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1/27/18

Michael Friere - So, Let's Make Another Deal!



OK, so my previous effort under this title was not necessarily aimed at starting a series, but after submitting the article, I figured that we could address several positions on the Mets current roster in this fashion.  As a quick review, I am not above admitting that I have been wrong before and that possibility led to a deeper statistical analysis on certain players that “I thought I knew”, if that makes sense. 
In true “Let’s Make A Deal” fashion, I will list three alternatives below much like the previous article, only this one will not focus on third base.  I want each of you to select the player that you would prefer, based upon their past production (listed below).  For the actual statistics, the numbers will represent the “career averages” for the player in question.  Any of the percentage statistics will be listed as such, while the “counting statistics” will be divided by the number of “full” seasons played.  
***This figure (a “full” season) is basically the total number of career at bats divided by 600, which is approximately a full season, give or take a few at bats.  Doing it in this fashion helps to round out players who may have missed time due to injury or other roster related issues. 

Later in the article, I will reveal who the three players are and add my two cents (of course).    So, let’s get on with it with Players A, B, and C;


                                                          Player A         Player B      Player C   

Career                                  11 YRS (8.56 Seasons)     5 YRS (2.47 Seasons)       7 YRS (4.41 Seasons)     

BA/OBP/SLG/OPS               .270/.331/.420 (.752)         .260/.298/.426 (.725)         .281/.321/.414 (.735)

HR/RBI/SB/RS                      16.2/73.6/10.1/80.8            23.1/81.8/1.0/69.3            10.1/52.7/11.4/73.2

WAR (AVG)                                     3.02                                  0.16                                   3.12

FL%/Er/dWAR                        .978/14.3/0.25                   .974/16.1/-1.46                  .976/12.1/1.07


So, any guesses on who Players A, B and C may be?    A “softball” sized hint is that at least two of them, if not all three are expected to play second base for the 2018 season, despite where they may have played in their past years in MLB.

Which one would you be most interested in for the coming season?   On first blush, you may be interested in Player C, followed by Player A
and then Player B, depending on which characteristic you value the most (i.e. power, defense, speed).  It seems that all three players have a bit of versatility to them, which is interesting as second base may be where utility players settle once they become good enough to play every day. 
Since I am pretty poor at keeping a secret, you may be surprised to learn that Player A is Asdrubal Cabrera (a bit sneaky on my part, since his final position is still up in the air), Player B is our very own Wilmer Flores and Player C is the recently popular trade target Josh Harrison. 
If you simply follow the "talking heads" when they discuss the listed players, AC is nearing the end of his career and is likely to be our third baseman for 2018, WF is basically a DH in a league that does not have one and JH is overrated or perhaps overpriced for what he offers a team. 
***One thing to remember is that each of the listed players have played all over the field as various points in their careers.  For example, when discussing second base, AC has only played 17.5% of his games there, while WF has only played 19% and JH 35%.  In short, none of them are “full time second baseman”, although JH is probably the closest.  That will likely impact the quality of the defense that each player will offer to the Mets in 2018, with JH having the best defensive statistics of a rather pedestrian lot (or, you could look at what WF “offers” defensively and run screaming for the hills). 
The listed statistics are one thing, but what about costs?  Again, this is the Mets we are talking about and that still matters in the grand scheme of things.   
Well, AC and WF are both on the 2018 roster already, as you know.  AC is slated to make 8.5 million dollars this year and WF will make roughly 3.4 million dollars, which comes out to 11.9 million dollars combined (or 1.65 million dollars more then what JH is scheduled to earn this year by himself).  Both players have been in NY long enough that we can safely say they are comfortable in the “crazy” media market.   
JH is currently the property of the Pittsburgh Pirates, so the Mets would have to deal valuable assets to acquire his services.  Add to that the cost of his current contract (with two option years) and the uncertainty of his transition from "sleepy" Pittsburgh to New York and you have an intriguing and unpredictable situation, which would be as weird as it looks in print. 
However, with all things being equal, I would take JH at second base over the other two players.  He is the most "complete fit” since he offers the most versatility in the field, the ability to bat at the top of the order, above average speed and solid defense.   However, all things are NOT equal since he is relatively expensive and the package of prospects needed to obtain his services would be painful to part with, especially since our system is a bit light at the upper levels. 
You basically have to convince yourself that JH would offer enough of an upgrade over WF and AC, to justify the listed costs.   
Plus, if the Mets land a free agent third baseman like Todd Frazier (which I think will happen), then AC would have to move to second base in order to stay in the lineup and justify his relatively large salary for the year.   
That’s not to say I don’t like WF as a player (OK, I like his bat well enough, just not his glove).  In my opinion, he is a solid bench piece who can play against tough lefties and serve as a utility player and pinch hitter.  He is not a starting caliber player at second base for a contender due to his horrendous defense (hopefully he does not read this and get offended in some way). 
So, if I were tasked with this decision, I would hope that I previously signed Todd Frazier to play third base.  In that scenario, AC becomes my regular second baseman and WF my primary utility player on the bench.  I think the Mets are a stronger team in that configuration and it is also the strongest defensive lineup with what is on hand.   There are still question marks at the top of the batting order, but no team is perfect. 
As much as I thought I liked JH, I simply cannot justify the excessive costs for the small difference in performance over someone that is already on the roster (so, there you have it, I have changed my mind again).

21 comments:

  1. I truly wonder if they think that Andres Gimenez could be ready to call up by mid-2019 and thus don't want a long term deal clogging the infield. That could be the Harrison impediment.

    I read that Gimenez has added muscle this offseason, is a great fielding SS, and is far advanced with the bat. Maybe he scorches his way thru High A, AA, and AAA in 2018. Nothing he did in 2017 tells me he can't...a tremendous year in A ball in Columbia as an 18 year old. He's special.

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  2. How many more infielders is this team suppose to add before the season starts?

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  3. I am in total agreement with you. Adding Frazier solves 3B and adds RH power to a weak lineup. I also agree that Cabs, with help from Reyes, Flores and TJ, will remain healthy and be able to handle the bulk of 2B duties w. rest. Frazier is also versatile and can play 1B against tough LHs. I actually like this team w. Frazier added. They can tweek the BP and SP as they gain some knowlege and the ability of the staff.

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  4. I hear you Mack.......I would designate Reynolds and put Gavin back at AAA (if he has any options left). Frazier takes one spot and a lefty reliever takes a spot?

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  5. For Commoners like us, Common is my guy, Mack....I do hate my Tablet which has to be watched like a hawk as it constantly misspells already correctly spelled words.

    I am good with them getting Frazier. too, Michael Cala.

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  6. Guys -

    I never lose a second of sleep regarding who I cast off.

    All I worry about is improving what I have.

    We need a better infielder, that plays ++ defense at multiple positions and can hit a baseball

    My vote is Frazier.

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  7. Agreed.......Frazier, Rosario, Cabrera and Gonzalez to start the year with Flores and Reyes in reserve.

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  8. I would prefer a high average, high OBP type for 2nd or 3rd. I just don't know that one is available.

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  9. Mike, Flores and Reyes as reserves? That is good quality IMO. Contrast to when Tejada STARTED at SS.

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  10. Yeah, I think they would be a solid tandem to back up all of the infield spots (minus Catcher). Add Plawecki and Nimmo to the bench and those four have you reasonably covered for days off, pinch hitting, etc.

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  11. Who wants to bet Reyes winds up starting? Oh wait... there's a new manager who may actually let the best man play.

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  12. Is Kipnis off the table? Because if not, Frazier doesn’t do it for me as I don’t know how much better he would be over Cabrera. But, add Kipnis’ stick and with improved pitching...

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  13. Please no Frazier. The Mets do not need a .220 hitter.

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  14. Adding Frazier wouldn’t bump Cabrera from the lineup........it would move him to second base. It would move Flores to the bench where he is arguably better suited.

    Fosuing on just batting average is short sighted......Frazier would upgrade the infield defense and add power to the lineup, for starters, That and he is also a 3+ WAR player on a consistent basis, compared to Wilmer who simply isn’t as good of a player (especially with the glove).

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    Replies
    1. Arguably Flores is better suited as a starter:
      Ex- Kent & Murphy

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  15. I have lived through too many instances of:
    2 to 3 men on base with 1 or less outs in which the Mets left the inning with 1 or less runs.

    All of the walks got men on base for them to rot because hitters (yes, the are called hitters not walkers) struck out, popped out, grounded into double plays or to an infielder that looked the runner back to 3rd base.

    Avg matters.

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  16. Average is one component, but it is not the only statistic that matters and using it as the primary determinant of a player's worth is short sighted, but we can agree to disagree on that issue.

    Comparing Flores to Kent and Murphy is not a fair comparison, IMO. Kent is a borderline HOF second baseman who (sadly) blossomed after leaving the Mets. He was superior in every way when compared to Flores, he did his thing for almost seventeen seasons and it isn't close.

    Murphy also blossomed after leaving the Mets (disturbing trend, perhaps) and is a better comparison to Flores then Kent. However, Murph is a superior offensive player and as bad as he looks int he field (at times), he is also a better fielder then Wilmer (which is saying something).

    I like WF, but he is a DH trapped in the NL.

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  17. Just remember this slogan: only butter stands pat.

    Forget butter, spend some bread and win the division!

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  18. I have never said avg is the only thing that matters.

    At issue is that avg is being completely ignored. There are too many .250 and below avg Mets over the past few years. Sure their OBP was respectable.
    The result was far too many men in scoring position with 1 or less outs and no runs.
    Or 1 run homeruns.

    Hits matter just as much is all the other statistics.

    Stop ignoring it in favor of all those new fangled number crunches.

    The question should not be Flores or Frazier.
    It should be looking for a better option.

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  19. Bob, the still-unsigned Duda's departure could be addition by subtraction when it comes to the team driving runners in.

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  20. Meanwhile, I still don't see a true leadoff man on the team. Frazier doesn't solve that problem.

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