Reese Kaplan -- Is the Current Bullpen Enough?

                                                                         

One of the recent trends for playoff bound teams has been to create a shutdown bullpen where you have any number of weapons as your disposal when it gets to crunch time once the starting pitcher comes out of the game.  We saw the Yankees and other teams employ his approach. 

According to Mickey Callaway and Dave Eiland, the new pitching braintrust, the possibility exists that the Mets may not employ the traditional fixed roles for the 7^th, 8^th and 9^th innings.  Whether this conjecture comes to fruition or not, the fact remains that there are people who question the depth and quality of the players the Mets currently have at their disposal for the bullpen. 

If the season started this week and nothing changed in the manner in which relief pitchers are used, then you would most certainly expect Jeurys Familia to be the closer.  While he was prone to the occasional antacid moments during his two years in that role, it’s hard to argue with success.  In 2015 he led the World Series bound team with 43 saves and a 1.85 ERA, then followed it up with a record setting 51 saves and 2.55 ERA in 2016.   Last year’s off-the-field problem that led to a suspension in the beginning of the year and then the subsequent arterial blood clot that cost him most of the rest of the lost 2017 season.

The person most likely to challenge Familia should health issues deter him from reclaiming his role as closer is AJ Ramos who served as a closer for the Miami Marlins for several years.  He has a 40-save season on his resume as well and for his career trails Familia 106-99 in saves.  His lackluster debut with the Mets last season notwithstanding, he still owns a career ERA of 2.88 which compares favorably to Familia’s mark of 2.99.  Ramos’ problem has always been control.  He’s a high strikeout guy with as many as 12.5 per 9 IP, but he’s also unfortunately walked as many as 6 per 9 IP over the course of a full season.  Still, his career record is pretty impressive despite putting issuing a large number of free passes.

Your primary left handed setup guy is once again Jerry Blevins who has been pretty automatic since putting on a Mets uniform.  Since coming to the club in 2015 he has appeared in 155 games, struck out over 11 per 9 IP, sports a record of 11-2 and an ERA of 2.72.  He’s been rock steady and hopefully won’t suffer from overuse. 

The wildcard in the bunch is the gamble Sandy Alderson made based upon one dramatically better year by Anthony Swarzak.  For his career, he sports a rather pedestrian 4.22 ERA with just over 6 Ks per 9 IP.  However, last year was either a breakthrough or an outlier.  In 2017 for both the White Sox and Brewers he went a combined 6-4 with a 2.33 ERA, 10.6 Ks per 9 IP and a WHIP around 1.000.  The Mets are hoping something “clicked” and he can repeat that success for them in Queens. 

After that the bullpen picture gets a bit murkier.  Frontrunners Paul Sewald, Hansel Robles and Josh Smoker finished the year with ERAs that ranged from 4.55 to 5.11.  Given how badly Sewald was overused and the arm woes of Smoker, there’s some hope for improvement.  In Robles’ case, they’re banking on him recapturing his form from his first two years where he was 10-7 with a 3.55 ERA and 10 Ks per 9 IP. 

After that come guys with very limited track records in the bullpen.  You have newcomers Jacob Rhame and Jamie Callahan, both hard throwers, but there’s potential there.  Callahan’s numbers in the minors at first glance are pretty mediocre – 4.71 career ERA and a 1.464 WHIP.  However, since being converted from starter to reliever everything improved – his strikeouts, his control and his ERA.  Rhame was always a reliever and his 10-19 career minor league record doesn’t stand out, but his resume shows an ERA over 5 years in professional ball of just 3.07 (which included stints for the Dodgers and Mets in the notoriously pitching hostile environment of the Pacific Coast League). 

Then you have the emergency starters who may get shuffled to the pen – Rafael Montero, Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman fall into this category.  Since both Lugo and Gsellman have options they may be sent to AAA to continue to work as starters in case the need arises due to injuries on the big club.  As bad as he’s been, Rafael Montero may have the inside track to a spot in the pen simply because he is out of options and the Mets have allowed many other pitchers go while still holding onto the enigmatic righthander. 

Now on the surface the bullpen starts out strongly with the first three pitchers, then you have the Swarzak wildcard, but then it starts to seem a little shaky based upon recent history.  Some would say the Mets erred in not pursuing Addison Reed or another similar experience pitcher (Tony Watson, for example) to help fortify the pen.  That may or may not be true, but you can take some solace in the fact that a great many pitchers who wore a Mets uniform in 2017 will not be doing so again this year, including Fernando Salas, Adam Wilk, Tommy Milone, Neil Ramirez, Tyler Pill, Erik Goeddel, Sean Gilmartin, Chasen Bradford and Josh Edgin.  Chris Flexen will likely be starting in Las Vegas and Kevin McGowan will be in the pen down there, too. 

Then again, when all else fails, Kevin Plawecki is available.  His season ERA of 12.00 actually bests Gilmartin and Wilk.  J