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11/27/17

Reese Kaplan -- A Hot Stove Flashback Scenario


After a second straight playoff appearance Sandy Alderson made the almost unprecedented decision not to add a single major league player (or minor league piece nearly ready) to help propel the 2016 squad that was one-and-done in the post season forward to do better.  Considering the myriad of injuries they endured that season, it seemed an odd choice to gamble that everyone would return healthy without a backup plan.  Understandably, they did worse.

Recently Mack opined that Zack Borenstein and Greg Purke better not be the sum total of Sandy Alderson’s off-season machinations, but we HAVE seen this movie before.  It was just last year.  As cynical as I am, even I don’t believe that will happen, particularly since there is a small pot of money to spend.  Also, the self-professed smartest guy in the room had to observe how 2017 unfolded.

Still, it got me to thinking…what if there was a repeat of the last off-season and no additions were made to the 2016 roster.  What would the team look like?

First Base

Despite all of the rumblings about disappointment with Dom Smith, he still has a year or so to prove what he can do as Peter Alonso barks at his heels.  Whether that happens in Queens or in Las Vegas, the only alternative at this point would be Wilmer Flores.  I’m confident Flores could provide 25/75 at minimum at 1st base and that’s all you could realistically expect from the 32 year old Carlos Santana, so it would be the height of foolishness to spend on that position at all.

Second Base

Here’s the biggest position player issue for the Mets.  Assuming Asdrubal Cabrera is on 3rd base, that leaves the motley crew of Gavin Cecchini and Matt Reynolds fighting it out for the position unless Smith wins the 1st base job outright.  Then add Wilmer Flores to the mix.  That won’t make many people warm and fuzzy who want to be strong up the middle as Wilmer’s best position on the field is DH.  Then there’s the traditional Mets’ hope and fantasy that players will miraculously heal in record time which might interject T.J. Rivera into the conversation as well.

Shortstop

While he came up with even more fanfare than Dom Smith, Amed Rosario, you could argue, failed just as spectacularly.  No one seems to be talking about his slash line of .248/4/10 over a 170 AB trial.  He added 7 SBs.  Smith, by comparison, hit .198/9/26.  Smith more than doubled both run producing categories yet Rosario gets a completely free pass.  They have no Plan B beyond the AAAA Matt Reynolds and the lead gloved duo of Wilmer Flores and Asdrubal Cabrera, so it’s his job for 2018 to sink or swim.

Third Base

They’re paying Asdrubal Cabrera to be the answer to David Wright’s health situation.  While I was not in favor of bringing him back as a way of changing the culture, offensively he’s a credible if not spectacular player who for what he provides is fairly paid at $8.5 million.  There is no conversation whatsoever about anyone else playing here, but the usual spate of infield backup options exist here as well.

Catcher

Formerly the poster child for the fans’ wrath, Travis d’Arnaud had fewer days lost to injury this year than in previous seasons and did produce 16 HRs and 57 RBIs in just 348 ABs.  Coupled with the rejuvenated Kevin Plawecki the Mets allowed the Cubs to take Rene Rivera and appear set with this right handed tandem for the coming year.

Left Field

If the Mets’ version of the straw that stirs the drink can remember to imbibe enough fluids to keep from cramping up, they are solid in LF with Yoenis Cespedes.  It will be interesting to see how well the new manager communicates with the superstar diva.

Center Field

While you would think any club that boasted a Gold Glove winner on its roster would be set here, with Michael Conforto’s injury they may not be able to withstand Juan Lagares’ bat in the lineup every day.  Furthermore, Lagares, like d’Arnaud, is not exactly Lou Gehrig out there.  Still, he would get the nod.

Right Field

Sandy Alderson’s first “proof” that he was the smartest guy in the room is likely the opening day starter in RF, Brandon Nimmo.  While no one questions the man’s desire or enthusiasm, the results have simply not been there.  His 2017 trial was better than he’s shown in the past.  However, a slash line of .260/5/24 is only slightly better than replacement level.  The glimmer of hope here is that as a latecomer to organized ball he may mature into his talent a bit later.  With Conforto out for the foreseeable future he should be starting daily.


Starting Rotation

Going into the season with hopes and prayers of recovery would mean your opening day rotation would include Jacob de Grom, Noah Syndergaard, Matt Harvey, Steve Matz and Zack Wheeler.  Backup options would include Seth Lugo, Robert Gselleman and Rafael Montero (if he is not traded).  While on paper it’s the rotation everyone always dreamed would exist, the fact is they have the collective structural solidity of a crystal chandelier facing the swing of Bryce Harper. It COULD  survive but I wouldn't bet the ranch on it.

Bullpen

Headed by the proven trio of Jeurys Familia, A.J. Ramos and Jerry Blevins, they are off to a good start here.  If they’re honest about going with an eight-man bullpen then you need to find five other warm bodies.  They would likely include Paul Sewald, Hansel Robles, Chasen Bradford, Josh Smoker and one of the three aforementioned backup starters and perhaps Kevin McGowan.

Outlook

I know I have well-earned reputation for being the naysayer here, but allow me to put on my rose colored glasses for a moment and suggest that it all hinges upon pitching.  If the starters can remain healthy and pitch to the best of their abilities, that lineup, while not exactly the stuff of which legends are made, is probably capable of delivering enough offense to support pitchers who give up 3 to 4 runs per game.  Since the Achilles heel seems to be pitching, that’s where I think the limited shekels need to be allocated to ensure the opportunity to win each day.  Anything that can be brought in to reinforce the offense is the cherry on top.  

22 comments:

  1. I will sum it up: WE NEED HELP!

    Lets see if we add a good starter and pen arm, or add multiple pen arms.

    Felix Millan is only 78 and wants to compete for the 2nd base job.

    HELP!

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  2. If you could live with Murph at 2B (and I wanted to), you can live with Wilmer. He could give the same O with regular PT. Yeah, Cabrera t 3B for a year (maybe less if Thompson rakes in AAA)--NEXT winter for a big offensive signing. The rose-colored glasses see a plus Legares/Nimmo CF split (more 50-50 than L-R), another All-Star year for Conforto and a healthy Yo.

    I wouldn't mind at all having Bruce back and Legares/Nimmo as 4/5, but not at the expense of a significant SP & RP signing (Addison Reed, please). Pitchin, pitching, pitching.

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  3. Hobie - Iron Hands Flores at 2B? I'd be OK with that, and let him also platoon with Smith at first - if Smith can't hit righties, we are in real trouble.

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  4. Reese -

    I second the emotion.

    I LOVE Rosario, but I'm not totally sold on him let.

    In my book, the best infielder on this team right now is the guy we have given the most heat, Cabrera.

    And... pitching, pitching pitching... let me say it one more time... have your starters give up less than 3 runs in the first 7 innings, and you will win 10 more games.

    There is plenty of money to make this a competitive team.

    Spend it on a 3B, OF3, and SP3

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  5. Mack, what about spending for at least one more pen arm too?

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  6. The first thing needed is a reality check of what the Mets really are.
    They are a team full of wholes created mostly by the resident Genius who has failed to make this team a competing one year after year which is what he promised.

    Next we have owners who every year want to cut taxes ....I mean, cut payroll when what the team really needs is to add good players if not great ones. You can't do that while cutting payroll.

    Now lets add the incredible failure to draft, develop and give opportunity to those players who do make it to the ML to show what they can do given the chance.

    Do I need to mention keeping those key players once the reach free agency? Murphy anyone?

    What do I expect from the Mets in 2018?
    Shaw or Reed, a fringe 4/5 type starter like Dickey or Colon and Reyes.
    Then the Mets will once again hope that all the Mayan MLB predictions will come true when the stars align.

    Wright will come back healthy and hit 40 hrs.
    Smith and Rosario will play like above average ML players.
    Flores will establish himself as an everyday player but will ride the bench because a consultant to the GM thinks he is a utility player.
    Batman who became Badman will once again be Batman.
    The Wheeler of fortune will find his health.
    Matz will pitch in 25 games.

    I hate winter...no baseball and nothing to write about. hummm.. that gives me an idea.

    Does anyone wants to compare fielding stats / range factor of Murphy at 2B vs Flores at 2B? Duda at 1B vs Flores at 1B. How much better exactly are /were Cabrera and Reyes at 2B vs Flores?

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  7. Sandy has said he has the pen high on his winter list. Shaw, Smith and Reed are the most often mentioned names.

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  8. Tom -

    I do not consider the money for a RP as big money.

    I also expect a 2 yr deal done for Shaw next week

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  9. Bill

    I see that Soto fixed the glitch

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  10. Viper

    Why dont you write a post about it?

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  11. Mack,
    Just giving you guys ideas for the lonely winter which will answer once and for all the mystery of Flores.

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  12. @Mack and Bill

    Wish I could take credit but it was Not so much a glitch as it was the verification process just not liking Bill Metsiac for some odd reason....lmao.

    I tried something but doubt it will have much affect as the verification process is a Blogger platform thing....not a controllable Macks Mets feature.

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  13. @Viper

    I actually have a statistical analysis that shows just how UNimportant defense at 2B is to playoff caliber teams. In fact.....the study showed that their is a NEGATIVE correlation between Defensive Runs Saved(DRS) at 2B and team winning%

    Said simply....teams that have better bats/shittier fielding 2B.....tend to have better records than the rest of the MLB.

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  14. Chris

    Maybe Reese has created the Metsiac problem

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  15. I take full credit for exacerbating the Metsiac problem but he is his own original creation :)

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  16. Any glitch that does not like Bill Metsiac is a major glitch indeed!

    Chris - "....teams that have better bats/shittier fielding 2B.....tend to have better records than the rest of the MLB." Don't let Mack see that - it will ruin his day!

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  17. My mother and father are my creators!

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  18. The problem SEEMED to be solved early this morning, but it's back in full force. Is anyone else here forced to go through the same "click on pictures with cars" crap in order to post?

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  19. I have gotten that when I log in from a new device and/or when I clear cache and cookies in my browser. It should be a one-time occurrence.

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  20. Christopher,
    I was trying to get the numbers on Flores vs Cabrera, Reyes, Murphy. That would tell everyone if Flores is average or far below the names mentioned above. To my recollection, most of Flores errors came from him playing 3B and on throws to 1B.

    The other was to compare Flores vs Duda while playing 1B. Is Flores ML average, below?

    Just don't know where I can get this information separated by position.

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  21. Cabrera is a "lead glove"??? He's lost some range, but his glove and arm are fine.

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  22. Viper, Google Flores in baseballreference.com for fielding splits.

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