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2/6/15

Tom Brennan - Majoring on the Minors: Top 30 Prospects - Final Brennan Recap


MAJORING ON THE MINORS: TOP 30 PROSPECTS FINAL RECAP - VOL.31 – Tom Brennan
I’ve just completed my thirty Top 30 Prospects articles – hope you liked them. For those who have not read along, I split them into 2 lists:

·       Top 10 lower minors guys likely not to show up ‘til 2017 or later. 

·       Top 20 list of guys closing in on the big leagues.   

Here are the 2 lists, starting with the “closing in top 20”:
1.      Noah Syndergaard
2.     Steve Matz
3.    Dilson Herrera
4.    Kevin Plawecki
5.    Brandon Nimmo
6.    Matt Reynolds
7.    Akeel Morris
8.    Matt Bowman
9.    Cesar Puello
10.   Cory Mazzoni
11.   Jack Leathersich
12.   Gavin Cecchini
13.   Gabriel Ynoa
14.   Hansel Robles
15.   Rob Whalen
16.   Jayce Boyd
17.   Dario Alvarez
18.   Miller Diaz
19.   Michael Fulmer
20.   Daniel Muno
Let me reiterate that I left Rafael Montero off this list, figuring that 44 innings is enough to say, “no longer a prospect, but now a bona fide big leaguer” in my book.  
Also, getting to that top 20 left off some worthy seasoned players, particularly pitchers Tyler Pill and Paul Sewald, catcher Xorge Carillo, fielding wizard Wilfredo Tovar, fine infielder Jeff McNeil, and slugging outfielder Travis Taijeron.  Sorry, gents.

My top 10 lower minors list came out like this:

# 1 - Marcos Molina

#2 – Michael Conforto

#3 – Amed Rosario

#4 – Dominic Smith

#5 - Jhoan Urena

#6 – Vicente Lupo

#7 – Wuilmer Becerra

#8 – Luis Guillorme

#9 - Casey Meisner

#10 - Milton Ramos

I had to leave some dandies off that list too, like pitchers Cory Oswalt and Brad Wieck, not to mention others.  Again, my apologies, guys.

So if I did my rankings like most other rankers do, I would combine the two lists in a final overall ranking.  And so I shall - please see below:

1.                   Noah Syndergaard
2.                  Steve Matz
3.                  Dilson Herrera
4.                  Kevin Plawecki
5.                  Michael Conforto
6.                  Amed Rosario
7.                  Brandon Nimmo
8.                  Marcos Molina
9.                  Matt Reynolds
10.      Akeel Morris
11.                Matt Bowman
12.      Cesar Puello
13.      Dominic Smith
14.      Cory Mazzoni
15.      Jack Leathersich
16.      Gavin Cecchini
17.      Gabriel Ynoa
18.      Jhoan Urena
19.      Hansel Robles
20.              Rob Whalen
21.     Jayce Boyd
22.              Dario Alvarez
23.              Vicente Lupo
24.              Wuilmer Becerra
25.              Miller Diaz
26.              Michael Fulmer
27.              Daniel Muno
       28.              Luis Guillorme
     29.              Casey Meisner
     30.              Milton Ramos

I think that is a terrific list of talent.  I’d not be surprised to see every single one of these guys make the pros, and some to be outstanding. 

Some of the lower minor guys may rank much higher in next year’s top 30.  I am being a little cautious with them, as some guys who look promising can falter as the competition intensifies.

That’s it, folks.  Hope you enjoyed the series as much as I did writing it.
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22 comments:

  1. Stephen GuilbertFebruary 6, 2015 at 12:36 PM

    Lots of love for Matty Reynolds, huh?

    ReplyDelete
  2. Tom BrennanFebruary 6, 2015 at 12:52 PM

    Hey Stephen

    I did lean a little on "what have you done for me lately" and discounted guys who many highly value but are several rungs down. in the long run, he is likely listed a bit high by me - but he done real good last year, pardner, so I'm riding the wave. But I am a lousy surfer!

    I saw the article used invisible ink on my higher minors top 20 list, so let me put it in here:
    1. Noah Syndergaard
    2. Steve Matz
    3. Dilson Herrera
    4. Kevin Plawecki
    5. Brandon Nimmo
    6. Matt Reynolds
    7. Akeel Morris
    8. Matt Bowman
    9. Cesar Puello
    10. Cory Mazzoni
    11. Jack Leathersich
    12. Gavin Cecchini
    13. Gabriel Ynoa
    14. Hansel Robles
    15. Rob Whalen
    16. Jayce Boyd
    17. Dario Alvarez
    18. Miller Diaz
    19. Michael Fulmer
    20. Daniel Muno

    ReplyDelete
  3. AnonymousFebruary 6, 2015 at 2:05 PM

    Thanks Tom
    For doing these lists, they are enjoyable to read.
    I don't get caught up in numbers where you have this guy or that guy. Look were people had Lagares and deGrom?
    Too me this list has a lot of quality. Each team needs role players to go along with there top tier players/
    These lists show a lot of high end players to go along with role players.


    Steve

    ReplyDelete
  4. UnknownFebruary 6, 2015 at 2:07 PM

    Stephen you beat me to the comment

    I don't get the love for Reynolds - especially when you look at his BABIP and his low slugging percentage - his peripherals scream regression candidate

    That being said, I think is a legitimate ML utility player - he can play 2b / SS and he played 3b in college.

    I think you have him ranked way too high for his ceiling - but I am willing to eat crow if he hits .340 again this year!

    Overall, I enjoyed you series.

    ReplyDelete
  5. AnonymousFebruary 6, 2015 at 2:22 PM

    Reynolds is going to be a quality, role player for the Mets. Just like plawecki. Not superstars with a 100 million dollar contract needs
    But quality team and role players for the team

    Steve

    ReplyDelete
  6. AnonymousFebruary 6, 2015 at 2:23 PM

    Also I don't see Conforto on your list

    ReplyDelete
  7. Mack AdeFebruary 6, 2015 at 2:42 PM

    people do prospect lists in January because there is nothing else to write about

    ReplyDelete
  8. bgreg98180February 6, 2015 at 2:55 PM

    Tom

    Thank you for all of the time, effort, and thought you invested into these articles.
    I enjoyed reading your insights.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Tom BrennanFebruary 6, 2015 at 3:14 PM

    Thanks, everyone, for your kind comments and thoughts.

    No more dual lists for me, anonymous. I've confused many, including Mack...and myself!

    To be clear, Conforto I have ranked as my #5 overall prospect, as you can see if you look towards the bottom of today's article.

    Actual future results (who makes it, and with what degree of success) is ultimately up to the player and serendipity. Hopefully my list bears some resemblance to that in the years to come.

    One thing I felt bad about is having good prospects left out of the top 30 - lot of talent from 30 to 40 also - a few years ago, those would all have been in the top 30.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Tom BrennanFebruary 6, 2015 at 3:18 PM

    As to Matt Reynolds, same point as with Conforto - on my overall list, Matt is #9.

    Probably higher than most would have him, but he is not #6 overall - the #6 was just a ranking of those guys above rookie ball.

    Coming up next week - an 8 part series (6 offense articles, 2 pitcher articles) that ultimately spells out why I think this team will win 92 games this year.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Bob SugarFebruary 6, 2015 at 4:00 PM

    Thanks Thomas! Big question. Would we better off with Wally Backman giving out the lineup card this years?? Sandy didn't think so

    ReplyDelete
  12. Tom BrennanFebruary 6, 2015 at 4:05 PM

    I was more pro-Wally until he did not play Muno and Puello as much as I thought as high prospects, vs. the Seratelli's of the team.

    Maybe Wally's hands were tied, but I am kind of neutral on both. I'd prefer someone else. Ideas?

    ReplyDelete
  13. eraffFebruary 6, 2015 at 4:53 PM

    With so many of these guys likely to make an impact, I think it's time to start thinning the herd....The 16, 17, and 18 Draftees will be imnmediately Blocked.

    Dragging your feet on Trading Gee, Niese and Colon is bad enough.... but we're so stacked everywhere that our next "flight" is gonna get jammed and damaged.

    It's time to Makle some decisions.... Rosario is Blocking Guillorme and Ramos!!! Urena or Garcia?????.... Meisner or Horne!!??? Ciccini??...WTF!!!

    Why is Sandy sitting on his Hands!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    ReplyDelete
  14. Tom BrennanFebruary 6, 2015 at 5:02 PM

    Gonna split it into 2 teams.

    At some point, the dam's gonna burst. But we may just see our top 4 teams in minors win 60% again.

    ReplyDelete
  15. HobieFebruary 6, 2015 at 5:23 PM

    Just so I get your drift...

    Molina is ranked ahead of Conforto & Rosario on the Guppy 10, but behind them on the combined 30.

    Won't argue with either list, but what's the thinking there?

    ReplyDelete
  16. eraffFebruary 6, 2015 at 6:20 PM

    Hobie---It's "The Vapors"--- a latter day REEFER MADNESS!!!

    ReplyDelete
  17. Tom BrennanFebruary 6, 2015 at 10:04 PM

    Like eraff said, Hobie...it then all becomes clearer!


    And now...Happy baseball to all, and to all a good night!

    ReplyDelete
  18. Steve from NorfolkFebruary 7, 2015 at 6:21 AM

    Tom,

    As always, I enjoyed your writing. This series took a lot of work, and your writing style made it enjoyable to read. You have what I consider a personable style, making the reader feel as if he is having a one-on-one conversation with you. Thanks for the series - your hard work is greatly appreciated by me, and I'm sure by the other readers. I look forward to your next piece.

    Dteve Carhart

    ReplyDelete
  19. eraffFebruary 7, 2015 at 6:53 AM

    Tom, Great series!

    I believe you "missed" on Kurtis Horne, a very late and young LH Pitcher...he was drafted out of Canada.

    He's very talanted...somehwat surprising Signing!

    The highest compliment I can pay him is that HE'S ALREADY BEING BLOCKED!!!!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sRbP7XhXMwU

    ReplyDelete
  20. eraffFebruary 7, 2015 at 7:01 AM

    More Kurtis Horne Video

    http://mlb.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=33290519?topic_id=67565098&width=400&height=224&property=mlb' width='400' height='224' frameborder='0'

    ReplyDelete
  21. eraffFebruary 7, 2015 at 7:03 AM

    Here's a better Link

    http://mlb.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=33290519

    ReplyDelete
  22. Tom BrennanFebruary 7, 2015 at 8:02 AM

    Thanks, Steve Carhart

    Baseball is ultimately about fun and enjoyment. I just try to write in that theme.

    Eraff, Horne and other pitchers can only be considered blocked when they've gotten to 10 career innings. Young Mr Horne is only up to 8.1 innings. He'll be officially blocked next June.

    ReplyDelete