Morning Report – September 23 – Jenrry Mejia, Jeurys Famila, Dilson Herrera, Curtis Granderson, Boston Red Sox

Mets/Braves: Jenrry Mejia earned his 27th save today against the Braves by continuing to elevate his elite career groundball rate. B.J. Upton flew out, but Simmons, Doumit and Pena all hit grounders (out, out and a single to center respectively). Of the 31 relievers with more than 10 saves, Mejia has the 16th best contact rate (better than McGee, Street, Papelbon, Rodney, Cishek and Perkins) and 8th best grounder rate. The 3.81 ERA/1.52 WHIP is uggly, but the .341 BABIP will certainly regress. The big complaint is the command, but he’s only 24 (the youngest of these 31 RP). I can see his swinging-strike rate and K% jumping about 2% next year, which would put him in Fernando Rodney surface stats territory (2.70 ERA/1.34 WHIP), but BABIP regression and a great groundball rate could keep the WHIP down.  I think he’s earned the role going into next year and the Mets probably won’t toy with him starting again based on their all-of-a-sudden depth assuming health. http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/bullpen-report-september-20-2014/

Mack – As I have said numerous times, it’s nice to see what the outsider experts think about our players.

I’m still a believer that the incumbent wins in a situation like this (Bobby Parnell), but Mejia is an emotional kind of guy that only signed off on going to the pen because he was going to be the closer. Take that away from him and I’m not that sure how effective he would be.

Jeurys Familia will not play winter ball in the Dominican Republic this winter, he said. With 73 appearances already to his record this season, the Mets reliever needs the rest. The decision will make Terry Collins and the Mets happy. After Familia reached uncharted territory this season, the manager is hoping that Familia can come to spring training next season in top form. http://www.nj.com/mets/index.ssf/2014/09/mets_hoping_jeurys_familia_can_be_right_for_spring_training.html

                  Mack. Good. He’s pitched enough this year.

I didn’t realize this guy was in that many games, though it shouldn’t come as a surprise since so many Mets starters hit the 100 pitch count in their 6^th inning.

I sure wish there was a 26-man limit because the Mets really need to carry an additional member of the peon.

Adam Rubin –

With Dilson Herrera injured, Wilfredo Tovar will join the Mets in D.C. Tovar is already on the 40-man roster

Mack – Interesting. This has nothing to do with the ability of Matt Reynolds. It’s all about the fact that Tovar is already on the 40-man.

Additionally, Herrera was the first Met to announce that he will be playing winter ball in the Dominican (Licey). TC backed up that statement with:

"In winter ball, it's not about developing. It's about winning. You go down there, you better be ready to perform, and perform at a big level. And I think it's good for a young player to go down there like Dilson, because it's a great league, especially if you play long enough down there where the stars start to come out in December. You can face some pretty good competition. And I think the better competition you play, the better you're going to become."

According to Herrera, he will only play winter ball for one month. He misses his family… it looks like the Mets are investing long term in Herrera.

My initial thought from watching Curtis Granderson play daily was that he is striking out at a much higher rate. In fact, his K% is lower than it was in 2011 and 2012, and on par with what it was in 2010. And here is where we come to his HR/FB. Although Granderson is hitting about the same FB%, the percent of his fly balls that are going out of the park is dismally low compared to how it was when he was hitting 40+ home runs at Yankee Stadium. Although this could partially be age-related, it could be easily argued that a huge component of this is also the change in ballpark where Granderson plays. It is hard to determine if Granderson could possibly change his approach somehow to adjust to CitiField’s landscape when he is going to be 34 years old next year. The future is looking bleak for Mets fans unless Granderson can figure out how to turn things around next season. http://www.fangraphs.com/community/curtis-granderson-another-mets-free-agent-bust/

Mack – I was thrilled when the Mets signed Granderson to a 4-year, $60mil deal, but I might have been more thrilled because the Mets spent this kind of money on anybody. I never expected to see any 4-year deals out of Sandy Alderson or Fred Wilpon past the 8-year deal for David Wright.

As it turned out, everybody said that 2013 was an ‘off year’ for him because of multiple injuries. He did still manage to punch out 214 at-bats with and OPS of 723. As of Saturday, his OPS with the Mets was .699.

There’s a chance Grandy will finish the season with 20 home runs, which is a good thing, but it’s an embarrassment that he basically has become the fifth or sixth hitter in an anemic lineup.

Yeah I know... he's finishing strong in Septemeber... but spending $60mil for these kind of results would compare to signing Dan Uggla. 

Bad mistake here.       

We continue our search for a trading partner in the American League East division and the Boston Red Sox.

According to Cot[i], the Red Sox have a 2014 payroll of $156,350,125.

Outfield wise, Yoenis Cespedes has one more year (2015) on his contract, at $10.5mil… IMO, consider this a very cheap investment into a very good ballplayer… Shane Victorino also has the 2015 season left on his contract at $13mil… Allan Craig is a recent addition and is contracted through a team option in 2018… and Daniel Nava is pre-ARB at $5565K… and lastly, there still is the ex-prospect Jackie Bradley Jr., who seems to have lost both his way and his job.

Long term, they recently signed Cuban Rusney Castillo who is now signed through the 2020 season and assigned to their AAA affiliate. We can safely assume he will take over a future starting role in Boston, as early as next season.

As if this isn’t enough, there’s prospects Mookie Betts and Gavin Cecchini banging on the door.

That’s eight outfielders, right?

Shortstop wise, Xander Bogaerts (.237) owns this job and is team controlled, pre-ARB. Prospect wise, ex-first rounder Deven Marrero has been somewhat of a bust and is still considered two years away because of his silent bat. 2018 ETA Michael Chavis really projects more as a future second baseman.

Mack Observation – it’s no big secret that Red Sox Chairman Tom Werner wants a top shelf starter for the 2015 season[ii] There’s plenty of young talent coming down the pipeline, but an established pitcher will make things much easy for the Red Sox to reach their goals. What Sandy Alderson has to determine if Werner considers some of the Mets-vets (Gee, Niese, Colon) someone that fits his plan.

That being said, the Sox have made it very clear that they will be going on an off-season shopping spree to build around their new nucleus of young additions (Betts, Cespedes, Castillo). It doesn’t look like we will recognize this team in 2016.

IMO, there’s only one player on the Mets that can get a deal done here… Zack Wheeler. You want Nava or Betts, you have to deal Wheeler.

Lastly, I’d love a shot at Bradley Jr. I think a good coach on a new team could turn this kid around, especially if someone like Granderson would take him under his wing and train him as his replacement. You would be surprised at how little the Red Sox would probably want here to get this kid

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[i] http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/al-east/boston-red-sox/

[ii] http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/boston-red-sox