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1/31/17
Mack - Kyle Johnson
Here's a great story on the Mets Kyle Johnson and his fight for a fair salary...
http://ftw.usatoday.com/2017/01/minor-league-baseball-pay-fair-labor-standards-act-minimum-wage-lawsuit-kyle-johnson
Reese Kaplan -- What's Gavin Cecchini's MLB Future?
When Sandy Alderson made Gavin Cecchini his 1st round draft pick in 2012 there were some skeptics who were not enamored with the selection. He’s not the type of player who has an outstanding skill that everyone covets. He doesn’t hit the long ball like Giancarlo Stanton. He doesn’t run the bases like Billy Hamilton. He doesn’t field with the aplomb of Ozzie Smith. Yet there was something there that made the Mets use their 12th position in the draft to make him the top pick.
As he began his career in the Mets system, he moved up as you would expect from someone the club is emotionally invested in seeing succeed. However, he didn’t reassure a great many doubters during his initial foray into the professional ranks. Yes, he took quality at-bats and seemed to use the entire field but his pronounced leg kick seemed to hinder his ability to handle better pitching. His age 18 initial trial across two leagues saw him finish with a .240/1/22 slash line. Meh.
He was promoted, of course, and his full season at age 19 in
Brooklyn saw him up the batting average to .273 but his run production was even
worse with no home runs and just 14 RBIs over the course of over 200 at-bats.
In 2014 he played across three levels, reaching as high as
AA, and finally put together a full year’s worth of production. The batting average was nothing impressive at
.247 but he did manage to hit 8 home runs and drive in 56 – somewhat encouraging
numbers from a player in a defensive position not always known for offensive
prowess. It was during this time they
worked on altering his leg kick into more of a toe tap to help him have more
time to get around on faster pitches.
In 2015 as whispers of “bust” regarding his draft status got
louder he finally put it all together. At
AA Binghamton for the entire year he hit an impressive .317 while hitting 7 HRs
and driving in 51. He struck out a mere
55 times while walking 42. He didn’t
show much baserunning speed with just 3 SBs, but his OBP was a nice .377.
Everyone knows that Las Vegas is a hitter’s paradise and as
expected Cecchini responded in kind with a terrific year at the plate. He hit .325 with 8 HRs and 55 RBIs while
still showing that good approach at the plate and excellent bat control. Unfortunately his defense seemed to take a
major step backwards and with uber-prospect Amed Rosario likely playing SS for
the 51s, that will probably push Cecchini to the other side of the diamond at
2B. His route to the majors may be
easier there with Neil Walker playing on a one-year contract and a possible
opening resulting in 2018.
So what kind of player will he become? There are not a lot of high average hitters
who also don’t have another tool. Some
get by on speed, some have outstanding defense.
Others contribute power.
The best I could parallel as an aspirational model for him
was the mostly St. Louis Cardinal (and brief but forgotten NY Met), Tom
Herr. He was a man who once drove in 110
runs while hitting .302 but only driving 8 balls out of the park. For his career he was a .271 hitter who often
walked more than he struck out. He only
hit 28 long balls over a 13 year career, but he was a solid and dependable
player who was a starter for 11 of them.
If Cecchini could replicate Herr’s career then people would likely salute
Sandy Alderson for a good choice.
1/30/17
BREAKING NEWS - P - Anthony Young
Heard very sad news: Former #Mets pitcher Anthony Young has an inoperable brain tumor. Doctors unsure if malignant but cannot reach it.
Mack Ade - Q and A - Wilmer Flores, Sandy's Drafts,
Also at Mack's Mets:
Good morning.
Max asked -
A two part question...
A two part question...
1. Mack, do you think that the fact that Wilmer
Flores didn't agree to arbitration with the Mets could be a sign of his
exiting the team before the season starts?
Mack - Hey Max. Put it this way. Mets players always work this out. I think there has been two players that didn't in
the past 10 years.
Add this to the fact that Sandy Alderson hates when someone doesn't do what he
wants to do and I'm sure Flores' name has quietly been added to the list of
Mets that could be traded before the
season starts.
This whole thing makes little sense to
me. Flores isn't even a starter and he's still being paid seven figures to hit
a ball with a bat.
Is this payback for being traded
earlier? Could be.
I don't see him being around by the end of the season, possibly much sooner.
2. And if Flores is traded, who becomes the second utility infielder?
Mack - Good question.
I guess we are all assuming that T.J. Rivera is one of the utility infielders that will come out of spring training. I mean, the guy's never hit bad since leaving school, hit .333 last year for the Mets in 105-AB and had only three errors in the 222.2 inning he played in the field (.968).
Is that good? Well, it was better than Jose Reyes (527 innings played, 6-E, .960).
Assuming everybody leaves camp in one piece, these two should be your utility infielders. Though originally a shortstop, Reyes played third mostly in 2016 and can play second in a pinch. Rivera can play all three, plus first base.
But what happens when the pins start falling?
Would it be Gavin Cecchini? He did hit .300+ in the past two seasons for Binghamton and Las Vegas, but the only position he has played professionally is shortstop (let's remember... the job of a utility infielder is to play perfect defense in multiple positions while hitting a batting average above two. Playing only short is not what you want here).
Next would be Matt Reynolds. Another shortstop, that has only played 32 games at second and none at third.
So, where do we go from here?
Well, if you try to solve this within the current pipeline, all you have is a 26-year old that has played 258 games at second, 14 at short, and one at third. Not a wiz in the field. but not bad either. And, at least he isn't another shortstop.
Who?
L.J. Mazzilli.
2. And if Flores is traded, who becomes the second utility infielder?
Mack - Good question.
I guess we are all assuming that T.J. Rivera is one of the utility infielders that will come out of spring training. I mean, the guy's never hit bad since leaving school, hit .333 last year for the Mets in 105-AB and had only three errors in the 222.2 inning he played in the field (.968).
Is that good? Well, it was better than Jose Reyes (527 innings played, 6-E, .960).
Assuming everybody leaves camp in one piece, these two should be your utility infielders. Though originally a shortstop, Reyes played third mostly in 2016 and can play second in a pinch. Rivera can play all three, plus first base.
But what happens when the pins start falling?
Would it be Gavin Cecchini? He did hit .300+ in the past two seasons for Binghamton and Las Vegas, but the only position he has played professionally is shortstop (let's remember... the job of a utility infielder is to play perfect defense in multiple positions while hitting a batting average above two. Playing only short is not what you want here).
Next would be Matt Reynolds. Another shortstop, that has only played 32 games at second and none at third.
So, where do we go from here?
Well, if you try to solve this within the current pipeline, all you have is a 26-year old that has played 258 games at second, 14 at short, and one at third. Not a wiz in the field. but not bad either. And, at least he isn't another shortstop.
Who?
L.J. Mazzilli.
Tony N. asked -
I saw you and Adam talking online about the Alderson years and whether or not he has drafted well. You have never been high on his choices. Why?
Mack - (who is Adam?) Simple... do the numbers:
I saw you and Adam talking online about the Alderson years and whether or not he has drafted well. You have never been high on his choices. Why?
Mack - (who is Adam?) Simple... do the numbers:
Let’s review the 6-year Alderman era –
2011
– 51 players drafted – 35 players signed – 1 star (Michael
Fulmer) – 3 developing pros (Brandon Nimmo,
Seth Lugo, Robert
Gsellman)
2012
– 42 players drafted – 21 players signed – 1 developing pro (Tomas Nido)
2013
– 41 players drafted – 27 players signed – 1 developing pro (Dominic Smith)
2014
– 39 players drafted – 11 players signed – 1 developing pro (Michael Conforto)
2015
– 39 players drafted – 18 players unsigned – too soon to target developing pros
2016
– 41 players drafted – 14 players unsigned – too soon to target developing pros
So what we have is seven 'potential' future stars on this team... out of 253 draft picks... the best of which is now on another team... and the rest show very little chance of getting someday to Cooperstown.
Barbara asked -
Mack, I saw an article online this week that said that the Mets have one of the most talented starting rotation plus one of the cheapest. When does that start to turn against us and who do you see the first to leave, and his replacement?
Mack - Interesting question.
First, let's assume the following five pitchers will be the Mets rotation, followed by the year they become a free agent -
Matt Harvey - 2019
Jacob deGrom - 2021
Noah Syndergaard - 2022
Zack Wheeler - 2020
Steven Matz - 2022
Pretty exciting, huh?
It's obvious that Harvey will be the first to leave this team. I see zero chance of him remaining a Met past 2019. Frankly, I see him gone before this.
I break down replacements into two categories... one, guys that will fill in during the 2017 and 2018 season if injuries come up, someone listed above is traded, or someone comes up short... they, in my opinion would be either Robert Gsellman or Seth Lugo.
Then, in 2020, I look for Justin Dunn, or Anthony Kay to step up and earn their stripes after being drafted in the first round last season out of college.
So what we have is seven 'potential' future stars on this team... out of 253 draft picks... the best of which is now on another team... and the rest show very little chance of getting someday to Cooperstown.
Barbara asked -
Mack, I saw an article online this week that said that the Mets have one of the most talented starting rotation plus one of the cheapest. When does that start to turn against us and who do you see the first to leave, and his replacement?
Mack - Interesting question.
First, let's assume the following five pitchers will be the Mets rotation, followed by the year they become a free agent -
Matt Harvey - 2019
Jacob deGrom - 2021
Noah Syndergaard - 2022
Zack Wheeler - 2020
Steven Matz - 2022
Pretty exciting, huh?
It's obvious that Harvey will be the first to leave this team. I see zero chance of him remaining a Met past 2019. Frankly, I see him gone before this.
I break down replacements into two categories... one, guys that will fill in during the 2017 and 2018 season if injuries come up, someone listed above is traded, or someone comes up short... they, in my opinion would be either Robert Gsellman or Seth Lugo.
Then, in 2020, I look for Justin Dunn, or Anthony Kay to step up and earn their stripes after being drafted in the first round last season out of college.
1/29/17
BREAKING NEWS - Mets Outfield Update per MLBTR
Mets prepared to entire 2017 with Jay Bruce on their roster: The Mets are loaded with starting-caliber corner outfielders – Yoenis Cespedes, Curtis Granderson, Michael Conforto and Bruce – and that’s likely to remain the case when the season begins. General manager Sandy Alderson has tried to unload Bruce this offseason, but those attempts have gone for naught. As a result, the team informed Bruce that he’ll open the season as its right fielder. While the Mets could have cut the cord on Bruce in November, their decision to exercise his $13MM option came amid uncertainty surrounding Cespedes, who was unsigned at the time.
www.mlbtr.com
Mack - No new news here, but there sure seems to be an awful lot of updates lately saying that Bruce will remain a Met.
Mack Ade – What If? (son of Whaddya think?
Good morning.
I was thinking about this so I thought I’d create a
post on this subject and ask all of you for your opinion on the subject.
We all know how this team has been decimated over the
last few years with injuries, and yet, we still got to the playoffs the past
two seasons. It’s impossible to imagine how have we would have gone the last
two years if we had a healthy third baseman plus the dream team rotation.
That being said, let’s look at some scenarios and I
want to ask you want you think this team should do if injuries set in again.
1. The outfield
– right now, it looks like that even the teams in Korea want nothing to do with
Jay Bruce. Amazing. The guy comes to town
leading the league in runs batted in. He also runs faster than Brandon Nimmo. Now, he’s radioactive. So, it looks
like the Mets will go to camp with these two guys, Juan
Lagares, Curtis Granderson, Michael Conforto, and Juan
Lagares fighting it out for five outfield slots in the opening day
clubhouse… Question: Who is the odd man
out and will be shipped out to Las Vegas for the opening day there? And the
second part of the question… it’s obvious that the ‘odd man out’ in the first
part of this question would be the first outfielder called up if there was an
injury to one of these guys already in Queens… but what if a second outfielder
goes down? What do we do then?
2. Third Base –
It’s just a matter of time, right? We’re going to be looking for a new third
baseman to either fill in for the days lost while David
Wright rests, or the rest of the season after Wright goes down for maybe
the last time. So the question becomes…who’s the next Mets third baseman? Wilmer Flores? T.J.? Jose
Reyes? Or, do you move Neil Walker over
from second and put either Flores or Rivera there?
3. Starters –
We all know the initial plan… because three starters are coming to camp coming
off surgery, the team will most probably start the season with a 6-man
rotation. This will consist six of the following seven pitchers: Noah Syndergaard, Jacob deGrom,
Matt Harvey, Steven Matz,
Robert Gsellman, Seth
Lugo, and Zack Wheeler. Who starts the
season off in Vegas? And what happens if two starters aren’t ready. Who’s next
up? Gabriel Ynoa? Sean
Gilmartin? Tyler Pill? Or a longshot like
P.J. Conlon?
4. Pen – We
know the team is a long way away from firming up their opening day pen. Jeurys Familia will probably be in anger management
classes… Addison Reed and Hansel Robles seems to be locked in… and Josh Edgin and Josh Smoker probably
have the best odds to make it… but then what? Conlon (Adam Rubin is reporting
that the Mets are considering using the lefty Conlon out of the opening day
pen)? Kevin McGowan? Rafael
Montero? Paul Sewald? Adam Wilk (who the heck is Adam Wilk)?
5. First Base –
We know we’re going to have to live with Lucas Duda’s highs
and lows during the season, but what if his back acts up again and he goes on
the disabled list for the remainder of the season again. What do we do then? Do
we fill in with T.J. Rivera, try to find another
James Loney for a buck, or rush Dominic Smith up the pipeline?
6. Shortstop –
What if Astrubel Cabrera goes down? Do you play
either Rivera or Reyes here or is time to turn this position over to Amed Rosario?
BREAKING NEWS - LHRP - Jerry Blevens
Andy Martino Retweeted Ken Rosenthal
If Blevins is comfortable with 2 years, as suggested here, Mets are too, per sources.
Reese Kaplan -- Fake News & Alternative Facts
A recent article on the “official” blog of the New York Mets pointed
out the fact that Skipper Terry Collins is closing in on some very noteworthy
achievements. With another contending season
he will become the 2nd winningest manager in Mets history,
surpassing Bobby Valentine. He will have
managed longer than anyone else and he has the chance to be the first to
achieve three straight post-season appearances.
The conclusion, therefore, was that Terry Collins’ legacy will be that
of a winner.
Really?
Terry Collins long ago was a winner when he was in
charge of the Houston Astros. In fact,
he finished with a statistically winning record here in my home state with a
career mark of 224-197. That’s a
positive winning percentage of .532 yet after three consecutive 2nd
place finishes the Astros had seen enough and fired him. (Statistical footnote – the following year
Larry Dierker took over and took the Astros to three straight 1st
place finishes. But no…the manager doesn’t
make a difference according to the apologists…)
The braintrust for southern California’s AL team decided
that the fiery Collins was just what they needed to propel themselves back to
the postseason as the newly minted Anaheim Angels in 1997. Underachieving as usual, he led them to two
straight 2nd place finishes and then a 4th place
finish. It was while he was mired 28
games out of 1st and his players appealing directly to the front
office to can him that Terry Collins resigned.
His ending numbers in Anaheim were not pretty – a .481 winning
percentage over three years, but the club knew it had to change direction. (Sandy Alderson, by contrast, did not feel
compelled to improve the team the way Bill Bavasi did. Similar footnote – shortly after his
departure the Angels went onto win 1st place 5 out of 6 consecutive years.)
For the next seven years no one in baseball would
give Terry Collins a job but he bounced back to crash and burn in Japan and
then in China. He eventually landed as
manager of the Duluth Huskies of the Northwest League where he shepherded them
to a 7th place finish. He had
pretty much hit rock bottom when the Mets decided that perhaps managing wasn’t
his best role. They offered him a job as
a roving minor league instructor and he spent 2010 doing just that.
Inexplicably in 2011 when Sandy Alderson took over
he turned to the man with the very checkered record who’d never won anything to
be the face of the franchise as it tried to emerge from the Madoff madness. The old stressed out, fiery Collins was long
gone and replaced with a perplexed looking but mellower guy who routinely made
head scratching decisions, yet the GM stuck with him. By 2015 he (and mostly Yoenis Cespedes) got
the Mets into the World Series and many felt vindicated for their long and
tried patience with the man. His
subsequent follow up to the post season in 2016 reinforced the apologists’
mantra that given the horses he was the right jockey.
Of course, all those years that Sparky Anderson was
winning with the Big Red Machine the conventional wisdom was that a monkey could
finish in first place with that kind of lineup.
It seems that the test of a good manager is one who can motivate his
team to perform at an elite level even when the talent was not quite there. On that front Terry Collins has not
succeeded.
Take, for example, some of the players who performed
under Terry Collins and then witness how they did when they left. Justin Turner and Daniel Murphy are the two
most glaring examples. However, the flip
side also must be considered. There are
players he kept trotting out there again and again when alternatives existed
until eventually the GM relieved him of the opportunity to do so. They’re no longer in the major leagues –
Ruben Tejada, Eric Young and Eric Campbell immediately spring to mind.
Put
another way, some people felt that Don Sutton's induction into the Hall of Fame
was a travesty because he was never even in the conversation as one of the best
pitchers of his era. The term "compiler" was coined to describe
someone who, through longevity and modest talent, aggregated large enough
totals that people who didn't watch him on a day-in, day-out basis might
misread as superstar. He won 20 games but once in his long career and won
one ERA title. He was not going to hurt you but to put him in the same
breath as people like Tom Seaver or Steve Carlton is heresy.
So
too, it is to call Terry Collins "good" on the basis of simply having
been around and owning a career losing record as the Mets manager. For
his entire career he sits at exactly .500 -- the very definition of mediocre.
Why Sandy Alderson dragged him out of obscurity and thrust him into the
dugout with that kind of track record is anyone's guess, but he's certainly not
done anything to distinguish himself. Even when he improbably took a team
to the World Series (and lost in embarrassing fashion) he didn't get the
Manager of the Year award from his peers. In fact, two guys who didn't even make it to the World Series finished ahead of him.
To hear some tell it, he deserves accolades for what
he’s accomplished. To me, he’s Milton, the beleaguered and put upon guy with the red stapler from “Office
Space” who keeps getting shuffled around because no one has the heart to tell
him he’s no longer relevant or productive.
Just as Sandy Alderson has done
nothing to improve the roster, he’s willingly embraced a sub-optimal manager
and has no rings to show for his decision and loyalty.
1/27/17
Richard Herr - So Whaddya Think - 13
0
“So whaddya think?”
“Whaddya mean? What do I think?”
“Whaddya think about the Mets this winter?
“Nothing.”
“Huh?”
“Nothing.”
“Whaddya mean, nothing?”
“Just that, nothing. Zip. Zero. Zilch. Goose
egg. Nada. A big, long string of nothing.”
“What you’re saying to me is non-sense.”
“Cute.”
“I have my moments. To continue, nothing you
make is sense.”
“I think nothing about the Mets because they
are doing nothing. They are sitting around making a grand total of no action.
So there ain’t nothing to think about.”
“They’ve got have their reasons.”
“I thought that too. I said it was the
holidays. They were off playing Santa Claus, or something like that. I figured
it’s New Years. They’re at the gym fulfilling their resolutions. I figured it’s
January. It’s too cold to make a deal. I’m running out of reasons.”
“There’s gotta be something.”
“I’ll tell you what. I’m going to stand up here
and give you my Mets report.”
“Careful. Do you think your heart can stand
it?”
“Okay, here’s my Mets report. This is just
in. I have a man who is right down there on the field at Citi Field. He’s
giving me this exclusive report that grass is actually growing there.”
“Wait a minute, I’ve gotta take notes.”
“I’ve also got a rep who is a fly on the wall
up in the executive offices. He’s telling me that most definitely the paint on
that wall is actually drying.”
“You’re scooping every reporter in town.”
“Here’s another one from my man hanging out
near the water cooler that is in the kitchen. He says there is some water there
that he thinks is, in the very near future, just about to boil.”
“Exciting stuff.”
“I don’t know what else I can say. There ain’t
nothing happening with the Mets. Maybe the problem really was Christmas. The
holiday spirit just stuck. Sandy’s sitting around doing nothing but having a
Christmas carol running through his head.”
“What one’s that?”
“Silent Night.”
Whenever Richard Herr isn’t solving all the
Mets’ problems, he spends his time writing humorous science fiction novels.
You can see his books at https://www.amazon.com/Richard-Herr/e/B00J5XBKX4.
Richard Herr - So Whaddya Think? - v12.5
No
“So whaddya think?”
“Whaddya mean? What do I think?”
“Whaddya think about the press?”
“Did you see where Sandy said he ain’t
trading Bruce but starting him in right?”
“Yeah.”
“Did you notice that the press didn’t jump up
and applaud Sandy for settling that issue? Instead they started bitching about
there ain’t no place for Conforto to play.
Whenever Richard Herr isn’t solving all the
Mets’ problems, he spends his time writing humorous science fiction novels.
You can see his books at https://www.amazon.com/Richard-Herr/e/B00J5XBKX4.
1/26/17
Reese Kaplan -- AAA All Star Game in El Paso in 2019
With luck, I'll be there first hand to report on the best of the best appearing there -- by then perhaps guys like Justin Dnnn and Thomas Szapucki will be representing the Mets.
Mack Ade - Steven Matz
Good morning.
Steven Matz always seems to be an afterthought when
the subject of the Mets starting rotation comes up, even though he probably
would qualify to be, at least, the SP2 on half the clubs in the league.
The Melville (L.I.) High School lefty was drafted with
the Mets first pick in the 2009 draft, which actually was the 72nd
overall pick coming in the 2nd round. His 4-year minor league record
produced a stat line of 25-20, 2.24, 1.14, 381-IP, 393-K. This has been
followed with 28 starts for the Mets in the past two seasons, that has produced
a 13-8 record with a 3.16-ERA. Also impressive is his 8.73/K-9 coupled with a
2.11/BB-9.
Matz hasn’t been healthy throughout his Mets career.
It took him over two years to even pitch a pitch and he finished last season on
the disabled list as well, but reports from Florida is that he’s now 100% and
ready to go for the 2017 season.
Fellow Mack’s Mets writer Reese
Kaplan has his own spin on Matz –
Steve Matz has the
potential to be a dominant starter in the major leagues. I personally witnessed him throwing in El
Paso against the eventual PCL champion Chihuahuas and he made them look
silly. For a tall guy with a small frame
he gets the ball to the plate with excellent velocity and tremendous
movement.
Control is something of an
issue for him, with an average of over 3 walks per 9 innings. While that's not horrible, it bears
watching. He's done a great job keeping
hitters from making strong contact and has produced some sparkling ERAs
throughout his career.
Unfortunately, health has
always been a problem for him, both at the minor league level and again now in
the majors. Whether it's the inevitable Tommy
John surgery, he's also dealt with abdominal issues and a bone
spur requiring surgery as well. He calls
to mind other highly talented pitchers like Erik Bedard, Mark Prior and
Steve Avery who never seemed to be able to get the
30+ starts year in and year out required by a MLB pitcher.
I happen to think that Matz has us right where he wants us to be. No one writes stories about him becoming the ace of this staff so he can just keep on doing what he does best...
I look for continued numbers like he has produced over the past two seasons.
Original
Mack’s Mets writer (who is also returning to the site this month, David Rubin, had this to say –
It's hard to say that "player
X" is going to be the "difference-maker" in a rotation,
especially when that player has only been a pro for a brief time. It's even
harder to say that a pitcher who has had a long history of injuries throughout
the minor leagues and during his short time in the majors is going to be a
"difference – maker"- and yet, potentially, that is what I believe
Steven Matz is going to be for the 2017 New York Mets. I really think that 2017
is the year when he stays healthy for an entire season and, as the only lefty
in the rotation, he is going to be particularly important against teams like
the Washington Nationals.
His stuff makes him a lethal weapon; The
fact that he is left-handed makes him a rare one. I am predicting he will go 16
- 8 with a 2.73 ERA, and I think he is going to be a dominating part of the
rotation for the next three years at the very least. Lefties who are starters
and throw heat at 95mph and above are as rare as the Brewers winning a World
Series. Now as long as the boys from Milwaukee don't pull the worlds biggest
miracle out of their New Era caps, Mark me down as predicting Matz for 4
straight fantastic seasons!
I happen to think that Matz has us right where he wants us to be. No one writes stories about him becoming the ace of this staff so he can just keep on doing what he does best...
I look for continued numbers like he has produced over the past two seasons.
1/25/17
Richard Jones - 2017 Projections for the Mets Starting Pitchers
I saw some 2017 projections for the Mets starters recently. They made no sense to me. There's very little science that you can put into projections like that. Bill James did publish some work that shows how players progress and regress during their careers. He has thousands of players stats to work with. You can see players as a whole progressing into their early thirties before they begin a downward curve of regression. There are players who don't fit the normal curve, like Barry Bonds who had his best seasons when he was in his late thirties and early forties. Then there are individual circumstances such as injuries and recovering from a year plagued by injury.
If you're going by stats alone each Met pitcher should have a slightly better year than he had in 2016. Every starting Met pitcher is still at an age when you would expect a player to progress. Many of the projections I have seen for Noah Syndergaard show a regression from the 2016 season. Most of these actually show an increase in innings which would suggest that the predicted regression is not caused by health issues. Predicting Syndergaard is healthy for 2017 and regresses is non-sense. There is absolutely no data to back that. To predict health issues would require information that fans like myself and like most professional writers have no access to.
My projections below are based on 5% stats and science and 95% my gut feeling. I don't believe anyone else is capable of doing any better unless you have access to their medical records. So don't take my projections or anyones elses serious. It's just for fun. We can comeback and revisit these in October.
I'm going to start with Matt Harvey. I saw the very short video he posted. He looked like he is in the best shape of his career. I feel he is 100% healthy and extremely motivated. I'm predicting a return to dominance and the Mets ace.
Next is Noah Syndergaard. I expect him to stay healthy. I believe his size and easy mechanics will keep him that way. I don't see any reason not to expect him to build off of last year.
Jacob deGrom returns to form. Before his injury he had been the Mets most consistant starter over the last 2 and a half seasons. He is the easiest to predict.
Matz is much more difficult to predict. He hasn't been able to put together a real long string of healthy games. I was real aggressive on my predictions for Harvey. I'm being more conservative with Matz. If he stays and pitches healthy he should perform better but that's a big if.
Wheeler is another difficult if not impossible prediction. How will the Mets use him? Will he be healthy? Even when he did start and was healthy he never came near fulfilling his potential. I always thought Mike Pelfrey had great stuff when he was with the Mets. He never could figure it out. Wheeler's stuff is even better but will he figure it out. He could easily put the numbers up that deGrom does. The question is will he?
I don't believe the Mets will go to a full 6 man rotation but I do believe they will limit the innings of several of their starters. Having a 6th starter like Gsellman will make that easy. I still believe he will get 20 to 25 start even if the other 5 stay healthy. They can start Wheeler in the bullpen or give him an extended spring traing. They can take turns shutting down Harvey, Matz, deGrom, and Wheeler to limit their innings. I don't think there will be an issue getting him starts. I believe he was the real deal last year.
BREAKING NEWS - Las Vegas 51s
The Mets AAA franchise, the Las Vegas 51st, could be getting a new stadium sometime in the next couple of years.
There are reports that talks are underway with the Howard Hughes Corporation to donate the land that would be needed to build a stadium that would house the new NHL franchise that is coming to town, a possible NFL team, and the Mets affiliate.
It would be next door to the new NHL practive facility in Summerlin.
Mack Ade – Mack’s Mets News – Cornish, Thole, Montgomery, Carlyle, Henderson
Good morning.
First, some internal stuff –
I want to remind everyone reading this
that we are always in need of Mack’s Mets writers. The process is simple… we
let you into the site, you write what you want to write (we do not control
content), you let me know when it is ready, and I schedule it. If you are
interested, email me at: macksmets@gmail.com and we’ll go from there. We can then
hook up on the telephone (if necessary) to discuss any details. The more writers we have, with different opinions regarding this team, just makes for a better site.
One of the original writers here at Mack's Mets has returned! Jack Flynn has re-signed and you'll see his first thoughts on the upcoming Addison Reed post next week.
One of the original writers here at Mack's Mets has returned! Jack Flynn has re-signed and you'll see his first thoughts on the upcoming Addison Reed post next week.
I ask all of you to say some prayers for
one of my friends, and fellow Mets blogger, John Delcos
(http://www.newyorkmetsreport.com/), who has
been going through various medical procedures that have resulted since the
horrific home based accident he went through in March 2104, that have left him
in a wheelchair. I kid John that, since then, I have now become the second most
screwed up Mets writer on the web. Please light a candle and say a prayer for
my good friend.
Some ‘minor’ news this month –
Brooklyn Cyclone relief pitcher, Gary Cornish, was busted for amphetamine usage and was
suspended for 50 games. Cornish was a 2016 19th round pick out of the
University of San Diego, where he started 18 games last season (5-3, 4.57,
1.33, 8.93-K/9). Nothing really special, right? Well, then he got to Brooklyn
and pitched out of the pen for 14 more games and produced an incredible stat
line of 0-0, 2.16, 1.08, and a Jack Leatherich-ish
15.84 K/9. You would think this kid was on drugs, right?
I asked 'Brooklyn Cowbell Guy', a mainstay at Cyclones home games about Cornish and he told me -
"It was hard to observe him this year. The Mets had him on a limit as
to how many pitches he would throw. He did seem consistent in his roles
out of the pen."
I asked 'Brooklyn Cowbell Guy', a mainstay at Cyclones home games about Cornish and he told me -
"It was hard to observe him this year. The Mets had him on a limit as
to how many pitches he would throw. He did seem consistent in his roles
out of the pen."
Picture by Mack Ade |
Ex-Mets catcher Josh
Thole signed a minor league deal with the Arizona Diamondbacks. His
ability to catch and control a knuckleball made him the catcher of choice
whenever the Mets or Toronto pitched R.A. Dickey,
but that all went away when Dickey inked a deal with the Braves and exposed
Thole’s .180/.253/.228 stat line over the past two seasons.
The Mets announced that they released
once projected star starter and now fallen reliever, Christian
Montgomery. Montgomery was not expected to sign coming out of high
school, but changed his mind and inked a deal with the Mets. I thought this
would pay off in spades, but, once again, I was wrong. The Baseball Draft
Report https://baseballdraftreport.com/tag/christian-montgomery/ had their
first warning about Montgomery back in December 2011 –
Lawrence
HS (IN) RHP Christian Montgomery (Round 11) formed a darn good one-two punch
with incoming Louisville freshman RHP Jared Ruxer in
high school. With Montgomery it all comes down to which version of the hefty
righthander you’re going to get. The Mets are obviously banking on the showcase
circuit version of Montgomery showing up to instructs (see below to read what
his stuff was like then) next season. If his stuff stays down, then we might
have to acknowledge the reality that pitchers don’t always follow a typical
developmental path; sometimes guys peak as high school juniors, hard as it is
to admit.
Simply put, Montgomery just couldn’t
stay away from recreational drugs, which is a big no-no in the Alderson
organization. He had two ‘incidents’ before finally putting up some decent
numbers last year for A-Columbia (19-G, 1-1, 3.34, 13.65-K/9), but something
else must have happened to finally pull the plug here.
The Los Angeles Angels announced that
former Mets pitcher, Buddy Carlyle, will be
their AA pitching coach. Carlyle pitched part of nine seasons in the majors,
beginning with the San Diego Padres in 199. His last stint, in 2015, was with
the Mets In between, a ton of minor league assignments and two trips to Japan,
but the remarkable thing was the fact that this guy survived this long in the
majors… 150-G, 27-starts… with a career 5.15-ERA.
Former Mets relief pitcher, Jim Henderson, signed a minor league deal with the
Cubs. Henderson pitched in 44 games last season for the Mets and produced a
4.37-ERA. The Mets had no plans on keeping him for next season so he looked for
work elsewhere. His 4-year major league stat line is 155-G, 10-11, 3.68, 1.27.