Mack’s Morning Report – 8-21-15 – Dom Smith, AA Baseball, Eric Goeddel, Wuilmer Becerra

Good morning.

Twitter Tidbits –

Matt Harvey has 16 career starts in which he has allowed one or no runs without receiving a win, the most such starts for a pitcher in his first 59 career games in the last century.

Dario Alvarez has a 2.75 ERA in 42 minor league appearances this season.

Eric Goeddel has a 1.96 ERA in 22 appearances this season.

Michael asks –

          Does Dom Smith project to hit enough (contact AND power) to bat 3rd in the lineup?

The scouting criticisms of Nimmo aside, I could see a lineup featuring:

CF Nimmo

SS Cecchini

1B Smith

????

LF Conforto

Ca d'Arnaud

????

????

Maybe Wright's in there but his health is an unknown.  Herrera looks like he'll have a spot, maybe he hits high in the lineup and Cheech hits lower.  Maybe Becerra becomes the cleanup hitter but he's too far away to start penciling him in anywhere.  I guess my point is, maybe the way the Mets keep all of this pitching is to implement a Phase2 of the rebuild, construct a young and cheap lineup that scores.

Do we have the horses within the organization to build a major league lineup that produces enough run support to keep our pitchers winning?

          Mack – Hey Michael.

I have a much different opinion on Smith than many of the followers (and writers) here at Mack’s Mets. I think he’ll succeed as a major league first baseman as a contact hitter, but I don’t think he will generate the kind of home run power most teams want from their first baseman. He’s excellent defensively, but my guess his tops are in the 10-15 home run level.

All the names you listed look like good candidates for a starting position on a future Mets team, but it could be a team that ranks very low in slugging percentage. You’re going to need some guys (like Granderson, Duda, Cespedes) to fill in the open slots in your lineup.

It’s far too early to speculate who they would be.

One thing… I really like Becerra and don’t be surprised if Kevin Kaczmarski doesn’t give him a run for the 2018 starting outfield.  

Oh… did I mention that the Mets first baseman in Kingsport is leading that league in home runs?

Sugar asks –

Big Mack, Do you think it's accurate to say that you really don't know if a ball player is going to make it to the bigs until they play and compete very well in AA?  I believe I picked this up on your site. I've heard AA is the biggest jump. If this is the case there are probably just a few exceptions. Dom Smith in advanced A comes to mind. Loyal follower here with you and diehard orange and blue.

          Mack – Hey Sugar.

The ‘AA’ level is called, by the scouts and cross checkers, the ‘prospect league’ for obvious reasons… only the best of the lower affiliate levels usually get an invite to join that team.

It’s also the first level that they have to compete against an entire team (usually) of prospects. Lower levels may have two or three guys in the field that stand out and two tops on the mound. These are the ‘best of the best’, and producing at a high level here is the first true indication you may have the talent to excel in this game.

AAA is different. Its main purpose is to park players with major league experience that could be called upon at a phone call’s notice to rejoin the parent team. It also could have players like Dan Rolfing or Brooks Conrad that are just there to fill in a slot where someone at the AA level is determined to either not be ready to jump yet, or involved in a playoff race.

All of this makes sense until you look at the Binghamton roster and see drones like Vince Benome, Joe Benson, and Jonathan Galvez on the active roster. My guess is they want to keep the St. Lucie roster intact during their playoff run.

But, to go back to your original question… yes, ‘AA’ ball is the wall.

 Michael Baron brings us up to date on Eric Goeddel –

                  Part of what led to Goeddel’s break out in the first half of the season was the emergence of a new split-fingered fastball, which served as a replacement to his change-up, which had been inconsistent at best for him.

The split-finger became Goeddel’s best friend, and a very reliable weapon in his arsenal. The opposition has swung and missed at over 26 percent of his splitters this season, hitting just .111 overall against that pitch.

          Goeddel seems ready to return, if needed, to the Mets pen.

Bren (Pearl River, NY): - Wuilmer Becerra is hitting a nice .300/.352/.450 in a tough environment in Savannah, and has cut down on his K's. How close is he to top 100 consideration?

Ben Badler: Pretty far away still, but his stock is certainly up.

mjk (wyckoff, nj): Hi....assuming Conforto and Matz are no longer prospect eligible, how does the Mets system shape up for next year? tx

Ben Badler: It’s still solid, but it’s thinned out. But it’s thinner for the right reasons, because those prospects are graduating to the big leagues and having success there. Plus they have breakout potential in the lower levels with players like Luis Guillorme, Sanchez, Gimenez and Guerrero, among others.

Chris (Larchmont): Thoughts on Marcos Molina? Is he a future reliever bc of his delivery?

Ben Badler: No. 2 or 3 starter stuff, but the arm problems elevate the risk factor.