Reese Kaplan -- Gambling on the Rule V Draft

While a great many of us think we know a lot more about how to run a successful baseball franchise than do the people who are being paid to do so, the fact is that there are some difficult choices that will always leave the decisionmaker open to second guessing.  On Monday was one of those occasions when you watched the Mets decide who to retain on the 40-man roster, who to protect from the upcoming Rule V draft and who not to protect.  With a precious five spots available on the roster the Mets chose to shield just four from being exposed to changing teams. 

On the surface, that was a little surprising since in the lower minors the Mets have some talent that was worthy of consideration such as Adonis Uceta.  The calculated risk is that players who have not been above the A-ball level would likely not be picked by another club as it is a reasonable expectation they would not last the entire season on the receiving club’s major league roster. 

Of course, the flip side to that seemingly logical argument is that they chose to give one of those 40-man roster spots to A-ball hurler Gershon Bautista.  Here I think there was more afoot, primarily not wanting to wind up with egg on your face by losing a guy who put up some pretty gaudy numbers after coming over from the Red Sox as part of the Addison Reed deal. 

Tyler Bashlor is a bit more understandable as he did actually spend some time in Binghamton and is two years older and ostensibly more experienced than Bautista.  He also had a superior season overall, so there are no arguments from anyone for choosing to protect him.

Luis Guillorme has drawn parallels to Rey Ordonez for his magical glove.  He did hit well in the Arizona Fall League -- .289 to be precise -- which is actually right on par with his minor league career average of .285.  The problem with his game has been his anemic ability to drive the ball.  He has just 2 home runs in over 2000 plate appearances.  He had one outlier year in 2015 for Savannah when he stole 18 bases, but he has been at 6 or fewer in every other season.  As a comparison, Ordonez hit just .255 in the minors so perhaps there is a little more potential for a solid career.  Ordonez won 3 straight Gold Gloves and lasted 9 seasons.  I cruelly compared him to Ruben Tejada who was a .273 minor league hitter who, like Guillorme, stole some bases once upon a time but then seemingly gave up that part of his game.  He did manage to club 23 home runs over 2500 minor league plate appearances, so he was Ruthian by comparison to Guillorme.  Still, I can understand the logic of having a potential Gold Glove fielder who can offensively keep his head above water as a potential player in the future or a trade chip down the road.

It also makes perfect sense to protect your minor league pitcher of the year, Corey Oswalt, who put together a sensational season for Binghamton.  When you turn in an entire season with an ERA of just 2.28 that’s a no-brainer.

However, for a club that is seemingly forever pinching pennies, it would seem a good way to economize for the future and to build up your limited arsenal of trade chips would be to protect people who MIGHT be part of a long term solution rather than hanging onto those folks who have already shown that they are likely not. 

Towards that end, would outrighting Matt Reynolds or Josh Smoker or some others on the bubble have been a smarter decision?  That way even if an Ucetas or a Mickey Jannis don’t factor into your future plans in Queens, they’d still be guaranteed to be in the fold for trades down the road. 

Well, there is a silver lining to this puzzling strategy.  The Mets left one 40-man roster spot open.  That means either they could be scrap heap shopping when the Rule V draft occurs much like they did when they picked Sean Gilmartin a few years ago and were rewarded with a season of 50 game appearances and a 2.67 ERA. 

Of course, the more exciting aspect of the empty roster slot is the possibility of signing a free agent.  Don’t think Jake Arrieta or Wade Davis or J.D. Martinez.  Still, it will make for some good Hot Stove fodder until after the December winter meetings and Rule V draft conclude on December 13^th. 

So what do you think of how the Mets handled their roster?