Good morning.
There seems to be a
fair amount of discussion as to whether the Mets pipeline is currently deep
enough to produce a steady amount of talent each year in Flushing. I’ll give
you this… it’s been deeper in the past, but it’s not as bad as some of you think.
First, an opening
statement. I, as many are, am never always right about projecting minor league
talent. I never thought Kevin Plawecki, Juan Lagares, or even Wilmer
Flores would ever get this far. They have proven me wrong.
I happen to believe
that the Mets biggest problem right now is the fact that their current 25-man
squad wouldn’t be competitive in 2018. They need to fill in some holes there,
at least until some of the prospects make their way to Queens.
I like to create a
ranked prospect list, but I rarely go above naming the top 20. Below that is
only guesswork. Most of those players still need more development in all
aspects of their game.
Lastly, I already have the
ageless RP Josh Smoker and RP Jamie Callahan on my 25-man squad so they won’t be
covered in this list.
Now, if you seriously
want to try and determine who on the farm can help you, you can’t look past
players that wouldn’t be able to do that if they weren’t ready in either 2018
or 2019. The rest is still for dreamers.
So, what does 2018 look
like?
A little lean.
1B Dominic Smith and SS Amed
Rosario already arrived last year. So did SP Chris
Flexen who was sent up as an emergency starter. I expect him to open up
in the Las Vegas rotation, but could be called back if he dominates there (good
luck with that!). Past that, RP Jacob Rhame may be
the other player to graduate next year.
But here’s why I have
said that next season is a rebounding year. SP Corey
Oswalt, RP Drew Smith, 2B Luis Guillorme, and OF Kevin
Kaczmarski look like a shoe-in to be added to the 2019 25-man squad.
And it may not end
here. Others that could make the grade are SP Marcos
Molina, RP Tim Peterson, C Tomas Nido, and 3B David
Thompson.
Sure, probably not all
of these guys will star, but what if they did? This would represent close to
50% of the future 2019 25-man squad.
And, the following
season (2020) would deliver possibly eight more SPs (Jordan
Humphreys Thomas Szapucki, Anthony Kay, David Peterson, Harol Gonzalez, Nabil
Crismatt, Mickey Jannis, Thomas McIlraith), four projected ++ relievers
(Tyler Bashlor, Gerson Bautista, Adonis Uceta, Adam
Atkins), catcher Patrick Mazeika, 1B Peter Alonso, and SS Andres
Gimenez).
So I ask you…
Is the Mets pipeline
currently weak or is it set up for long term success starting in 2019?
And can we truly say
that some the guys on the cusp will really become a star in this business?
Well,
check out this comparison between two pitchers that had almost identical stats
in 2016:
We need a Robbie Ray in 2017.
ReplyDeleteContrary to you, I thought Plawecki and Lagares would both hit better than they have, and I still think Wilmer has an eye-popping offensive year (Jeff Kent style) in his future.
I think the system is deemed weak FOR 2018 but has some real valuable pieces for 2019 and 2020. And I do not think the 2017 draft was a good one, so the pipeline is shaky beyond 2020 as of right now.
An article I am doing tomorrow looks at guys the Mets have and what sort of team you'd find them on. With Kaczmarski, for example, I do also think he will make the majors, but he (due to his lack of power) is the kind of player 60-70 win teams have on their roster...teams winning 90 games don't, they have better caliber players.
Thomas, agree with every word. And I love Zozo’s idea, but with those gutless Bozos in the Front Office...
DeleteWe need a Robbie Ray in 2018, I meant to say.
ReplyDeleteIt’s not bad. Most of these guys need another good season under their belts to catapult the Mets back into the top 10 in Minor league prospect rankings.
ReplyDeleteI would trade most them though this offseason and build us a top NL East team.
Trade Smith, Gimenez, Peterson, Nido, Humphreys, Plawecki and Nimmo for Yelich and Realmuto.
Then sign Hosmer for 10 year 180 million contract.
I think this way we would be set at every position for the next 3 years except 3rd base.
Zozo
Zozo with bold thinking - like it - not sure what it would take to get Yelich and Realmuto (would it take all that?) but sure, I'd consider it.
ReplyDeleteBetter to overpay when making a Fantasy trade on the internet so you don’t get ripped to shreds as to why the other team won’t do it.
ReplyDeleteWe would be set for next 4 years on offense and can build you prospects back up. Imagine this lineup
Rosario
Yellich
Hosmer
Cespedes
Conforto
Realmuto
Flores/ Guillorme/ TJ
Cabrera/ Flores/ Thompson/ Vientos
Now that’s a well oiled machine to go to battle with for next 4 years.
Zozo, excellent line up. Makes sense to me.
ReplyDeleteI love it but we ALL know it won't happen because the word BOLD in not in their vocabulary. Hearing SA blabber on about all the things he's working and nothing much happens we yawn and can only dream about getting a Stanton or Machado or Yelich and it's very sad.
ReplyDelete3 more years of waiting for the pipeline?
ReplyDeleteHow many times do fans have to call for the empty promises?
12 years now..... just wait.... the front office knows what it is doing.... just be patient....
2 front offices later..... 1 1/2 solid years of contention surrounded by mediocrity and substandard performances.
I don't even need World Series titles. Just being able to have faith that the Mets would annually be in contention would be fulfilling
Mack-
ReplyDeleteGlad to see you recognize the potential of Drew Smith. He may need another full year of seasoning at AAA, but he looks like a future winner. I can't imagine why MLB doesn't have him in their list of the Mets top 30 prospects.
Oswalt is a good pick for possible call up this year. I fear Guillorme and Kaczmarski may have to wait for September, if at all. (Did the latest players agreement change the rules for September call ups?)