The payroll is expected to rise next year, and with the strong increase in attendance and TV ratings already, the money should be there for a substantial hike. But how should it be done?
Despite Alderson's track record of not re-signing anyone with an expiring contract who dares to state that he wants to remain a Met, we currently have 5+ who will be FAs at season's end.
One whom we definitely have no place for is Big Bart(olo). He has served us well IMO, but If everyone stays healthy we have 5 SPs (6 once Wheeler is ready) ready for '16, with Verrett, Montero, and maybe Gee, ready to fill in if needed.
Then we have Cespedes, Murphy, Johnson and Uribe, the first 2 of whom have said they want to stay and the second 2 who are probably interested. I think all of us here want Cespedes back, if the hurdles can be overcome, so that leaves three position players.
Uribe IIRC has said before he was traded here that he might be ready to retire, so if he wants another year he should be not overly expensive. If we keep him, he could be the backup for David, and a solid PHer with some pop.
Johnson has versatility and a decent bat, but with our current IF plus (probably) Dilson I don't see much room, if any. Oddly enough, both this year and over his full career he's hit better vs LHPs than righties, so he doesn't seem right for a platoon.
That leaves Murphy. Arguably our most consistent hitter and best in the clutch, he has only hit below .280 once (in '09) in his career.
He has hit .313 with RISP in his career and .311 this year. He's a career .296 hitter vs RHPs and .269 vs LHPs. His career BA as PHer is .276.
He'll be 31 on OD '16, and WANTS to be here. He can play every IF position except SS at least adequately.
Unless his demands are outrageous, IMO he's a keeper.
Without having to go outside the org and overpaying for someone who may be a boom or a bust, I can envision a roster something like this:
C-- TdA/ Plawecki
1B-- Duda
2B--Dilson/Flores
SS--Tejada
3B--Wright/Uribe/Murphy
LF--Conforto/Cuddyer
CF--Cespedes/Lagares
RF--- Grandy
SP---Harvey, deGrom, Thor, Matz, Niese
Pen--Clip, Familia, Robles, 4 others from Parnell, Black, C Torres, Verrett, Goeddel, A Torres, Dario Alvarez, Gilmartin, O'Flaherty, Akeel Morris, and some I can't think of. And yes, some of these are FAs who may or may not be re-signed.
OK--fire away with your thoughts. But keep in mind that there should be no need to "go cheap", so saying "player X isn't worth what he'll ask" is a questionable argument.
I do not for a second believe that Murphy will be back. Someone is going to pay him more then 10 mm a year for at least 3 years. The real question is can we steal a QO draft pick like CO did for Cuddyer
ReplyDeletethat being said. I desperately want Uribe back. Some guys are just winners. They make other people better Uribe is one of those guys. I highly recommend reading Molly Knights book, on the dodgers to now what kind of player he is. And the mets will need to hedge against david Wrights back in a real way going forward.
I dont think Cespendes will be back as I just dont see him signing that quickly. Especially when 100mm is the starting point. Though he might be in one of those weird NBA free agency positions where he agrees to an offer he cant sign until he can sign it.
I would be happy with retaining kelly johnson too. he's a great bench piece.
Qualifying offer is what next year?
Delete$15 million??
Tender Murphy the qualifying offer and that may lead to a tough decision for Murphy.
Either way, he stays the Mets win and if he goes, the Mets have an extra draft pick.
I see Herrera as our 2B next year. Money saved there over Murph, and sign Cespedes. If he's good the next few years He is tradable ar a fair price.
ReplyDeleteTyler Clippard is a free agent at the end of this year too Bill.
ReplyDeleteI see Kelly Johnson being a cheaper sign than Murphy. He may not hit for as a high an average as Murphy, but more power and more versatility.
ReplyDeleteI see Herrera at 2B in 2016 and Flores and Tejada spitting SS again so if you needed one extra infielder it will not be Murphy at big bucks. Kelly Johnson makes a lot more sense. If Wright is a no go next Spring then I bring either Murphy or Uribe back
Same analogy with Cespedes. Too may signed and cheap options in the OF. You have Cuddyer, Lagares and Granderson that are signed and Conforto and Nimmo on the cusp. I love the trade but no way they resign Cespedes and his yellow parakeet.
Have to sign Clippard with Meja suspended and Vic Black playing craps in Vegas. That is the expensive signing I make.
O'Flaherty is a free agent also Medford
ReplyDeleteYes, Anonymous, I know Clip and O'Flaherty are FAs. That's why I said at the bottom of my list of RPs that "some of these are FAs".
ReplyDeleteWhat does O'Flaherty have to do with Medford?
They have $60M committed to Wright, Granderson, Cuddyer, Niese and Lagares next year.
ReplyDeleteGee (DFA), Duda ($8M), Tejada ($3M), Harvey ($5.5M), Torres ($1.5M), Familia ($2.8), Edgin (<$1M), Recker (DFA) & I guess technically Mejia ($?$?$?) are Arb eligible ($ are estimates).
That's about $82M committed to 11 guys. Add deGrom, Flores, d'Arnaud, Thor, Matz, Gilmartin, Robles & Conforto all making league min., that brings the payroll up to $86M for 20 guys (including backup C). That's 10 position players and 10 pitchers.
Tons of options for league min. pen guys but I think paying a guy like Clippard good money make sense. That brings us up to about $95M.
For arguments sake, signing Cespedes and say Kelly Johnson/Juan Uribe would bring opening day payroll to about $125M. That's up almost $25M from last year but that's essentially the same team as this year and you see how dangerous they are. That would jump the Mets into the top half in payroll but would still be considerably outside the Top 10 (adding Murphy instead of Johnson would prob push to 10th in payroll next year).
The key to this team is fielding a lights out rotation for $16M. Crazy.
It really comes down to whether Coupon Fred is willing to pay Cespedes to guarantee that his team will competed for the next five years. Of course they could copy this years strategy and trade off assets at the trading deadline next year for a two month rental.
ReplyDeleteYou have a superstar. Do what we did with Piazza who was in the same position when he came over and we will compete for the life of his contract.
Look at the Giants model. Great rotation and Buster Posey equals three rings. They add pieces as they need them every year. Wright should be our cornerstone, like Posey, but injuries will prevent that. Sign up Cespedes as the cornerstone.
I think you have to make Murph a qualifying offer. If he leaves for a longer term deal, you get the pick. If he stays, he's a solid hitter who plays 3 positions and you're only committing a year to him. Particularly on a team with a questionable DW, and an heir apparent at 2B that's still only going to be 22 next year.
ReplyDeleteNiese gets traded this offseason (if he continues to shine the rest of this season, he'll actually bring a return. That saves you $9 mil or so.
I have to think that despite the finances, and as long as they continue to make this run, that they'll make a real effort to sign Cespedes. Can that? Dunno. But he's my choice 1 and 1A.
Johnson is gone. I'd make a reasonable 1 year offer to Uribe. Also, and especially if you sign Cespedes, I'm perfectly happy with a versatile, mix and match infield in which Tejada and Flores are the primary SS.
No one will give up a #1 to sign Murphy and the Mets won't gamble that he might take the one year $15 million qualifying offer.
ReplyDeleteJust in case Nimmo figured into next year's plans, thought I'd mention he's been at AAA for 14 games and for the last 10 hrs hitting over .400 and has an OBP of .550.
ReplyDelete*last 10 games, not hrs
ReplyDelete