Reese Kaplan -- What We Want vs. What We'll Get

With the Winter Meetings beginning in warm and sunny Florida tomorrow, a great many Mets fans have their holiday wish lists running to a length of a Tolstoy novel on what Sandy Alderson and company should do to propel the team back into contention.  On a position by position basis, let’s take a look at the Wish List, the Smart Play, and the Grim Reality:

First Base

• Wish List:  Atop most fans’ collective wish list is Eric Hosmer or Carlos Santana, both of whom requiring only money and a sales pitch to obtain (well, draft pick compensation, but that’s a given for anyone receiving and turning down a QO). 
• Smart Play:  I’m not completely sure why, but the rumors abound that Jose Abreu is available in trade.  Considering he’s slated for two more years of arbitration eligibility before becoming a free agent.  He’s projected to get close to $18 million in arbitration this year and probably a bump next year – say $22 million.  That’s not pocket change, but it is just $40 million versus a figure well north of $100 in commitment for one of the FAs.  You would have a truly consistent slugger in his prime and then decide long term if you want to lock him up or let someone else pay for his declining years.  The White Sox have been robber barons in the past few years in the deals for Adam Eaton, Chris Sale and Jose Quintana, so it’s going to take quite a haul to land him.
• Grim Reality:  Expect a platoon of Dom Smith and Wilmer Flores unless they choose to go low end for someone like Adam Lind who can fill in for Michael Conforto until he’s ready, then for Dom Smith if he doesn’t show marked improvement.  

Second Base

• Wish List:  Dee Gordon is now off the table, having been dealt to Seattle. Other high profile people rumored to be in play are Ian Kinsler, Brian Dozier, Jason Kipnis, Neil Walker and Cesar Hernandez.
• Smart Get:  Jae-Gyun Hwang, Korean 3^rd baseman who hits for power, average and plays an outstanding 3^rd base.  Check out a report here.  Why is he listed in the 2B area?  You can move Asdrubal Cabrera to second.
• Grim Reality: Expect a return of the once and future Met, Jose Reyes.  His surge to finish the season with near replacement level numbers on the year will overshadow his abysmal start. He provides the speed and positional flexibility the club wants, with enough experience to help mentor Amed Rosario. 

Shortstop

• Wish List:  While everyone is giving a pass to Amed Rosario’s dismal debut (myself included), he still is one of the few desirable trade chips the Mets have to address other areas.  With Andres Gimenez and others in the shortstop pipeline the Mets might look for a 3 year or so solution in the form of Zack Cozart and open up Rosario to offers.  Cozart is coming off a 4.9 WAR season, is terrific with the glove and had a breakout year at the plate for power and discipline.
• Smart Play:  Keep Rosario where he is as he has the tools to be an upper echelon player at minimal cost.
• Grim Reality:  Figuring Jose Reyes would be a good option if Cozart is too rich for their blood.

Third Base

• Wish List:  Mike Moustakas is the name heard most often when the Mets are questioned about solving their post-David Wright 3B woes, but it’s also projected based upon his contract year outlier season he’s going to command a contract of five years and $100 million.  He batted .272 with an unprecedented 38 HRs and 85 RBIs, yet was worth just 1.8 WAR.  That seems fairly minimal for a guy who showed that much pop. Tood Frazier and his Mendoza-line average was worth 3.4 WAR with 27 HRs.  The local boy has already played in New York, would be less expensive than Moustakas and actually has a longer track record of providing power.  Evan Longoria is rumored to be on the block but his salary for the next five years may make him undesirable unless Tampa kicks in quite a bit. 
• Smart Play:  See my Korean recommendation above as he is a natural third baseman, but the other name that jumps out is Eduardo Nunez.  Like Wilmer Flores, he is paid for what he can do offensively but is defensively challenged.  Aside from his hitting and baserunning abilities, he adds positional versatility, having played pretty much every position at one time or another but pitcher and catcher.  He would cost perhaps $7 million per year over 3 years and could slot in at leadoff. 
• Grim Reality:  Asdrubal Cabrera is here and it’s his job.  Sandy Alderson pretty much guaranteed that by picking up his $8.5 million option.  If they had decided to go with either Jae-Gyun Hwang or Eduardo Nunez then Cabrera would still be a viable option to play 2B. 

Catcher

• Wish List:  Surprisingly there are a great many people clamoring for Jonathan Lucroy.  He’s coming off his worst-ever season and could perhaps be a buy-low candidate.  In 2017 he combined between Texas and Colorado to hit .265 with 6 HRs and 40 RBIs.  For that effort he was paid $5.25 million.  He’s also likely a 3 year, $21 million deal based upon a more typical year of .281/16/76.  Wellington Castillo already signed a contract while Sandy Alderson slept, providing the White Sox with two years at just $7.5 million per year after delivering .282/20/53 in just 341 ABs. 
• Smart Play:  Stand pat.  Travis d’Arnaud and Kevin Plawecki combined for .246/19/70 in 448 ABs.  Both showed signs of improvement and given their modest cost, any improvement from another option not named Buster Posey or Salvador Perez or Gary Sanchez would be marginal for big bucks. 
• Grim Reality:  Others may have seen the improvement in Travis d’Arnaud’s hitting and bite if Sandy Alderson put him up on the trading block.  In this cash-starved franchise, the $3.5 million or so d’Arnaud will make could help finance a Joe Smith.  They would then hand the job to Kevin Plawecki and look for a defensive specialist a’la Rene Rivera to handle backup duties on a one-year deal while waiting for Tomas Nido to continue his development. 

Left Field

• Yoenis Cespedes – no discussion here

Center Field

• Wish List:  It begins and ends with Lorenzo Cain, a somewhat underappreciated small ball player who has shown excellent defense, baserunning, high OBP, decent average and moderate power.  He could slot in at leadoff and anchor the spot for the duration of a deal between slugging bookends Joenis Cespedes and Michael Conforto.  MLBTR suggests he will get anywhere between 6/$85 and 5/$100.  The way to approach it with a guy who relies on his legs coming into his age 32 season.  I could see the Mets potentially going higher on the AAV for his services but cutting off the deal at 3 years.  That probably wouldn’t get it done even if they were inclined to spend more than 67% of their available payroll budget on one resource.
• Smart Play:  Hand the job to Juan Lagares with the hope that his off-season boutique batting coaching will lead to a marked improvement in his hitting.  If so, he either becomes a strong asset moving forward or a valuable trade chip mid-season making his 2019 salary obligation of $9 million someone else’s responsibility.  His defense alone is worth 1.8 WAR in just 252 ABs despite hitting a paltry .250 with 3/15.  For a refresher, Mike Moustakas is looking at multi-years at $20 million per season after his career best 1.8 WAR season. 
• Grim Reality:  Juan Lagares’ injury history (and the balsa-wood left handed partner, Brandon Nimmo) may be penciled in to lose large chunks of the season to their DL stints.  The club need another outfielder but investing in one is probably not a high priority. 

Right Field

• Michael Conforto (whenever he’s available to play again).

Starting Rotation

• Wish List:  Jake Arrieta, Yu Darvish, Lance Lynn, Alex Cobb would lead this list, but they’re going to command many years and many dollars to secure their services.
• Smart Play:  The proverbial innings-eater, someone who will keep you in the game and who has a long track record of health would take some of the pressure off the injury-plagued Mets staff and open up the prospect of dealing away guys like Robert Gsellman, Seth Lugo or Rafael Montero.  It could even include Zach Wheeler.  The question here is who is the best bet in this category.  I’ve long advocated Jhulys Chacin who delivered a 13-10 record for the Padres for just $1.75 million with a 3.89 ERA and 180 IP worth 2.8 WAR.  For his career he pitched to a 3.93 ERA which is more impressive than it sounds since most of it was spent in Coors Field. 
• Grim Reality:  Stories abound this week that after being kicked off the list of suitors for Shohei Ohtani, the Mets are not planning on adding a starter.  That means “the plan” once again is that everyone on the staff will miraculously last the entire season in perfect health and pitch the way they envisioned.  Nevermind that the 1962 Mets looked like Cy Young Award winners next to the 2017 rotation. 

Bullpen

• Wish List:  Greg Holland, Wade Davis, Addison Reed and Steve Cishek. 
• Smart Play:  Joe Smith has always been undervalued for what he delivers and has a connection to Mickey Callaway.  The sidearm delivery is a decidedly different look from the other relievers which might make him doubly effective.  Pat Neshek would fit the bill as well.  American expatriate Dennis Sarfarte and various Japanese relievers are also worth considering. 
• Grim Reality:  The Mets will overpay for Bryan Shaw who has logged a LOT of innings on his arm over the past several years.  It’s not a bad way to go, but they could use multiple options and not put all their eggs in just one basket.  They may try Addison Reed again who imploded in Boston but his stats have been trending the wrong way and I’d be wary of a long term deal.