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1/14/18

Mack’s Apples – Starting Over, Santa Rosa Baseball, Dillon Gee, 3-mil Baseball Cards, TJS

Good morning.


The New York Mets should perform a ‘Derek Jeter 'and start from scratch –

           
Consider this …

Using a different chart from Cot’s Baseball Contracts, Noah Syndergaard has four years of arbitration due (beginning this season) before he becomes a free agent in 2022, and Jacob deGrom has three years before he earns his freedom in 2021. Team control over both these players is over, and their salaries will rise each season dramatically during the arbitration process. How long will it be before the Mets say, uh-uh, see ya later, because they can’t quite afford them, unquote?

Matt Harvey will be history after this season when he becomes a free agent, and both Steven Matz and Michael Conforto will begin their arbitration years in 2019. If the penny rich Mets can salvage just one of all the players mentioned when they’ll be $100+ million valued as free agents, it’ll be considered a miracle.

            Didn’t I say this last week?


Santa Rosa baseball clinic benefits kids who lost homes to fires –

         
  On Friday, about 220 young baseball enthusiasts — a good many of whom lost their homes in the deadly wildfires in October — will get a chance to learn skills under the tutelage of baseball veterans, including some big leaguers, minor leaguers and area standouts. It’s part of a four-hour clinic and fundraiser at Epicenter in Santa Rosa to benefit youth baseball players who have lost their homes.


Dillon Gee signs with the Chunichi Dragons –



2018 Mets International signees (thanks go out to Jacob Resnick - www.http://metsminors.net  for this) - 




        


         In 2011, Gee went on that magical 8-0 run, which caused even ESPN to turn heads. Gee would end up finishing the year with a 4.43 ERA and a 13-6 record. Not bad for his second year in the majors.

I’m thrilled that Dillon has become a seven figured pitcher. Enjoy the sushi.

(I took this picture of Dillon, with his original Mets number of #73, when he came to his first spring traing)






Collector giving up 3-million  baseball card collection -
                      
                 
After nearly 60 years the collector who spent a lifetime accumulating 3-million baseball cards – weighing five tons - says it's time to say goodbye to his prized possessions.

Soon, each and every card will be up for auction, but he says it was a hard decision to make.



Have We Passed Peak Tommy John ? –

        
   There were concerns that sports specialization, the focus on velocity over feel for the craft, was stressing arms even before they arrived in the majors. It seemed possible that rising league-average velocity marks — for which there’s now a new record set each year — were creating demands on pitchers’ elbows that their bodies couldn’t withstand.

Tommy John surgeries reached a record level in 2014, a level surpassed again in 2015. Velocity kept inching up. Pitchers with medical histories and red flags kept flowing into the game via the draft. Said Pirates GM Neal Huntington to this former newspaperman in 2014:

“They were blown away by the number of significant injuries high school and college pitchers had this year compared to three years ago, five years ago. The level of injuries is growing exponentially,” Huntington said. “We are just starting to get to the front edge of this (Tommy John surgery) wave. We might not even be through the worst of this yet.”


Maybe I’m wrong here, but it seems that the Mets are currently behind the curve here.

29 comments:

  1. The Mets lead the league...in Tommy John scars.

    The Mets are not rebuilding...the Adrian Gonzalez minimum salary signing proves it. If his back is healthy, we have a solid player until Smith is more ready. If not we cut him. I like it. I don't want to rebuild. Make our favorable draft slot be our mini-rebuild this year.

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    1. Tom, I don't understand the "rebuild" thinkers. Just because there aren't eight all-stars in the lineup doesn't make it a bad team. Also, find a better and deeper pitching staff anywhere: Starters and Relievers.

      The Mets are one good player on the MLB roster away and their farm system needs the prospects like Lindsey, Dunn, and Nido to figure it out and let everyone move up a level. Then, things will be much rosier. Why the rebuild?

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  2. The true test will be this season's record and does the pitching staff recover from last season. If it's another crash and burn pitching wise except for Jake and Thor and another 70-75 win season a rebuild is very possible.

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  3. Having 2 left hand hitting first basemen does not make for the perfect platoon... and there really is not room on a 25-man for 2 strictly playing first basemen.

    Should be an interesting camp.

    I really like the move. Costs us the minimum while the Braves have to pay the freight.

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  4. I agree with Gary and I’ll also add it is crucial that one or two pitching prospects step up and show strong signs that they can succeed in the bigs. Oswald, Molina, Dunn, Flexen, even Lugo. If a couple of these guys can step in and fill shoes once the others get too price, we’ll, that becomes sustainable winning. Yes, they will need some bats too, but it always starts with the pitching. Always has, always will.

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  5. TP, the Mets will need to cut payroll going into 2019 with their current financial mindset, so for the minor league starters you mentioned, this year is a year of really important opportunity to shine. Flexed would seem to have an edge since he has been to the war zone in Queens already.

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  6. One more thing...

    I wrote a while back that a 'source' of mine deep inside the organization told me not to believe it when Sandy keeps saying he is going to spend a considerable amount LESS than the $150+mil spent last year in salaries.

    As of the A-Gon deal:

    $130.217mil and growing

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    1. So Mack what do you foresee ? Either they trade for Harrison - or sign a FA 2b like Nunez or Kendrick then sign either another SP or reliever ? Also would you make a play at signing Tim Lincicum to a Milb co tract for depth ?

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    2. So then why was the Kipnis deal kiboshed over money by ownership?

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  7. Eduardo Nunez at 3B now? I'd prefer Moustakas if the Mets are feeling lucky, but Eduardo seems a fine alternate. Speed, on base, some pop...and my guess is his fielding improves if he is an everyday 3B. Versatile to play 2nd base in the highly unlikely event Wright returns as Wright...to me, the odds against that are 20-1.

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    1. Moose's defense is getting worse and his obp is abhorrent. Frazier's defense is better and his career wRC+ is ten points higher than Moose's

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  8. Ed -

    I do not know who but I see another $15mil for a one year deal with a second baseman

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  9. I would trade for kipnis or pickup Kendry for second and sign Todd Frazier for 3rd. Then trade Cabrera and whoever else you have to take of the 40 man roster.

    Also on what date can we put Wright on the 60 day DL so he doesn’t take up a spot?

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  10. My interpretation of the Gonzalez move is that they're setting up a possible platoon of he and Wilmer Flores, putting Dom Smith in play for a trade to shore up another position. A-Gone is the bridge to Peter Alonso.

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    Replies
    1. I feel the same way. Maybe a trade for a Chris Archer type?

      Would a Smith, Giminez, Flores and Nimmo swap be enough?

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    2. No most teams can easily beat that, you would have to add Rosario and I would not do that.

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  11. Blow up the Mets? That's pretty harsh. With only 1 or 2 key additions, we have the makings of a very competitive team. Actually, add a quality 2nd or 3rd baseman, (Harrison, Frazier, Nunez, Walker, Kendrick, etc.) and barring another health disaster year, we are good to go. An arm for the pen and/or rotation depth would be icing on the cake.

    Fact: I have payroll after the arbitration dust has settled and the A-Gon signing at $135.850 million. Mack, are you counting the 8 pre-arb players that get the MLB minimum? As you all know, I have been saying that the "$20 million reduction in payroll" and the "Mets have only $10 million to spend this off-season" were all hype, either deliberately put out by the front office as a strategy or BS made up by some beat writer to stir up the fans.

    Mack- there will be no A-Gon/Smith platoon. If Gonzalez makes the team, Smith will probably start the season in Vegas and Flores may spell Gonzo.

    Tom, I would actually prefer Frazier to Moustakis. Call me crazy, but I like the Frazier glove and perhaps more importantly, his clubhouse demeanor and rah-rah attitude. And he could be good for 30 HRs. Nunez's defense improving is a pipe dream, IMO. He has had more than enough innings at 2B, 3B, and SS over his career to hone his skills. If he hasn't done it yet, he won't do it playing full time. That said, his bat nd legs could make up for it and he could be a decent addition, so if that's the route Sandy has to take, I would be behind it.

    Zozo- I like your idea, but I would bet we won't sign/acquire both a 2B AND 3B. Asdrubal is probably safe for 2018, at least until July.

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  12. I will say this...

    One year deals have Omar written all over them.

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    Replies
    1. Lol stop. Omar gave aging vets like Alou multiyear deals while losing draft picks.

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  13. Guys, Does Peter Alonso's fielding prowess (or apparent lack thereof) worry anybody? Everyone seems to tab him as our !B of the future, and not far future, but he looks like a disaster on the field. Shades of Marvelous Marv.

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  14. Herb -

    How many times have you seen Peter play first base?

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  15. Pete Alonso's acumen defensively at 1B will be much clearer if he can put in a full, healthy 2018. He is working hard on his defense and agility this off season, so I reserve judgment.

    Reese, you may be right.

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  16. Lol, Mack continuing to say payroll is going up after ownership put the kibosh on the Kipnis deal because of money.

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  17. Lol, Mack continuing to say payroll is going up after ownership put the kibosh on the Kipnis deal because of money.

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  18. Herb,
    Your numbers look good, and I am with you and Mack regarding their payroll by opening day. The one caveat, of course, is with the Wilpons I'll believe it when I see it, but they have earned that doubt IMHO.

    I also agree that it will be Gonzo or D Smith, not both. I am fine with the A Gon play, it is virtually risk free, and even f a long shot, why not.

    I strongly agree on Frazier over Moustakas, but I don't really see Moustakas as an option. I'd still prefer a professional 2b with a strong glove, over a 3b, but one or the other is necessary.

    Lastly, despite quantity, the pitching still needs another quality arm. Last year, poor starting and bullpen led to league bottom run prevention. While a strong # starter is optimal, with a current starter or two moving to the pen, the cost is likely too high. So, go get another strong arm for the pen. Given the Reed signing, there is likely a good bargain out there.

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  19. Mack- I must admit that I have not actually seen Peter on the field. I am looking at his 19 errors in 83 games (.972 FPCT and 8.20 RF/9) this year. Admittedly, a small sample and not the best way to judge a player. I would welcome input from those with more first hand knowledge.

    TP- I have my doubts about adding another QUALITY arm. Although there could have been many factors at play, some of which have been mentioned here, I think losing Reed to such a reasonable contract may be an indicator that Sandy is through adding what we would call quality arms and is focused on the infield. I look for him to sign a few leftovers with good upside, low risk/high return types, (like A-Gon) to minor league deals as spring training approaches.

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  20. Herb -

    I too only have stats and a limited sample.

    I know Ernest has. Could use his help here.

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  21. TexasGusCC, I could not agree more. Let's try to win this year. Lots of good guys. If they falter, then try Plan B.

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