Michael Friere - So, Let's Make Another Deal!

OK, so my previous effort under this title was not necessarily aimed at starting a series, but after submitting the article, I figured that we could address several positions on the Mets current roster in this fashion.  As a quick review, I am not above admitting that I have been wrong before and that possibility led to a deeper statistical analysis on certain players that “I thought I knew”, if that makes sense. 

In true “Let’s Make A Deal” fashion, I will list three alternatives below much like the previous article, only this one will not focus on third base.  I want each of you to select the player that you would prefer, based upon their past production (listed below).  For the actual statistics, the numbers will represent the “career averages” for the player in question.  Any of the percentage statistics will be listed as such, while the “counting statistics” will be divided by the number of “full” seasons played.  

***This figure (a “full” season) is basically the total number of career at bats divided by 600, which is approximately a full season, give or take a few at bats.  Doing it in this fashion helps to round out players who may have missed time due to injury or other roster related issues. 

Later in the article, I will reveal who the three players are and add my two cents (of course).    So, let’s get on with it with Players A, B, and C;

                                                          Player A         Player B      Player C   

Career                                  11 YRS (8.56 Seasons)     5 YRS (2.47 Seasons)       7 YRS (4.41 Seasons)     

BA/OBP/SLG/OPS               .270/.331/.420 (.752)         .260/.298/.426 (.725)         .281/.321/.414 (.735)

HR/RBI/SB/RS                      16.2/73.6/10.1/80.8            23.1/81.8/1.0/69.3            10.1/52.7/11.4/73.2

WAR (AVG)                                     3.02                                  0.16                                   3.12

FL%/Er/dWAR                        .978/14.3/0.25                   .974/16.1/-1.46                  .976/12.1/1.07

So, any guesses on who Players A, B and C may be?    A “softball” sized hint is that at least two of them, if not all three are expected to play second base for the 2018 season, despite where they may have played in their past years in MLB.

Which one would you be most interested in for the coming season?   On first blush, you may be interested in Player C, followed by Player A

and then Player B, depending on which characteristic you value the most (i.e. power, defense, speed).  It seems that all three players have a bit of versatility to them, which is interesting as second base may be where utility players settle once they become good enough to play every day. 

Since I am pretty poor at keeping a secret, you may be surprised to learn that Player A is Asdrubal Cabrera (a bit sneaky on my part, since his final position is still up in the air), Player B is our very own Wilmer Flores and Player C is the recently popular trade target Josh Harrison. 

If you simply follow the "talking heads" when they discuss the listed players, AC is nearing the end of his career and is likely to be our third baseman for 2018, WF is basically a DH in a league that does not have one and JH is overrated or perhaps overpriced for what he offers a team. 

***One thing to remember is that each of the listed players have played all over the field as various points in their careers.  For example, when discussing second base, AC has only played 17.5% of his games there, while WF has only played 19% and JH 35%.  In short, none of them are “full time second baseman”, although JH is probably the closest.  That will likely impact the quality of the defense that each player will offer to the Mets in 2018, with JH having the best defensive statistics of a rather pedestrian lot (or, you could look at what WF “offers” defensively and run screaming for the hills). 

The listed statistics are one thing, but what about costs?  Again, this is the Mets we are talking about and that still matters in the grand scheme of things.   

Well, AC and WF are both on the 2018 roster already, as you know.  AC is slated to make 8.5 million dollars this year and WF will make roughly 3.4 million dollars, which comes out to 11.9 million dollars combined (or 1.65 million dollars more then what JH is scheduled to earn this year by himself).  Both players have been in NY long enough that we can safely say they are comfortable in the “crazy” media market.   

JH is currently the property of the Pittsburgh Pirates, so the Mets would have to deal valuable assets to acquire his services.  Add to that the cost of his current contract (with two option years) and the uncertainty of his transition from "sleepy" Pittsburgh to New York and you have an intriguing and unpredictable situation, which would be as weird as it looks in print. 

However, with all things being equal, I would take JH at second base over the other two players.  He is the most "complete fit” since he offers the most versatility in the field, the ability to bat at the top of the order, above average speed and solid defense.   However, all things are NOT equal since he is relatively expensive and the package of prospects needed to obtain his services would be painful to part with, especially since our system is a bit light at the upper levels. 

You basically have to convince yourself that JH would offer enough of an upgrade over WF and AC, to justify the listed costs.   

Plus, if the Mets land a free agent third baseman like Todd Frazier (which I think will happen), then AC would have to move to second base in order to stay in the lineup and justify his relatively large salary for the year.   

That’s not to say I don’t like WF as a player (OK, I like his bat well enough, just not his glove).  In my opinion, he is a solid bench piece who can play against tough lefties and serve as a utility player and pinch hitter.  He is not a starting caliber player at second base for a contender due to his horrendous defense (hopefully he does not read this and get offended in some way). 

So, if I were tasked with this decision, I would hope that I previously signed Todd Frazier to play third base.  In that scenario, AC becomes my regular second baseman and WF my primary utility player on the bench.  I think the Mets are a stronger team in that configuration and it is also the strongest defensive lineup with what is on hand.   There are still question marks at the top of the batting order, but no team is perfect. 

As much as I thought I liked JH, I simply cannot justify the excessive costs for the small difference in performance over someone that is already on the roster (so, there you have it, I have changed my mind again).