Reese Kaplan -- Can You Stomach a Rebuild?

Mack’s Mets contributor Mike Freire drew a line in the sand based upon Monday’s “How to Spend the Remaining Payroll” article.  The issue for many Mets fans (also highlighted in Marc Carig’s article on the lack of transparency with the Wilpons) is that the team is not clearly trying to win now nor are they building for the future.  The end result is a continual series of half measures you take by signing the odd second tier veteran here or over-the-hill star there in order to perpetuate the illusion of competitiveness without actually hitting the mark.

When you think back to 2015 when the Mets were treading water around .500 but in striking distance of the top, they made moves to help propel them forward, including the acquisitions of Kelly Johnson and Juan Uribe, the addition of Yoenis Cespedes, and bullpen fortifications in the form of Tyler Clippard, Addison Reed and Eric O’Flaherty (the latter just to prove you can’t win ‘em all).  The injuries that hit in 2016 were frequent yet the team managed to hit the post-season again.

Starting out in 2017 within a span of less than two weeks you’d lost a top starting pitcher, your top relief pitcher, starting catcher and missed the face of the franchise for the entire season.  As the snakebitten year progressed they lost pretty much the rest of the rotation except Jacob de Grom as well as Yoenis Cespedes, Michael Conforto and by year’s end both Wilmer Flores and T.J. Rivera were gone as well. 

So going into 2018 fans were hoping for a clear direction.  Are they going to make the investment in talent and management personnel necessary to win, or are they going to sell off their top assets and hope to rebuild quickly by reaping the rewards of the players moved.

Anyone who has been around in the post-Madoff days knows the former isn’t happening.  However, based upon Sandy Alderson’s transactions with the departing free agents last year, not many would feel confident in that latter scenario either.  Hey, we all wish the best for Jacob Rhame, Jamie Callahan, Drew Smith, Gerson Bautista, Stephen Nogosek,  Ryder Ryan and Eric Hanhold all evolve into the second coming of Aroldis Chapman (minus the ill-advised gun play), but none were any of the trading organization’s top 10 prospects nor were any ready to step in and make an immediate positive impact.

That’s not to say waiting isn’t a good thing.  After all, that low level minor league pitcher throw-in named Noah Syndergaard turned out to be pretty good, huh?  It’s just that lower level minor leaguers are harder to predict as arm injuries and better hitters threaten their ascent through the ranks.

Still, as painful as it is to say it, what would you be able to net back if you offered up Jacob deGrom in trade to another ballclub?  For reference, the Cubs once traded Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel to the A’s for their number one prospect named Addison Russell.  Do you think the Cubs wouldn't do that one over again every day and twice on Sunday?  How about when the Astros sent veteran hurler Larry Anderson to Beantown for an unknown AA hitter named Jeff Bagwell?

So what could the Mets land in a deal for deGrom who has three years of financial control available to the acquiring team and has pitched to All-Star level since his arrival relatively late to the majors.  He’s turning 30 this year and it’s reasonable to assume whomever gets him will land three spectacular years of performance at a cost-controlled price.  

Obviously for the very same reasons he’d be attractive to other teams, he’s also attractive to the Mets.  However, if you could fortify two to three other positions with cost-controllable assets (music to the Wilpons’ and Alderson’s ears), would you do it?

For example, suppose the Blue Jays offered up Vlad Guerrero, Jr. and Bo Bichette (both children of former stars), would you pull the trigger?  Guerrero in 673 ABs has hit .305 with 21 HRs, 122 RBIs and has more walks than strikeouts to go along with 23 SBs.  He’s a third baseman by trade and coincidentally the Mets have a third baseman who is (due to health) long past his prime.  Bichette has had 530 minor league ABs and hit a mere .372 with 18 HRs and 110 RBIs along with 25 SBs and an OBP of .427.  He plays primarily 2B, also a position of need.

The problem here is their tender ages of 19…they’re not ready to contribute in 2018 nor 2019 but with output like that it’s possible by 2021 when deGrom is set to be a free agent they would both break into the majors.  Could Mets fans swallow hard and realize that the long term benefit could outweigh the short term loss?  Certainly the Wilpons would like it as de Grom is set to be a $10 million man this year and that price will continue to go up each of the next few years of arbitration eligibility.  The Blue Jays, however, still smarting from the R.A. Dickey deal may not want to do it.

Still, that’s the kind of aggressive demand I would make for Jacob deGrom.  (And don’t be surprised if another team bites at it).  The question is, would the fans revolt or rejoice?  Bear in mind the losing that would inevitably accompany your stud starter leaving would also help lead to higher draft picks and more growth for the future (assuming they find someone in the front office more talented to do the picking). 

Have at it.