Tom Brennan - MY METS PROSPECTS: #21 GERSON BAUTISTA
Some hard throwers take time to tame the control.
Hall of Famers Randy Johnson and former Met Nolan Ryan are two of them. They did OK, I think.
Some blazer guys always stay wild. But when it finally clicks for these guys, watch out.
Gerson Bautista was clocked at 101 this season, so he qualifies as a bona fide flamethrower. Before the Mets acquired him in the Addison Reed trade from the Bosox, Bautista's walk on song must have been Wild Thing....28 walks in 53 innings in 2017 pre-trade. In fact, if I just had his career pre-trade stats to go by, he'd be a lot lower than my #22 prospect.
Post-trade with the St Lucie Mets, though, someone must have whispered in his ear about the advantages of throwing strikes. STRIKES...ARE...GOOD.
So, in 14.1 post-trade innings, the 6-2, 170 pound 22 year old fanned 20 while walking just 3, and had a 1.26 ERA, while going 5 for 5 in saves. VERY nice.
He may have been one of the least advanced of the several relievers the Mets got in their salary dump trades, but he gave strong hints that he could be rapidly turning the corner.
Jeurys Familia was quite mediocre in the minors, but suddenly leapt forward. The hard throwing Familia had a few good seasons in the minors, but a few stinkers too, like going 6-9, 5.58 in 2010, and 9-9, 4.73 with Buffalo in 2012 in the non-PCL AAA, in both seasons having an inflated WHIP of 1.59. And then became a great MLB reliever (when healthy).
Similarly I am thinking Bautista will go from an overall average season in 2017 to an eye-popping season in 2018.
Major league teams are gravitating more and more to high velocity relievers, so Gerson Bautista fits the bill...if he progresses, as I believe he will. I believe he could progress as rapidly as his fastball in 2018.
We need a Fantastic Four bullpen - this guy can be the Human Torch.
ReplyDeleteGood morning, Tom.
ReplyDeleteI have not warmed up on most of the relievers Sandy traded for in August and September.
I love this guys speed, but I want to see more before he crashes my Top 18.
Mack, I definitely took a flyer on Gerson at # 21 - small stretch of St Lucie success...I just have this feeling, though, that he will break out.
ReplyDeleteTyler Bashlor is still my favorite prospect reliever. I love Ks - and he provides lots of them KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK.
Matt Blackham - I was hesitant to have him higher than I did (a few picks above # 21 Gerson) because, despite a spectacular, K-filled last few months by Matt (27 innings, 39 Ks, 12 hits, no earned runs), he has not done it above Columbia yet. But he is one that I am very interested in seeing the progress of in 2018.
Tom -
ReplyDeleteI've always been tough on relievers when it comes to ranking them as prospects. In my book, if they were top pitchers, they would be starting.
Right now, I only have one in my Top 18 and that is Justin Dunn, who could go either way in 2018.
I mean two... forgot I had Drew Smith at #11
ReplyDeleteI'm very surprised Smith didn't get a look in September. In three seasons he has posted a WHIP under 1.00, over 10 Ks per 9 IP and a 2.38 ERA. He is the only reliever who appears to have solid numbers of any acquired.
ReplyDeleteRegarding Bautista, let's hope he's more Aroldis Chapman and less Jack Leathersich.
Reese, I believe it would have been a 40-man roster problem. He doesn’t need to be protected, but putting him on the 40-man would have been losing an extra player this December.
ReplyDeleteMack, I see your point - you could well be right, but I hope you are wrong.
ReplyDeleteReese - Smith not getting called up was a puzzle to me, too...but go easy on Leathersich - the now-Pittsburgh Pirate did the following in AAA from June on: 33 IP, 12 H, 2 ER, 56 Ks (whoosh!), then for the Pirates he went 6 outings, 4.1 IP, no runs and 6 Ks. Maybe he is finally a bona fide major league pen arm.
Reese, maybe with Big Dom Smith here, there wasn't enough room for two Smiths in this one horse town.
ReplyDeleteThere would be if Dom can lay off the Mickey-D's.
ReplyDeleteThis website recommends a diet of Big Macks to all players
ReplyDelete