David Schoenfield | ESPN Sweet Spot- The MVP award doesn't always go to the best player, even if that should be the case. As we know, the MVP is a labyrinthine combination of statistics, narrative, memorable moments and whether a player's team makes the playoffs. And that's why this Cespedes-for-MVP storyline has some legitimate steam. More than anything, he's building that narrative -- he turned around the Mets' offense! -- and many of the writers who vote for the MVP award absolutely love that kind of stuff. The facts: Through July 31, the Mets had averaged 3.54 runs per game, worst in the majors. Since Cespedes played his first game with the Metropolitans on Aug. 1, they've averaged 6.14 runs per game, most in the majors. You see the argument: He changed the entire dynamic of that lineup.
(Chris Soto: Oh man...what more can be said about this Mets team. Last night was, yet again, another unbelievable comeback win. First Kelly Johnson with the pinch hit HR, and then Yeonis Cespedes absolutely crushes a Drew Storen curveball into the Mets bullpen where all of his teammates are jumping around like madmen at a rock concert. This team has a special magic to it right now. That something extra that hasn't been present in a very long time. Lets see if the club can avoid a let down and take 3 out of 4 from the bottom feeding Braves this weekend.)
John Harper | NY Daily News- David Wright has never been one to show too much emotion on the field, living by the ballplayers’ code that demands an even keel over 162 games. But suddenly he’s letting the fist pumps fly, relishing the joy of big wins here this week in more visible ways than usual. It’s not hard to understand why. “There were times, sitting on the training table in the rehab center, when I’d be thinking to myself, ‘I’m not sure what’s going to happen,'" Wright said. “I was hopeful and optimistic, but some days didn’t feel so good, and those were the days when you’d play out the worst-case scenario in your mind."
(Chris Soto: David Wright looks surprisingly good for someone with spinal stenosis. Since he has been back, Wright is hitting .286 with a .786 OPS and very manageable K and BB rates. In fact they are not that far removed from the pace he was beginning to establish at the beginning of the season. If this is the player David Wright is going to be over the rest of his contract length, Mets fans should be quite happy.)
Mike Puma | New York Post- Jacob deGrom’s workload doesn’t concern the Mets, but team brass is still mulling the possibility of skipping the right-hander in the rotation at some point. “If we could do it I think it would be a preference,” general manager Sandy Alderson said. “Just general, giving him a break, I think it would be a good idea — as it would be for most.” This season, deGrom has pitched 176 innings, putting him on pace to eclipse 200 for the first time in his career.
(Chris Soto: Sweeping the Nationals and opening a 7 game lead on them with only 23 games left to play is a massive advantage. If the Mets can at least take the 1st 2 games from the Braves, it will provide them the luxury of giving not just their SP but a lot of guys on the team some rest. This has been a wild, emotional, ride over the past week or so and the last thing Terry wants is a letdown from mental exhaustion. )
Chris -
ReplyDeleteI especially enjoyed the ESPN coverage of last night's game.
Yes, they singled out Cespedes as the main addition, but they also applaud this team for becoming a legitimate baseball 'power' (as they put it) in an incredibly short period of time.
Cespedes fOr President while we're at it. How great is this guy? When he got up in the 8th, I was expecting a homer. Not hoping for one.
ReplyDeleteNats gave it the best they had with Strasburg and Harper. The best was not good enough.
I loved it that Kelly Johnson's game-tying homer wasn't 2 inches over the fence but an upper deck blast that said to the Nats, "Fun's over. We'll take it from here."
God bless Jeurys Familia. What a job he's doing. He deserves Jason Bay $$ right now, even though he won't get it. If Cespedes does not win MVP, give it to Familia.
Let's sweep Atlanta, both to atone for beatings the Mets took during the Chipper/Maddux/Smoltz era. And so we can start to rest the pitchers.
Thomas -
ReplyDeleteI almost feel sorry for the Nats players (minus Spanky). Their faces seem to tell you that they know it's only a matter of time before the Mets come back and beat them in their home park.
This really is is a Rizzo failure IMO, not a Williams, though you may see both hit the bricks over this season.
I know they're professionals but I felt bad for Storen. Williams should never have sent him to the wolves again.
DeleteHey perhaps instead of going nuts over Terry Collins and his decision making lets talk matt williams for a second.
ReplyDeleteAfter the utter collapse the night before, williams sends Drew Storen right back to the mound to face the meat of the Mets now potent lineup. Wow.....thats like of terry would have sent Parnell right back in there in that situation.
And that terry collins like decision to bench strasberg after his utter domination due to a bad pitch to kelly Johnson and Grandy. Espn guys made a good point apparently regarding strasberg having no actual history of pitching into the 8th of games, let alone 9th......
Its a good future thought to consider with Mets studs going forward. Gotta go deep into games for experience if pitch count is low. Its important.
Strange that Rizzo traded away Clippard and Blevins. Bad bullpens have ruined many GMs over the years.
ReplyDeleteWhat a contrast in the dugouts. I know winning does that, but the vibe was completely different. I wonder about the Harper effect. After his HRs, I'd say that the Nats dugout was polite in its response. No joy, no great enthusiasm. The tone of this Mets team is completely different. It really feels like a TEAM.
Play of the game: Wright keeping his glove on that guy at 3B. Huge moment. Goes from 2nd & 3rd, one out to man on 2nd, two outs. But more than those mere facts, it just reinforced the feeling that these Nats were not up to the task at hand.
James Preller
I was at the game last night - surrounded by Nats fans - when Store came in I said I said it was a mistake and that it should have been Thornton because Cespedes doesn't hit lefties well
ReplyDeleteI turned to the guy next to me and called the HR
I am glad that Rizzo has ignored the bullpen - I have been telling the local Nats fans that Rizzo should be blamed - not Williams - why didn't Rizzoli add a guy like Reed in August? He made no efforts like Sandy did
ReplyDeleteEven when everything is going right, there still have to be jabs at Terry? Does he get any credit for subbing KJ for Wilmer? Leaving Robles in for 2 full IP with 6 straight outs?
ReplyDeleteOf COURSE not!��
Ok.
DeleteI'll give Collins credit.
Incredible making the call on pinch hitting Johnson.
I wonder if that was purely a call he made as a "gut feeling".
I can't believe the Nats havent fired Matt Williams. All the better for the Mets I guess. Its hard to believe he won a manager of the year award. Just shows how little that means.
ReplyDeleteI never felt any real animosity against the Nats other than wanting to beat them. I always had a little more hate for the Phillies and Braves. If Harper ever wants to play for the Mets some day, sign me up.
I hope the Mets keep pressing a little, would like home field advantage vs the Dodgers who hold a 2 game lead over the Mets right now. Tonight I expect TC to trot out a lineup of scrubs against the Braves best pitcher to rest regulars. Keep the pressure on!
Have you guys seen a more exciting series than the one we just watched? 3 dramatic come from behind wins where it looked like the Nats would win them. Harvey and Niese pounded and Strasburg looking nearly untouchable.
I would love to see Cespedes get MVP but I am someone who thinks it should go to the person with the best stats. Putting a completely subjective assignment to the award seems dumb to me. Some people think you have to be a contender to get a vote. If thats the case then you should just eliminate anyone on a team that didnt make it to the playoffs from consideration on your ballot at all. Thats just ridiculous. Player shouldnt be penalized because his owner/gm/manager/teamates are terrible if they are clearly the best player in the league.
Chris,
ReplyDeleteExcellent points. DW has been a little overlooked, but frankly. health aside, he had his best seasons when he was part of a strong lineup, not the lynchpin. With a little pressure off from line up depth, he can hopefully relax and contribute more. I also think that skipping deGrom at least once would be a huge benefit, but they need to secure the division first.
Mack,
I can't feel sorry for the Nats or their players. While the Mets have been tremendous, the Nats have no one to blame but themselves. Their play was atrocious, from the 6 walks in 1 inning with a 7-1 lead, to bunting Rendon in the 9th of game 2, to Storen's absolute batting tee meatball to Cespedes last night. The great thing about baseball is that the game is almost always decided by who plays better, not who looks better.
The Nats remain a SHINING example of why IMO it was really really important for Mets to go 'all in' this year, acquiring/renting Anyone and everyone in the here and now to go for a title.
ReplyDeleteMetsiac, I hear you about the jabs at TC.
ReplyDeleteHow can anyone watch the Mets play right now, the emotion and togetherness in that dugout, and not realize that the manager deserves some credit. He's handled the new roster beautifully. Everyone involved, everyone pulling on the same oar.
I see that same stuff at other sites too. The culture of chronic complaint. The Mets sweep the Nats, riding one of the all-time greatest waves in Mets history, and some folks are still trying to take pot-shots at Collins.
He's not perfect, nobody is, but there's a lot going right these days. The manager deserves a lot of credit -- and as long as things continue, an extension.
James Preller
Terry Collins deserves all the credit for maintaining, supporting, and developing great attitudes and team work in the club house.
DeleteCan he please stop batting Cespedes in the 2nd spot of the lineup though?
Please?
Collins deserves huge credit for helping to make his team pumped up and team-first. if the vote were today? Manager of the Year.
ReplyDeleteOnce Sandy gave him the tools, including a guy who has what, 26 extra base hits in 36 games with the team, he had the chance to shine.
Even looking back at the times in June and July they were really struggling, Terry now says the guys then were trying as hard as they could. What better way to say it? Kudos, Mr. Collins. You are trying as hard as you can, and we darned well appreciate it.
Terry Collins is a genius and an idiot every game, every play, every decision. Its what happens when you're a manager/supervisor/coach/GM of a public sports franchise.
ReplyDeletePeople share their emotions through words/tweets/billboards/protests/actions........
Its either that or we just log into macks mets every day for every previous losing seasons and talk about how nice everything is and that its ok to lose because we all love and respect each other and our team coaches, owners, management and GM.
I'll applaud Terry Collins for seemingly having come to the conclusion that the sky won't fall and the earth won't stop spinning on its axis if Wilmer Flores starts the majority of the time. It only took him 1.75 years to get there, but better late than never.
ReplyDeleteSuppose I gave you a reliever who has struck out 11 batters per 9 IP, holds a 4:1 K to BB ratio, and hitters are managing to bat just .220 against him...and this is considered an "OFF" year for the guy? Hell, I'm in Matt Williams' camp regarding Drew Storen. He's the best he has. If another team beats your best, hats off to them, but to bash Williams for using Storen this way is unfair.
ReplyDeleteReese, do you ever consider the possibility that Wilmer is finding his groove and EARNING more playing time because of the way Terry has brought him along slowly? Or are you absolutely 100% certain that it's in SPITE of that? We know you love Wilmer and hate Terry and Ruben, but what makes you so sure that Terry is the bad guy here?
ReplyDeleteWhen Wilmer made those 12 Errors in the first half, while batting .250, did he really deserve the majority of the starts? Fair is fair. He's doing fine now, and hopefully will continue to, but Terry's attitude is that time goes to those who EARN it.
Why do you have a problem with that?
To be fair. Collins has not proven in the past few years that he gave time to players according to how they performed. He had his favorites, mostly veterans.
DeleteRemember he built a strong reputation of benching players right after big games.
@Reese - Collins said he made the gut call to pinch hit KJ because of how Strasburg was eating up righties - the stats show Strasburg is generally harder on LHH - great, great call by TC there - nice when he has a real hitter on the bench
ReplyDelete@Bob - the higher you hit in the lineup the more times you come up - nothing wrong with having Cespedes hit behind the guy who gets on base the most - I personally would go Grandy-Wright-Cespedes because of Cespedes' weakness against LHP, but I am not quibbling with him batting 2nd and maybe getting one more PA a game
The percent of 2nd place hitters that get more plate appearances in a game than 3rd place must be extremely small.
ReplyDeleteProblem with Cespedes in the 2nd spot:
Leadoff hitters reach base by single or walk more often than doubles.
Cespedes is proving to be a big run producer. 2nd place hitter does not have to be as good a hitter as long as they can move a player into scoring position or reach base by double.
Murphy or other can more ideally fill that role.
This allows Cespedes to fill the run producing role better.
Also a batter can support not just the batter directly in front of or behind him, but also the batter in front of or behind that.
Batting 3rd or 4th provides support to 4 of your better hitters.
Batting 2nd wastes some of the impact of that support on a 9th place hitter.
HEY GUYS -
ReplyDeleteI HAVE A QUESTION... maybe I should have saved this for one of my Morning Reports, but I thought I'd throw it out there this morning...
How far does the Mets have to go for all of us to REALLY be satisfied this season?
Is it getting to the playoffs.
Is it getting to the NL finals?
Is it getting to the World Series?
Or will it take a World Series win?
For me, after all these years of no playoff games, getting to play a team like St. Louis would be good enough for me.
I'm curious how all of you feel.
Getting to the playoffs and showing they keep the team chemistry focused on playing as a team would be great in my opinion
ReplyDeleteGetting into the NLCS is my minimal satisfaction. But a repeat of'06 would be a downer. If we lose we lose. But not on a called third strike with the WS a pitch away.
ReplyDeleteIm satisfied with division title especially because it means NO play in game for them.........better to lose series fair and square then lose play in game after 9yrs of nothing.
ReplyDeleteI'd be satisfied with making playoffs...because all this good feeling stuff would culminate in a legit accomplishment...but really want the World Series win.
ReplyDeleteKingsport was 40-28, Greenville 34-33, yet Kingsport was knocked out. If our team is not now the best (it may well be best), I will take some Greeneville Luck. Win it all. In 2015...2016...2017. Time for OUR dynasty.
I'm already satisfied. Back when the reins were handed to Sandy, I said we'd be competitive in 2015 and winners in 2016. Well, we are certainly competitive. The bar rises for next year (unless of course we win it all this year; then, I dunno...repeat?). Given the 7 game lead, odds are pretty good we're in the playoffs. OTOH, I get nervous when fans start talking like we're the '27 Yankees. If you are not humble, you will be humbled. Its something I truly believe. Put in earthier terms, God'll get you if you're a dick.
ReplyDeleteTerry Collins is the same manager he was when everybody hated him. He just has a pretty full toolbox, now. I could see them giving him manager of the year, but he's not really a difference maker as a manager. I still hope he steps aside or gets kicked upstairs before next season. We'll need a different kind of manager for the next phase.
I don't understand why you'd want Cespedes moved in the lineup at this point. We are winning with Yoenis batting second. Why mess with what's working? Who knows, that little decision to bat him second might be the linchpin of the whole shooting match. FWIW, over the course of a full season, batting second is good for an additional 35 plate appearances over batting 4th, and nearly 50 more than batting fifth. That's not insignificant.
The MVP debate has gone on for decades. The meaning of the award is not specified. So half your voters vote based upon offensive stats over the course of the season while the other half vote for the guy who made the biggest difference to his team. And I don't know how any of them feel about guys who switch leagues mid-year, though no player doing so has ever won MVP. Most "Valuable" would seem to indicate it should be the impact guy, but its usually the stats guy who wins. If I had a vote, I'd vote Cespedes; he has clearly made a bigger difference to the Mets than any other player in the league has made to their team. But my guess is they'll give it to Harper. If the voters are troubled by Washington's fall, those votes will likely slide to Goldschmidt or even Greinke, not Yoenis.
Best bit of analysis from ESPN on the night was Braden (that hotdog) pointing out how the entire Oakland team collapsed after Cespedes left. The Mets MUST make a substantial play to keep him. There are players who raise the game of everyone around them and Yoenis is one of those players. Don't know why, but it is so. Its not strictly about talent. I've seen Hall of Fame caliber players who have no effect on the team around them whatsoever. I've seen bench guys who can bring a team to life. But, whatever it is, Yoenis makes the Mets better than the sum of their parts. There's no guarantee that anyone else would. We need to keep Cespedes.
Sucks to be a Nationals fan, this morning. My heart goes out to them.
2 things:
Delete1st- 35 at bats out of...I'll use 600 at bats just for the sake of not having to do all the calculations and research. That is a rough estimate of 6%????
Now let's say 35 games......ok.... this makes it more to your point of around 20 - 25% of games......
But that is going by 4th place hitters and using the numbers you stated.
What about the difference between batting 2nd and 3rd?? Maybe 20 plate appearances?? (Just me guessing here not looking up)
If that guess is correct now we are talking about 3% of 600 at bats? And somewhere around 16 games?
Factor in how many games actually will need the hitter to be up to bat that extra last time to win the game? Or put the game out of reach?
That is insignificant.
2nd- not addressing the added value of batting 3rd or 4th has on run producing and affecting others with support in the lineup.
There is a reason that teams have batted the best run producers in the 2nd and 4th spot of lineups for years and years in every league at all levels.
Well, trying to be objective here, look at Passan's tweet here about Harper (https://twitter.com/JeffPassan/status/642049500442435584). His team probably won't make the playoffs but they probably wouldnt have even been in the conversation without him. He leads the majors in just about every offensive category. Its a no brainer as much as we like Cespedes, Harper is the best player in baseball right now. If you can't make it about performance and stats then what can you make it about? Subjective feelings? I just cant get behind that argument. It means the award means something different every year depending on the feel good story for the voters if they all vote that way. Same thing with Cy Young. Dickey/Kershaw were so close statistically that the story probably pushed Dickey over to win it despite Kershaw having slightly better numbers. If Cespedes and Harper were anywhere close statistically (they arent) then maybe you could give it to the feel good story.
ReplyDeleteBob,
ReplyDeleteI think the organization has done a lot of computer simulations and the brains behind the curtain have made the call that the #2 spot is the place to get the most RBI opportunities, etc.
I'm saying, I think this idea comes from the top. At start of season, they wanted Wright in there. Advanced SABR-something.
I honestly don't know that they are right or wrong, though I suspect it doesn't super matter. Cespedes does seem to keep coming up in big spots.
My friend and I have been joking these past 5 weeks that it doesn't matter what TC does, they win anyway!
I'm not sweating the small stuff.
James Preller
Mack,
ReplyDeleteTo answer your question:
I will be very satisfied with the Division title AND the fact that the Mets are as good as any team in baseball right now. I honestly think that, with a little luck, they can beat anybody -- all the way to the World Series.
At the same time, if Kershaw stays on fire, at the absolute top of his game, alongside Grienke, then the Dodgers are going to be a very tough beat in a five-game NLDS. I like the overall Mets team better.
I'd love to see a Mets-Cubs NLCS.
James Preller
Another random thought. The Mets have what 37 players on the bench now? I thought I heard they had all but 3 guys from the 40 man up. This is great move by Sandy to give maximum flexibility over the remaining games and may help win an extra game or two especially those games going to extras.
ReplyDeleteOther than some of the bullpen moves against Miami last week I havent had that many bones to pick with TC. Some suboptimal moves here and there but seems to manage much better than Freddi/Williams among others. Hurdle seem to out manage TC in the Pirate games. With 37 players he has more options I just hope he doesnt send out the scrubs(Campbell,Kirk,EY etc) to start until we have clinched definitively. Adam Rubin just did an article on all the biggest chokes (there are many besides 2007 Mets) so we cant get too comfortable just yet.
On TC, I think I am generally built to be childishly oppositional. When I see everybody piling on the guy, I want to come to his defense. I think managers take far too much flak. There are issues, of course, but when I look at how the TEAM is playing, the way they seem to be all together, I have to give credit to the captain of the ship. It's not an easy job.
ReplyDeleteIn the eyes of most fans, the modern manager looks as smart as the quality of his bullpen.
James Preller
I reject the notion that the Cespedes/Harper argument has anything whatsoever to do with "feel good stories". The Award is "Most VALUABLE Player", not the Ty Cobb Award (or insert your favorite hitter here). Cy Young Award is for the best pitcher. But is MVP for the best hitter or the most VALUABLE player. It says its about the latter. So, yes, absolutely, that requires subjective evaluations. As I say, a little less than half of the baseball writers believe the award is for what it says and (they argue), if you want it to be about the statistical king, change the name of the damn award. Many years, the two aspects come down on the same player. Many other years, there is no player who clearly had so much of an impact, so the stats guy prevails again. The stats guy will take it most years, regardless of what voters' thoughts on the award is.
ReplyDeleteAnd I expect Harper to get it anyway. Some of his numbers are insane and I still can't imagine the writers giving it to a guy who changed leagues mid-season.
BUT the argument can be made--and I would make it--that the Nationals were picked by everybody to dominate but, even with Harper, floundered instead while nobody picked the Mets to win anything, and Cespedes propelled them to the top. He has 14 home runs and 36 RBIs in 36 games. That's like 70 home runs and 150 RBIs over a full season. As it is, Cespedes has 32 home runs this year (Harper has 36) and 97 RBIs (Harper has 85). For the year, Yoenis is batting .312 (Harper .336). Harper has 6 stolen bases on the season. Cespedes has 7--4 just for the Mets already. The percentage stats aren't too different, if you're just using Cespedes time with the Mets (Cespedes' slugging percentage is higher). And Cespedes clearly made a difference to the entire Mets team. He makes everybody around him better. I'm not sure Harper does that. No doubt, Harper's your guy based purely on the numbers, overall. But Most Valuable? I gotta go with Yoenis.
Stubby its 100% a feel good story. Yes Cespedes has been incredible for the Mets but only in the league for just over 2 months! The Mets have a great storyline going their way and you can't say you and the writers/voters arent using that to influence their decision. Stats can't measure everything but they get you most of the way. Harper is the Most Valuable Player he is just stuck on a team with a bad manager and bullpen. If you were to pick a player to be on your team based solely on their body of work for 2015 you would pick Harper, seems straight forward enough to me. Even across their whole body of work its not close. Sure you can use RBIs if you want. I think RBI's and Wins are the metrics people used in the 80's to evaluate players (ask Shelby Millier what he thinks of Wins as a metric of his performance or Harvey for that matter). Compare OBP, SLG, OPS, WAR and you will see its not close. Some Mets goggles are influencing your view greatly. I'm pretty sure you could find a similar 36 game span for Harper that just happened earlier in the season where Cespedes is in your current working memory and you see it every day.
ReplyDeleteI don't want to talk about this much more, lest my "be humble" proclamation comes back to bite me. And I've already conceded that Harper is 99.9% certain to win it. BUT... The award is Most VALUABLE Player. Not BEST player. I didn't name it and the people who did never defined what it means. Its like the old Ralph Kiner story. "We finished last with you, we can finish last without you." How valuable is a guy who leads the league with 47 home runs and 120 RBIs for a last place team? The answer is "not at all". In fact, when those circumstances have arisen, the writers generally pass over the guy on the last place team, no matter how great the stats. So we're just talking about the degree, here. The Nats were supposed to dominate. They didn't. So you can't say Harper elevated his team to or beyond expectations and abilities because they didn't reach the expectations or the fullness of their abilities. Do they finish worse without Harper? Maybe. Probably. But they've had him all year and it hasn't helped the consensus pick for National League Champs. Blame injuries, blame the manager--the Mets had more than their share of injuries and we've got Terry Collins, so that's a wash. Our bullpen has been--maybe--adequate. That's with injuries, ineffectiveness, and Jenrry Mejia. Wash. And you can plainly see, by contrast with Harper, how much better the Mets are with Cespedes than without him. If the Mets win the division, the difference between the Mets winning and finishing second or third will clearly be Cespedes. Cespedes has been more valuable to the Mets than Harper has been to the Nats. I don't even think its an arguable point. These aren't Mets colored goggles; I'd say the same thing if the roles were reversed. And I looked at (and referenced) the percentage stats--OPS, SLG, OBP, WAR (which I still think is exceedingly flawed as a stat)--and I didn't think they were that far apart as to discount what Yoenis has done. Bryce's OPS is, as I said, insane but it wasn't particularly valuable to his team, if we presume they go on to lose. If the Mets collapse and the Nats win, then it matters. If the Nats lose and the Mets win, then it doesn't. Do the Mets win without Cespedes? I'd say probably not. Do the Nats win *with* Harper? So far, its looking like a no. So who is the more "valuable" player to his team? The Mets went from having the worst offense in baseball to the best. Its impossible to minimize how much of that is Yoenis. I think its also worth noting that the Tigers haven't been as good without him, either.
ReplyDeleteIf you want it to be a stat award, than change the damn name. If not, give it to the player who really IS the most valuable and not a guy who, in spite of awesome numbers, doesn't lift his team beyond mediocrity. How valuable can you be on a team that's basically playing .500 ball?
Playing for a bad team doesnt make a player not valuable. Playing for a good team doesnt make a player valuable(we can see how valuable good players on bad teams were during the trade deadline! They were valued by many contenders to give up valuable prospects!). How the rest of the team does is almost completely out of the hands of any individual player. I'm sure there are some intangibles like Colon mentoring people but who knows how to measure or guess at stuff like that. So naturally yes, the best player is the most valuable. Like I said by your logic you would have to not let voters vote on any player for MVP that isnt on a team that makes the playoffs, its just completely flawed logic. There is no need to change the name of the award, "most valuable" and "best" are considered synonyms to most people in most circumstances. Even on mediocre teams star players drive attendance, ratings, and baseball interest. Dickey was so valuable he netted us d'Arnaud and Thor at the end of the season. You just want to constrain value strictly to if the players team makes the playoffs. No one player is responsible for getting to the playoffs. There are 36 other players on the Mets and managers and coaches.
ReplyDeleteMack - to answer your question, like one of the earlier posters, I'm thrilled with these new Mets already. Who wouldn't be? Whether they die in the NLDS or not this year won't change that. Obviously it would be great to win a championship.
ReplyDeleteI'll say this though - I think the only chance that the Wilpons do the right thing and sign Cespedes is if this team win the WS, or almost win it. Only then will it be unavoidable for them to see the value he has and shell out to keep him. If the team strands in the NLDS or NLCS, I fear they will operate as Business As Usual which mean watching their pennies. Which is generally a good strategy for long-term success. But not in this case.
I think there are special out-of-the-ordinary moments and special people and Yoenis on the Mets is one of them. The Wilpons would be well advised to recognise this, and to find a way to sign him on - for example, they could frontload the contract, given they have a low payroll in the near term, and in order to lessen the burden of the later years when his performance is likely to decline.
Unfortunately the Mets history is littered with examples of the Wilpons' bad baseball judgment so I fear the worst. But if the team can get deep into the WS even they might have to recognise the value he has.
I can't believe my post has come out as negative, given I am ecstatic about this team. Kudos to Sandy and Terry for buliding such a good culture - from Conforto to Uribe to Colon to Granderson to Cuddyer, these are all winners and team personalities. That's why they are doing so well, that, as well as Mr YC.
Cespedes has been spectacular, no question.
ReplyDeleteMy one cautionary comment is that the media -- and writers in general -- tend to simplify complext equations. "This" happened because of "that." The Mets record is X since the day Cespedes arrived. True, but causality is never that simple.
D'Arnaud & Conforto have been huge. Flores came alive. Wright returned. Uribe & Johnson came and changed the tone completely. Clippard plugged a massive hole in the dam.
I don't know if this happens without Cespedes. But he might be getting too much credit for what has been an incredible TEAM effort.
James Preller