Reese Kaplan -- A Hot Stove Flashback Scenario

After a second straight playoff appearance Sandy Alderson made the almost unprecedented decision not to add a single major league player (or minor league piece nearly ready) to help propel the 2016 squad that was one-and-done in the post season forward to do better.  Considering the myriad of injuries they endured that season, it seemed an odd choice to gamble that everyone would return healthy without a backup plan.  Understandably, they did worse.

Recently Mack opined that Zack Borenstein and Greg Purke better not be the sum total of Sandy Alderson’s off-season machinations, but we HAVE seen this movie before.  It was just last year.  As cynical as I am, even I don’t believe that will happen, particularly since there is a small pot of money to spend.  Also, the self-professed smartest guy in the room had to observe how 2017 unfolded.

Still, it got me to thinking…what if there was a repeat of the last off-season and no additions were made to the 2016 roster.  What would the team look like?

First Base

Despite all of the rumblings about disappointment with Dom Smith, he still has a year or so to prove what he can do as Peter Alonso barks at his heels.  Whether that happens in Queens or in Las Vegas, the only alternative at this point would be Wilmer Flores.  I’m confident Flores could provide 25/75 at minimum at 1^st base and that’s all you could realistically expect from the 32 year old Carlos Santana, so it would be the height of foolishness to spend on that position at all.

Second Base

Here’s the biggest position player issue for the Mets.  Assuming Asdrubal Cabrera is on 3^rd base, that leaves the motley crew of Gavin Cecchini and Matt Reynolds fighting it out for the position unless Smith wins the 1^st base job outright.  Then add Wilmer Flores to the mix.  That won’t make many people warm and fuzzy who want to be strong up the middle as Wilmer’s best position on the field is DH.  Then there’s the traditional Mets’ hope and fantasy that players will miraculously heal in record time which might interject T.J. Rivera into the conversation as well.

Shortstop

While he came up with even more fanfare than Dom Smith, Amed Rosario, you could argue, failed just as spectacularly.  No one seems to be talking about his slash line of .248/4/10 over a 170 AB trial.  He added 7 SBs.  Smith, by comparison, hit .198/9/26.  Smith more than doubled both run producing categories yet Rosario gets a completely free pass.  They have no Plan B beyond the AAAA Matt Reynolds and the lead gloved duo of Wilmer Flores and Asdrubal Cabrera, so it’s his job for 2018 to sink or swim.

Third Base

They’re paying Asdrubal Cabrera to be the answer to David Wright’s health situation.  While I was not in favor of bringing him back as a way of changing the culture, offensively he’s a credible if not spectacular player who for what he provides is fairly paid at $8.5 million.  There is no conversation whatsoever about anyone else playing here, but the usual spate of infield backup options exist here as well.

Catcher

Formerly the poster child for the fans’ wrath, Travis d’Arnaud had fewer days lost to injury this year than in previous seasons and did produce 16 HRs and 57 RBIs in just 348 ABs.  Coupled with the rejuvenated Kevin Plawecki the Mets allowed the Cubs to take Rene Rivera and appear set with this right handed tandem for the coming year.

Left Field

If the Mets’ version of the straw that stirs the drink can remember to imbibe enough fluids to keep from cramping up, they are solid in LF with Yoenis Cespedes.  It will be interesting to see how well the new manager communicates with the superstar diva.

Center Field

While you would think any club that boasted a Gold Glove winner on its roster would be set here, with Michael Conforto’s injury they may not be able to withstand Juan Lagares’ bat in the lineup every day.  Furthermore, Lagares, like d’Arnaud, is not exactly Lou Gehrig out there.  Still, he would get the nod.

Right Field

Sandy Alderson’s first “proof” that he was the smartest guy in the room is likely the opening day starter in RF, Brandon Nimmo.  While no one questions the man’s desire or enthusiasm, the results have simply not been there.  His 2017 trial was better than he’s shown in the past.  However, a slash line of .260/5/24 is only slightly better than replacement level.  The glimmer of hope here is that as a latecomer to organized ball he may mature into his talent a bit later.  With Conforto out for the foreseeable future he should be starting daily.

Starting Rotation

Going into the season with hopes and prayers of recovery would mean your opening day rotation would include Jacob de Grom, Noah Syndergaard, Matt Harvey, Steve Matz and Zack Wheeler.  Backup options would include Seth Lugo, Robert Gselleman and Rafael Montero (if he is not traded).  While on paper it’s the rotation everyone always dreamed would exist, the fact is they have the collective structural solidity of a crystal chandelier facing the swing of Bryce Harper. It COULD  survive but I wouldn't bet the ranch on it.

Bullpen

Headed by the proven trio of Jeurys Familia, A.J. Ramos and Jerry Blevins, they are off to a good start here.  If they’re honest about going with an eight-man bullpen then you need to find five other warm bodies.  They would likely include Paul Sewald, Hansel Robles, Chasen Bradford, Josh Smoker and one of the three aforementioned backup starters and perhaps Kevin McGowan.

Outlook

I know I have well-earned reputation for being the naysayer here, but allow me to put on my rose colored glasses for a moment and suggest that it all hinges upon pitching.  If the starters can remain healthy and pitch to the best of their abilities, that lineup, while not exactly the stuff of which legends are made, is probably capable of delivering enough offense to support pitchers who give up 3 to 4 runs per game.  Since the Achilles heel seems to be pitching, that’s where I think the limited shekels need to be allocated to ensure the opportunity to win each day.  Anything that can be brought in to reinforce the offense is the cherry on top.