Tom Brennan - Mets Rule 5 Draft Perspective

Certain minor league players each year are eligible for the Rule 5 draft.  Here is a synopsized version of what I read about Rule 5 guidelines in baseballreference.com:

The Rule 5 Draft is held annually during baseball's Winter Meetings (in December).  Teams must file a 40-man roster with the league office by November 20. 

Any player who fits all of the criteria below is eligible for the Rule 5 Draft:

• Not on 40 man roster.
• In minor leagues at least 4 years if signed after age 19.
• In minor leagues at least 5 years if signed before age 19.

The cost of drafting a player is $100,000 as of 2016. A drafted player must remain on the drafting team's 25-man roster the entire first season he is with the drafting club.

At least 90 days of that 1st season must be maintained at "active status" (not on disabled list). If a player isn't active for 90 days in that 1st year due to a legitimate extended injury, whatever remains of the 90 day obligation MUST be met from the beginning of the following year, his 2nd season with the drafting club.

To be sent to the minors in that 1st year (or a 2nd season extension, due to a legitimate extended injury in the 1st year), the player drafted under Rule 5 must be offered back to the club from which he had been drafted for a $50,000 waiver fee. Should the team from which the draftee was taken not accept him back, it is the same as releasing the drafted player from that team's interest, and the Rule 5 obligations of the drafting team cease upon that release.

Drafting teams could return another player in lieu of the waiver fee if they wish to keep the drafted player in their organization, but send him to the minor leagues during that 1st year's obligation. This effectively converts the acquisition of the Rule 5 eligible player into a trade, rather than continuing the Rule 5 obligations of the drafting team.

Minor league teams can also participate in the draft. AAA teams can draft any player eligible from AA for $24,000. Players chosen in the minor league part of the draft do not need to return to the original teams for any reason. 

TPGMets put out a list of players eligible for the Rule 5 draft that are not already on the 40 man roster. 

In my analysis below, I excluded all guys from rookie ball teams, because no team would draft a 4 or 5 year guy from that level of ball for obvious reasons.  So all would have no need to be protected, and few if any will ever make the Mets someday.

Using that accordingly truncated list, assuming its accuracy (I did add Phil Evans to it), I tried to look at it from a Mets executive's viewpoint:

1) Do I think the player will eventually make the majors or not?  That could include players projecting anywhere from a long career to a cup of coffee in the bigs, like Tyler Pill got this year.

2) Do I want to protect those who I think will make the majors eventually?  Since teams have to keep any drafted Rule 5 player for the full season or return him, if I felt that no team would want to do that either because of a guy's limited future big league impact or their being too far from the big leagues to really be ready in 2018, I indicated that they should not be added to the 40 man roster.  A good example is Jeff McNeil, who might be a good utility guy or possible position player in the bigs down the road, but who missed so much time this year and last that it is extremely unlikely another team would draft him.

Anyway, here is my list with my rationale in columns 2 thru 4, showing 8 guys I would want to protect (if we could protect 8):

Rule 5 Eligible List (List Source: TPGMets)

I overlooked a few guys as I was making the list up. But I did not want to mess with my tricky table! So here they are!  All 3 MIGHT be minor league free agents, though, not subject to the Rule 5 draft, due to service time.

One is lefty Al Baldonado, pitching since 2010. Struggling in Vegas, he nonetheless ought to be at least a marginal big league relief arm. Some other team MIGHT decide to draft him.  Another is Xorge Carillo, Vegas catcher.  He is hitting decently, in his 7th season, terrible (10 of 68) at throwing out runners.   Lastly, Hobie's son in law Victor Cruzado, who is having an OK season hitting in Vegas.  Lose with them or without them!

	MLB Future?	Protect?	Rationale
AAA Vegas 51s
Phil Evans	Yes	Yes	AA batting champ the last 2 months has hit .330/.395/.520 in AAA.
Jayce Boyd	Maybe	No	Iffy possible big leaguer
Jamie Callahan	Yes	Yes	Legit bullpen arm
Jeff McNeil	Maybe	No	Not yet good enough to be drafted
David Roseboom	Maybe	No	Injury and poor 2017 would not yet interest other clubs
Kelly Secrest	Maybe	No	Not good enough now
Logan Taylor	Maybe	No	Not good enough now
Jhoan Urena	Yes	Yes	Good enough to get drafted
AA Bing. Ponies
Tyler Bashlor	Yes	Yes	Lethal reliever - could get drafted
Patrick Biondi	No	No	Not good enough
Luis Guillorme	Yes	Yes	Some team would pick him
Ricky Knapp	Maybe	No	Borderline guy
L.J. Mazzilli	Unlikely	No	Won’t get selected
Tyler Moore	No	No	Not good enough
Matt Oberste	Maybe	No	Iffy big leaguer
Corey Oswalt	Yes	Yes	Potential #4 starter
Tim Peterson	Yes	Maybe	Iffy that he would get picked; similar skills to Paul Sewald
Colton Plaia	No	No	Not good enough
Champ Stuart	Maybe	No	Iffy big leaguer despite his speed
Adonis Uceta	Yes	Yes	Could get drafted
A: St. Lucie Mets
Gerson Bautista	Yes	Yes	100 MPH pen arm would get picked
Andrew Church	Maybe	No	Borderline at best
Mike Gibbons	No	No	Not good enough
Johnny Magliozzi	No	No	Too many relievers ahead of him
John Mora	Maybe	No	Iffy big leaguer
Alex Palsha	Maybe	No	Too many relievers ahead of him
Josh Prevost	No	No	Not good enough
Scarlyn Reyes	No	No	Not good enough
Enmanuel Zabala	No	No	Not good enough
A Col. Fireflies
Matt Blackham	Yes	Maybe	Terrific year: a team could draft him, but he is 4 levels below the major leagues, so it is unlikely
Brandon Brosher	No	No	Not good enough
Luis Carpio	Maybe	No	Not close enough
Cameron Griffin	No	No	Not good enough
Jose C. Medina	No	No	Not good enough
Darwin Ramos	No	No	Not good enough
Ali Sanchez	Maybe	No	Not enuf experience
Blake Taylor	No	No	Not good enough

Tim Tebow, having just one year's experience, won't be subject to Rule 5, thankfully :)