Reese Kaplan -- Who Goes North to Queens?

So here we sit less than a month from pitchers and catchers reporting, but there are a number of holes and questions surrounding the NY Mets prospective roster going north with the club.  It's nice to see Yoenis Cespedes, Wilmer Flores, Juan Lagares and Amed Rosario already voluntarily working out in Port St. Lucie.

Now it’s possible that trades or FA signings could take place between now and then, but given the inertia that has earmarked the Sandy Alderson administration, you would think that what you have is likely what you’re going to get. 

As it stands right now, the Mets have 42 men for the 40 man-roster.  Neither Jay Bruce nor Adrian Gonzalez have officially been added as players though word has filtered out about a press conference today scheduled to make the Bruce deal official.  They’re stalling on the basis of physicals being passed and also theoretically to work out trades of people who otherwise would have to be dropped from the roster to make room.

If you were handicapping the 25-man roster race you would have to assume a certain number of givens:

Adrian Gonzalez (barring major injury or horrendous spring)

Wilmer Flores

Amed Rosario

Asdrubel Cabrera

Travis d’Arnaud

Kevin Plawecki

Yoenis Cespedes

Juan Lagares

Brandon Nimmo

Jay Bruce

Jacob deGrom

Noah Syndergaard

Matt Harvey

Steve Matz

Jeurys Familia

A.J. Ramos

Jerry Blevins

Anthony Swarzak

I count 18 sure things to be on the roster assuming none are dealt away in…what do you call it again when a competent general manager exchanges players on his roster for players on another team’s roster that you think can better help your team to succeed?  I don’t remember!

Michael Conforto, David Wright and T.J. Rivera are all likely slated to start the year on the DL.  The arrival of a left handed first base only option like Gonzalez means that the other left handed first base only alternative, Dom Smith, is probably ticketed for AAA as he still has minor league options available.  Seth Lugo, Robert Gsellman, Paul Sewald, Chasen Bradford, Hansel Robles, Chris Flexen and Josh Smoker all have options, so their spots on the 25-man roster are far from guaranteed.  Kevin McGowan and Matt Reynolds are probably hanging onto their spots by their fingernails.    Rafael Montero is out of options.  Then there are the collection of newcomers who got a cup of coffee in September who will likely be given a look in spring training, including Jacob Rahme and Jamie Callahan.  Others on the 40-man roster have not advanced enough in the minors to be in consideration.

Rumors abound that the club is looking at an 8 man pen.  Add 5 starters and 8 position players.  That leaves just 4 roster spots for the bench.  Let’s see if the season started today if we can figure out who would come north.

One name I have not yet mentioned is Zack Wheeler.  His health has never been the same since the initial injury and he is taking the Mets to arbitration.  Being a somewhat vindictive organization (and one tired of waiting for his potential to be realized), I fully expect he is being shopped in trades right now.  I will be very surprised if he comes north with the club, but if he does, it may be as a relief pitcher rather than as a starter.  That would be the 5^th arm in the pen.

Paul Sewald looked unhittable for long stretches last year and I suspect he’s got an inside track to getting one of the remaining spots.  He is a “traditional” reliever with closing experience in the minors.  He seems almost a lock.

Josh Smoker is left handed and that most definitely stands in his favor.  He is the very definition of a live arm, but control has been his Achilles heel.  Still, the strikeout numbers make pitching coaches drool and he’s likely locked up one of the other bullpen spots. 

With 7 arms already identified, the final spot comes down to a battle between Hansel Robles, Rafael Montero, Chasen Bradford, Jacob Rhame, Jamie Callahan, Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman.  Now a reasonable person would think that you could parlay some of this excess right handed pitching into left handed pitching, but hey, what do I know? One of those three starters -- Gsellman, Lugo or Montero -- will likely earn 5th starter rights if Wheeler is indeed bullpen bound.  

One dark horse candidate to watch who is not on the 40-man roster is lefty Kyle Regnault, salvaged from the independent leagues to show great success in the pitching hell of Las Vegas.  He managed to appear in 34 games yet maintained a respectable 3.28 ERA.  He’s no kid at 29 but just as they once rescued Scott Rice to be a gray haired rookie, so too might they venture down that path again with Regnault. 

If the season opened today the Mets would only have four outfielders – Cespedes, Bruce, Lagares and Nimmo.  One would think a multi-position player who could handle both infield and outfield duties would be made to order, like Howie Kendrick.  Oops…2 years and $7 million total for a guy coming off a $10 million salary apparently was not to Mr. Alderson’s liking. 

Kevin Plawecki has sewn up one of those available roster spots.  Wilmer Flores, warts and all, can play any of the four infield positions but if the season started today he’s likely the guy penciled in at 2B.  Nimmo has another spot.  So you have two vacancies.  One is likely a true infielder and one is likely a swing man infield/outfield type. 

Of the bodies on the current 40-man roster you have Gavin Cecchini who has played both middle infield positions, Matt Reynolds who has played both infield and outfield, and Luis Guillorme who has not played above AA.  There are no additional outfielders.

It would seem that the final few roster spots are yet to be determined and will likely require an infusion of people from outside the organization unless you are prepared to go with Cecchini and Reynolds along with Plawecki and Nimmo on the bench.  That’s not exactly Murderer’s Row. 

I have suggested that the Adrian Gonzalez thing could be a prelude to a trade involving one of the younger first baseman – Smith or Pete Alonso.  There is an excess of pitching.  There are a few decent prospects on paper in Corey Oswalt and Marcos Molina.  Wilmer Flores is also a desirable chip for other clubs.  So too might Brandon Nimmo and Juan Lagares have trade value.  For the folks who say the Mets have nothing to trade, I think they’re selling the resources short.  Now to say they may not have the smarts, the creativity or the chutzpah to pull the trigger – those are fairer assessments. 

In conclusion, barring any surprises, I see more Jose Reyes in the team’s future.    It's the familiar, the reasonably priced and the least creative thing Sandy Alderson can do.  Write it in ink.