in the GCL (8 games, 15 innings, 8 hits, 17 Ks, 2 earned runs).

·       David Roseboom (1.98, 14 innings, 12 hits, 15 Ks) replacing Ty Badamo, who has pitched well, but just not quite as well as David.

·       Arnaldo Berrios, as explained heretofore.

TOP 20 LIST DELETIONS OF NOTE:

Ty Badamo, still pitching well, as noted above, but bumped because some comrades in arms are smoking hot and bumped him, and Brandon Brosher, who looked like he might be the top power hitter out of these 3 teams after homering in 4 straight dingers in June but is out indefinitely with a torn ACL.  I was torn, too, to have to take him off.

GUYS WHO UPGRADED SINCE MY MID JULY RANKING:

Eudor Garcia, our 2014 3rd round selection - from B to A.  Mr. Garcia started slowly with a .250/.354/.321 slash when I first ranked him.  Now, the Kingsport 3B is up to .301/.360/.372.  They say he can rake, and the rake is starting to scoop up hits.  I only like raking when it involves Mets’ hitters.  And Martirez Arias?  Like I said above, some sweet pitching so far from Mr. Arias.

OTHER GUYS NOT ON THE TOP 20 LIST BUT GETTING CLOSE: 

·       Milton Ramos, a 4th round pick in 2014, struggled out of the pro starting gate to the tune of 3 for 26 in June.  In July, the tide is turning as he was 15 for 60 with 13 RBIs at last look.  So he’s gotten closer to making the list, but being just barely over .200 for the season keeps him off it for now.

·       Octavio Acosta is tossing at Brooklyn as well stat-wise as Corey Oswalt – I’d like to see the 24 year old (today – happy birthday) run at a high rate for a bit more to show he belongs on the Top 20 list.  Older guys competing against younger dudes need to outshine to make the list.

·       Emmanuel Zabala - GC Mets - he's hitting .307 in 32 games and saying, "what about me?" He’s on the cusp of getting on the list.

So, appreciate your thoughts. 

Keep watching the sidebar for updated progress….and...

Have a GREAT day!